WNBA Finals Film Room: Can Mercury Upset Aces?

The WNBA Finals film room is here.

It’s Las Vegas’ third Finals appearance in four years and Phoenix’s second Finals appearance in five years.

Las Vegas won the regular-season series between the two teams 3-1. 

Halfway through the year, Las Vegas was .500 and fighting for a playoff spot. Since then, the Aces have clawed their way back to the Finals.

For Phoenix, they won eight of their last 12 to close the regular season and earn home court advantage in the first round.

Let’s look at the WNBA Finals matchup on film.

Aces’ Switch Defense

Las Vegas likes to switch a ton of action to negate ball movement.

The Aces switch the down screens for Kahleah Copper to prevent an advantage. They switch two more on-ball screens for Monique Akoa-Makani to keep her on the perimeter.

Las Vegas switches one more time on a toss for Satou Sabally, and by that time, they have forced a shot clock violation.

It’s their versatility and trusting the lineups on the floor to guard mismatches.

Copper takes a dribble handoff, and A’ja Wilson meets her on the switch. Copper resets after picking up her dribble, gets the rock back, and she can only generate a heavily contested three-pointer.

Mercury Plays Chess to Answer Aces’ Switch Defense

While Las Vegas’ switches take Phoenix out of their set plays, Phoenix can take advantage of mismatches off a switch.

Sami Whitcomb sets an inverted screen (the guard setting the screen for the big) for Alyssa Thomas to get a mismatch. Whitcomb sets a hard screen on Wilson; regardless, the Aces were likely going to switch.

Thomas uses her body to barrel over Jewell Loyd and scores inside as the help defense comes late.

Same thing here:

Whitcomb sets a back screen for Sabally. Las Vegas switches, and now Sabally has a guard on her.

Notice Dewanna Bonner makes a swing pass to Natasha Mack. Bonner wanted to get the ball to Sabally, but didn’t have a good enough passing angle.

Mack makes a good entry pass to Sabally, who finishes the layup with her back turned to the basket.

Thomas in PNR defense

One of the things Las Vegas exploited in the regular-season matchup was when Thomas blitzed a pick-and-roll action.

Here, Phoenix blitzes, putting two on the ball. Jackie Young counters and finds a passing angle to Cheslea Gray. Now that they have created a four-on-three advantage, Gray fires a pass to NaLyssa Smith below the rim for the deuce.

This time, Thomas is on the ball. Phoenix aggressively blitzes Young again. Young uses a retreat dribble going backwards to create a better passing angle and get the rock to Wilson.

Wilson now has a guard – Whitcomb on her. Whitcomb can only make a poor gamble on the entry pass, and it’s another easy two at the cup.

Aces’ Set Plays

Las Vegas is terrific at executing set plays. They run a variation of Spain pick-and-roll, an on-ball screen with a back screen (typically by a shooter) on the roller’s man. The player who sets the back screen will pop out to the perimeter.

The Aces’ top players are involved in this action. 

Wilson sets the on-ball screen for Loyd. Gray sets a brush screen – light contact on the screen for Wilson before popping out to the perimeter.

Thomas gets caught behind the play as she tries to switch back onto Wilson, and it results in an open lane for Wilson to roll to the cup for a lay-in.

Final Thoughts and Prediction 

For Phoenix, there’s a mutual benefit; the team is seeking their first title since 2014, and Thomas is 0-2 in the Finals.

Las Vegas wants to be called a dynasty, looking for their third championship in four years.

Phoenix in seven.