Anaheim Ducks Took a Gamble on Leo Carlsson’s Contract

The Anaheim Ducks made a major statement this past Thursday. It came with the decision to match the Leo Carlsson offer sheet from the Philadelphia Flyers. The new deal for Carlsson is set to be for five years at a record-breaking $18 million a year. It shows what new-age NHL contracts will look like and that the Ducks are taking a major gamble.

Carlsson’s Quick Rise

Carlsson, 21, is one of the brightest stars in the game. He’s coming off an exceptional season in which he posted career highs in goals (29), assists (38), and points (67). On top of this, he helped the Ducks make a deep run into the second round of this year’s Stanley Cup playoffs. While impressive, the contract is one that he could struggle to live up to.

It’s not because of Carlsson’s skills or potential. It has more to do with the expectations of someone who’s still not fully developed. He’s progressed well, but he needs another year or two before he gets into his true prime. For this, the contract itself looks more like a major risk than true value.

The other potential issue is having enough money to build the team around the young guys like Leo Carlsson. Ducks general manager Pat Verbeek just re-signed Pavel Mintyukov to a long-term deal with an AAV of $7.2 million. He also still needs to lock up RFA Cutter Gauthier to a new deal, which could now be higher than initially expected. Even with the salary cap going up, these long-term contracts could make things harder for Verbeek to build around.

The Ducks have had an up-and-down offseason. They’ve lost key players such as Olen Zellweger, Mason McTavish, and Jacob Trouba. As mentioned, Anaheim only has $9 million in cap space.

Ducks Need to Shed Salary

Most likely, Verbeek will have to shed some salary to create more space for a new Gauthier agreement. That could mean losing more key guys like Troy Terry, Chris Kreider, and/or Frank Vatrano. Doing so would certainly weaken the depth that was vital to the Ducks’ success in 2025-26.

That’s another major reason why the Carlsson deal is a major gamble for the Ducks. Not just for the player themselves, but for the future of the Southern California franchise. It’s always possible that Carlsson could live up to the deal in the long-run. Even if he does, it may not be enough to build a consistent winner in Anaheim.