This morning felt different.
I stepped outside and felt a slight chill in the air, and even thought about throwing on a sweatshirt. My car’s engine took an extra rev to start. I stepped on a dried-up leaf on the sidewalk, and it satisfactorily crunched and cracked beneath my shoe. That’s when I knew: playoff baseball was here.
There is under a week left in the 2026 regular season of Major League Baseball. Of the four Wild Card series starting on Tuesday, just one matchup is set. That leaves so much to be settled in so few games. So much so that anything can happen.
Here are the boldest predictions and possible outcomes in the homestretch of one of the most unique seasons in baseball history.
The San Diego Padres Will Host a Wild Card series
At the All-Star break, the San Diego Padres were an even 48-48. But somehow, that record felt generous for how the Padres were playing. At the time, San Diego had the third-worst offense in wRC+ and was dead last in runs.
One of the most exciting and energizing teams in the league had seemingly lost their edge. The Padres were in 10th place in the National League and 5.5 games behind the Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies, who held the top two Wild Card spots all year.
Then something clicked. The lineup explosively turned around, primarily led by $340 million outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. At the All-Star break, Tatis Jr. had five home runs. Since then, he’s hit 20 bombs in 59 games while slashing a .292 average, .371 OBP and blazing .601 SLG.
The wins slowly started to add up, but it wasn’t until September that the Padres ignited. San Diego’s gone on eight and five game win streaks and has won 14 of its last 16 games. This stretch effectively ended the Wild Card race and has even propelled them above the Cubs and Phillies by one game.
This means the final games between the three determine who plays who, or more importantly, who hosts who in next week’s Wild Card series. The team that finishes last out of the trio will face the Atlanta Braves, who clinched the NL East on Sunday. The first-place team will host the second-place team in the three-game series.
The idea of the Padres hosting a Wild Card series was unfathomable just weeks ago. But this run will enter San Diego as the hottest team in October, able to stack up against anyone.
The Chicago White Sox Will Take the AL Central
The darling Chicago White Sox have unpredictably led the AL Central for the majority of the season. Chicago’s been the best story of 2026, with that story far from over.
The White Sox opened September 3-7 and gave up the lead in the division to the Cleveland Guardians last Wednesday. Chicago was in first since July 22.
Late-season comebacks are something Cleveland is accustomed to. Just last year, the Guardians unbelievably erased an 11-game deficit against the Detroit Tigers in 20 days. The Guardians went on to win the division but lost to Detroit in the Wild Card series.
Thankfully for Chicago, the Colorado Rockies come into town for the final series of the regular season. The Guardians wrap up a series against the playoff-prepped Boston Red Sox, then travel to play their final three games against the Kansas City Royals. The Royals record doesn’t blow the Rockies out of the water, but since the break, Kansas City’s gone 29-31.
Another blessing for Chicago is that they just need to tie Cleveland at the end of the season. The White Sox clinched the tiebreaker over the Guardians on Sept. 14 amid their release of first place.
Winning the AL Central doesn’t just give Midwest bragging rights and another banner; it’ll deliver a playoff bye. The poor state of the AL West confirms that whoever comes out on top will host an AL Division Series. With how the bracket’s shaping up, a White Sox-Guardians best-of-five ALDS seems imminent.
However, as of Sept. 23, the White Sox trail by one game with four to play. The South Siders will have to handle the Rockies, then cheer on their division-rival Royals. Cleveland has been playing winning baseball through September, but the art of the “spoiler” never fails to ingrain.
The Houston Astros Will Become the Worst Division Winner in MLB History
The worst division winner in MLB history belongs to the 2005 Padres, who won the NL West at 82-80. With four games to play, the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers are tied for first in the AL West at 78-80.
Not only will the Padres’ record likely be broken, but baseball could see its first sub-.500 division winner. The Astros visit the abysmal Athletics for their final four games, and the Rangers visit the less-abysmal Minnesota Twins.
Texas had a golden opportunity to close out the West this week, hosting the truly abysmal New York Mets. The Rangers lost that series and gave up a one-game lead while doing so.
The not-so-brutal, honest truth is that neither of these clubs deserves to win a division. The fanbases would say so themselves. In another world, both the Rangers’ and Astros’ seasons would be over by August and focused on next year. Instead, two games below .500 entering the final weekend, they’re in a heated division race with playoffs at stake.
The bracket format would pit whoever wins the mild, mild West against the loser of the Central. No matter White Sox-Guardians or Rangers-Astros, the Central’s representative will be favored. That said, winning the West will either give Houston or Texas home-field advantage in that best-of-three. This season, the Rangers have the fourth-most home wins in the AL, compared to the Astros’ 11th-most.
If the season ended in today’s tie, the Astros would win via the tiebreaker. It’d be Houston’s eighth AL West title in the last decade.
This isn’t a battle of the best team; it’s a thrilling battle of who’s worse.
In true 2026 season fashion, it all comes down to the final weekend. With the real fun around the corner, baseball fans can just sit back and enjoy.
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