There have been few constants for the Boston Celtics this season.
Rotation players suffering injuries, blowing fourth-quarter leads, and an unpredictable rotation are some of the lone consistencies Celtics fans have seen this year.
Take a deeper look at these issues and a trend emerges.
Are the unpredictable rotations the product of a team incessantly dealing with injuries? Are the 4th quarter meltdowns the result of playing lineups lacking chemistry? Is there a consistent pattern to who does and does not come off the bench? To answer some of these questions, a deep look has to be taken at the Celtics’ inconsistent bench.
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Lack of Health to Blame?
It has to be recognized that the Celtics have not been a fully healthy basketball team this year.
At all.
Kemba Walker missed the first 12 games of the 2020-2021 season after receiving a stem-cell injection in that infamous left knee. Jayson Tatum then contracted COVID-19 and missed Walker’s first four games. The Celtics played their first game with the intended starting lineup on the 17th game of the season.
On game No. 18, a showdown with the Los Angeles Lakers, Marcus Smart suffered a Grade 1 left calf strain, sidelining him for the proceeding weeks. Add in to that Jaylen Brown‘s recent absence due to knee soreness, Payton Pritchard‘s sprained MCL and Romeo Langford‘s prolonged surgery recovery, and it’s clear the Celtics have faced a myriad of injuries.
Furthering the point, the statistic below shines a light on the lack of floor time the Celtics’ intended starting lineup has had this season.
Celtics head coach Brad Stevens is in a tough spot. Due to the injuries, there are a lot of minutes up for grabs. The challenge lies in the fact that the players competing for these minutes are relatively inexperienced. Is this to say Stevens is at fault for the inconsistencies among the bench?
No. But has he made some questionable decisions regarding which players get to see the court? Yes.
Grant Williams
Grant Williams serves as an example of the Celtics’ inconsistent bench. Inconsistency has been a theme of Williams’ career in the NBA due to both his play and Stevens’ rotations. This season, Williams has seen an average of 19.1 minutes of floor-time per game, a respectable average for a bench-big on a team full of bigs.
The kicker comes in the breakdown of Williams’ minutes.
The standard deviation of Williams’ minutes in each individual game he’s appeared in is 6.43. The standard deviation of Alex Caruso‘s minutes in each game (his minute per game total is at 18.6, extremely comparable to Williams’) is 2.89. This SD proves that despite averaging 19.1 minutes per game, Williams rarely actually plays around that 18-minute mark. Instead, it’s common to see Williams hover around either 12 or 23 minutes.
It’s also worth noting Williams started for the Celtics during a three-game stretch in mid-January. Daniel Theis and Tristan Thompson, the go-to bigs in the starting lineup were both healthy– Stevens was just wanting to switch things up. A little over a week after Williams’ 3rd start of the season, he didn’t see one second of on-court action during a game against the Lakers. The following game he played 27 minutes, one off his high for the season.
It’s clear Williams has yet to carve out a definitive role among the Celtics, and he likely will not without receiving more consistent minutes.
Tremont Waters
Tremont Waters is another noteworthy case. Waters, a second-year player like Williams, has less of a role. Waters primarily plays off the end of the bench, usually making appearances at the end of blowouts. In a game against the Kings on February 3rd, Waters logged 23 minutes in the absences of Walker and Pritchard.
Lack of point-guard depth provides justification for the increase in Waters’ minutes for the game. But the question must be asked, why Waters and not Carsen Edwards? Has Waters earned the call over Edwards? Edwards is yet another second-year player for the Celtics, also at the point-guard position, playing just eight minutes against the Kings.
Edwards scores more points, grabs more rebounds and is a statistically better shooter on per-game averages and per-36 minute averages. Watch a game when both players get floor time and who passes the eye test? Edwards. While he should have gotten the call against the Kings, that’s not the overarching point.
Reality Check
The point is– the Celtics’ inconsistent bench is full of young, unestablished players all fighting for a chance. At full health, the Celtics have two bench players who have been in the league longer than four years. Having this much youth is tricky. Players who don’t see consistent minutes have a subliminal feeling to overcompensate when in the game to try and prove their worth. Cue Waters’ 1-8 showing against the Kings.
Not only are the Celtics young, they also have an imbalance among position players. The Celtics drafted two 6’0-or-under point guards in 2019 and selected a 6’1 point guard in the 2020 draft. Perhaps focusing on the development of just one young ball handler rather than toggling between a bevy of them would help build much-needed consistency.
Clarity Needed
All of this should be taken with a grain of salt. We are barely a third of the way into the 2020-21 season. The Cs are a very young team and with a few new pieces acquired in the offseason, the rotation will take some time.
Working out the kinks doesn’t happen overnight, but it’s the approach to working out these kinks that has raised some eyebrows. Perhaps the ever-changing rotation will allow a couple unexpected players to step up and earn some minutes. Or, Boston’s inconsistent bench-minute distribution prevents this team from finding a true rhythm and reaching its full potential.
It’s too early to tell, but the early signs haven’t been promising.
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