Buffalo’s Offense Has a Limited Winning Formula

The Buffalo Bills’ offense is far from rocket science.

They are currently fifth in points per game (28.3), and they’ve found a simple formula to put up points on the board.

Buffalo doesn’t possess an elite group of weapons for Josh Allen, so it’s about putting them in comfortable schemes that set them up for success. They have answers to help address the lack of talent in their skill positions. 

When facing man coverage

Allen is 14th among quarterbacks in pass EPA and has thrown four touchdowns and four interceptions against man coverage. 

The weakness to exploit against man coverage is that a mobile quarterback has scrambling opportunities when the defenders’ backs are turned to the ball.

Allen is second among quarterbacks in rush EPA and rush yards (117), so when the Bills offense sees man coverage, one of their main answers is Allen’s legs.

The combination of Allen rolling out of the pocket to find daylight and the depth of the receivers’ routes helps create a lane for Buffalo to convert a third and long.

However, Buffalo’s weapons are struggling to find separation against man coverage. It’s the play designs that get them opportunities to make plays. 

On this play, there is Keon Coleman, a possession receiver, running a fade route. Khalil Shakir is the slot receiver running an in-breaking route towards space where he can get yards after the catch. Kincaid has a post route against a linebacker. 

So every receiving threat has a route towards their strength. Kincaid wins his matchup against man coverage for a walk-in touchdown.

When facing zone coverage

Allen is third among quarterbacks in pass EPA and has thrown the most touchdowns (12) while facing zone coverage.

Here’s an example of Buffalo torching a defense, going empty formation to spread them out.

The corner at the top of the screen moving towards the boundary indicates that Tampa Bay is in cover three, meaning three zone defenders each taking a third of the field.

The threat of Allen’s legs gets the corner’s (defending his deep third) eyes caught in the backfield and thus, loses sight of Tyrell Shavers. Allen extends the play and fires a rocket to Shavers to counter Tampa Bay’s cover three. 

On this touchdown, Buffalo finds the mismatch.

They catch an edge defender in zone coverage against a much faster Kincaid, so Allen hits an easy shot to Kincaid before a deep safety can defend the deep right side of the field.

Final thoughts

So when Buffalo recognizes man coverage, it’s going to be on Allen trusting his receivers to separate or use his legs. When it’s zone coverage, expect Allen to hang back in the pocket and trust the scheme for the skillset players to find the open window to make themselves available.

They have limitations in some parts of their offense, but they have answers to support their strengths.