Looking at the 2026 NFL Draft, it’s obvious who will be the top overall pick.
Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is the clear favorite for the Las Vegas Raiders, and rightfully so. Mendoza is one of 18 players to win both the Heisman and the CFB National Championship in the same season, and he has both the size and elite processing of a star quarterback.
But Mendoza is not the best player in this draft. Neither are Arvell Reese, Francis Mauigoa, Spencer Fano, Rueben Bain Jr., or anyone else anticipated to be in the top-10 picks this year.
Ohio State safety Caleb Downs is, undeniably, the best player in the 2026 Draft. If teams ignored the perceived importance of positional value, Downs would contend for the No. 1 overall pick alongside Mendoza.
In reality, any team other than the QB-needy Raiders picking first would probably benefit more from drafting Downs than from the player they are expected to choose according to most mock drafts. So, if Downs is the top raw prospect and the best player in the draft, why isn’t he the clear favorite for at least No. 2 overall?
The Chains of “Positional Value”
The main reason a safety usually doesn’t rank in the top 10 of a draft is due to positional value.
The idea holds that positions like quarterbacks, edge rushers, and tackles are the most valuable because of their “direct” impact on the game. Therefore, they typically earn much higher contracts than other positions. What’s also true of all three of those positions is how valuable veterans are in those roles; it’s just as difficult to find an elite vet as an elite, highly drafted player.
Quarterbacks are the most valuable position on a football team, which is why it would be a huge shock if the Raiders didn’t select Mendoza. In a particularly weak quarterback class, with the outlook for the next few years looking uncertain, the Raiders likely will not risk passing up the most valuable player available.
But for the other teams behind them, the idea that using an early pick on Downs would be a mistake is laughable. There is no clear or concrete evidence showing what the most valuable position, apart from quarterback, is on a play-by-play basis. Pass rush and secondary coverage might be equally important — there are too many variables in a football game to identify this definitively.
How Impactful Are Defensive Backs?
Positional value depends on the salary cap. Downs would basically earn what the top safeties in the league make in a much shorter period than, say, a pass rusher. However, if anything is true, it’s that good defensive backs are directly responsible for many critical plays. And Downs has the abilities of any of those “good” DBs.
Seattle Seahawks cornerback Devon Witherspoon had just as good a case as Kenneth Walker III to be Super Bowl LX MVP. In that game, Witherspoon had 4 solo tackles, 1.0 sack, 1 tackle for loss, a forced fumble, a pass deflection, and a strip-sack that turned into Uchenna Nwosu’s electric pick-six.
Witherspoon, a 25-year-old, has established himself as one of, if not the best, corners in the league in just three seasons. And while Witherspoon is due for a contract extension and will likely become the highest-paid corner in NFL history after his performance in 2025, he’s just one example of what it takes to be a game-wrecking DB.
After teams win the Super Bowl, every other team in the league looks at them to understand what made them champions. That said, especially this offseason, teams will study Seattle’s tape to copy what Mike Macdonald did.
And what they will find are versatile DBs like Witherspoon, Nick Emmanwori, and, going back to Macdonald’s Baltimore days, Kyle Hamilton. What all of these elite players have in common is their speed, versatility, and IQ needed to read complex offenses. Downs possesses all of these skills at a level far beyond college.
Caleb Downs’ Unlimited Ability
Downs can play linebacker because he has the movement and tackling skills. He zips around the field, picking people off. He’s an amazing tackler, breaks passes up, can cover anyone on the field in any scheme, and he does it all without making mistakes.
Getting someone that versatile is how you bottle up and emulate winning defenses. For any team picking in the top 10, their needs go beyond a single position. But Downs transcends a single position.
In this particular draft class, there isn’t a single flawless player. But Downs is the closest thing to it
It can’t be overemphasized just how special Downs has proven to be as a player and a playmaker. In his college career, Downs was the best tackler in the country. But he can also stop the run, defend anywhere on the field, and knows what plays are being run before anyone else.
If it comes down to sheer skill and individual impact, Caleb Downs is the runaway best player in the 2026 NFL draft, and it’s up to every team not to let such a generational prospect slip past them.
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