For much of the season, the Buffalo Bills have been missing production from their pass catchers outside of Khalil Shakir.
While the late-season addition of Brandin Cooks proved to add a more reliable deep threat to the offense this past Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles, the team is still missing a healthy Dalton Kincaid.
Dalton Kincaid By the Numbers
In 12 games this season, Dalton Kincaid has hauled in 39 catches for 571 yards and five touchdowns. The numbers aren’t anything crazy, but despite missing five games, Kincaid still leads the team in receiving touchdowns, is second in receiving yards and is tied for second in catches.
With Kincaid on the field, the Buffalo Bills are statistically a better football team. Prior to Week 18, they’re 9-2 in games that he plays, averaging 30.2 points per game and 6.1 yards per play, per Carson Breber on Twitter.
However, when he’s inactive, his presence is missed. In games he hasn’t played, the team is 2-3, averages 23 points per game and only 5.4 yards per play.
Staying Healthy
Before injury, Kincaid had played at or around 50% of the Bills’ offensive snaps per game. While this percentage was a drop from his 2024 campaign, it’s not uncommon to see fellow tight end Dawson Knox get more snaps than him. Even this season, rookie tight end Jackson Hawes took over a majority of the run blocking snaps alongside Knox in an effort to keep Kincaid healthy.
Kincaid had become such an important piece to the Bills’ offense that the team was doing everything it could to protect him. His impact in the run game might be minuscule, but with good blockers like Knox and Hawes, Kincaid can focus on staying healthy and making his impact in the passing game.
More Than Numbers
Even when Kincaid isn’t catching the ball, his presence over the middle of the field is enough to open opportunities for other receivers. In games that Kincaid doesn’t play in, opposing teams can zero in on Khalil Shakir, forcing the team to turn to its running game, quick throws, and screen passes.
The Buffalo Bills have one of the top run games in the NFL, but come playoff time, it’s important to keep the offense from becoming one-dimensional. Simply having a receiving threat as talented as Dalton Kincaid on the field puts the team in a better position to succeed.
The Verdict
The Buffalo Bills need Dalton Kincaid to be healthy if they want to continue their recent playoff success and make a run at the Super Bowl. Without top AFC quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson making the playoffs this season, the team needs to capitalize on this opportunity.
Things haven’t gone as smoothly this season as the Bills had hoped, but all they need is to make the playoffs. With a healthy Dalton Kincaid, a top run game, and the reigning MVP at quarterback, they’ll have as good a chance as anyone.
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