Four downs are all you get to go ten yards. Realistically, teams try it three times. Fourth down is for punting or field goals. The NFL’s average fourth-down conversions per game are 0.75 out of 1.3 attempts.
Everyone sees a 4th & 1 and thinks, “Oh, should he go for it?” When the Philadelphia Eagles have it there, defenses prepare to face a Tush Push. Dan Campbell, however, does not shy away from 4th downs. This season, the Lions have attempted 22 4th down conversions. That is 27% of all 4th downs. The other 73% of the time, they punt it (39x) or score a field goal (21x).
Sometimes, this costs games. Other times, it wins it. But what makes Campbell so unique with his decisions?
Campbell is aggressive and risky. Because it’s popular, let’s discuss the 4th & inches against the Packers. The Lions had the ball with 43 seconds left in a tie game on the Packers’ 21-yard line. They had just attempted a 3rd down and went nowhere. Dan Campbell has two options:
- Send out Jake Bates for a 38-yard field goal. The Lions will have roughly 40 seconds to stop the Packers from scoring, whether or not it’s good.
- Leave the offense out to convert 4th down. If they make it one yard, they keep the ball and can drain the clock. At 0:02, send Bates to do his thing as time expires.
Both of these options, when failing, give the Packers the ball, and time is left on the clock in a tie game. The difference is that if they kick a field goal right away, the Packers will still have the ball with the chance to score.
The Lions’ strategy has been consistent throughout the season. They control the ball, averaging 32:21 minutes of possession. While their defense is strong, their offense is stronger and healthier. Campbell is aggressive because he knows it will work. He has confidence in the team, which has averaged 4.6 yards per rush attempt and 8.5 yards per pass attempt. They also have a 72% completion rating.
Dan Campbell puts trust in his team. He takes a higher calculation than one might when playing Madden or RetroBowl when deciding to go for it on 4th down. He has to take into consideration:
- His team’s abilities
- Position of the ball
- Time on the clock
- Future circumstances
- What happens if you fail
- What happens if you succeed
- What does the defense expect
And he is probably thinking about a few other factors simultaneously. If one of those factors is much stronger than the usual balance required for the ultimate “go for it” call, the chances of a conversion attempt are higher. In the circumstance of the Lions, they have an added bonus. Their skill, talent, strength, and grit hold up the offense’s capabilities.
Is Dan Campbell a genius? Probably. He has been consistent with his team, strategy, and game. A creative and knowledgeable staff and leadership support him. They help him, and he uses a sweet combination of staff and players to create an explosive offense that has proven successful more often than not in the last two seasons.
Is Dan Campbell an idiot? He could be, but it takes a little bit of idiot in all of us to make gutsy calls like he does.
Is Dan Campbell just plain lucky? Absolutely not. He has used his resources to build a powerhouse team and organization. Their success is built on something a bit better than luck.
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