With the roster largely set at this point, it’s the time of the year where Wolves fans get a little over-eager about the season’s expectations.
So why should this year be any different? Ricky Rubio’s back, the front office effectively swapped Andrew Wiggins for D’Angelo Russell and selected Anthony Edwards with the draft’s top pick. Not to mention replacing Treveon Graham and Noah Vonleh’s minutes with Malik Beasley and Juancho Hernangomez.
All of this is to say: why aren’t more people excited about the Wolves?
Why not to get all that excited
For starters, the Timberwolves haven’t necessarily been an example franchise. Their last winning roster since KG resulted in an implosion after just one year, thanks to Jimmy Butler. Culminated by a perennial lack of success, undesirable market location, and nearly annual roster/front-office turnover, they have an uphill battle to getting recognition in times it might be deserving.
They have a star in Karl-Anthony Towns that has yet to prove he can lead a team to success as its face. They have a young and unproven head coach that also has validating to do this season. No one has shown they can consistently play defense (except Josh Okogie, but he cancels that out by shooting 27% from three last year). To some degree, their roster consists of unproven, unsuccessful, non-defenders. What’s to be optimistic about that?
The Disconnect
National Attention
ESPN annually gives their top 100 players, rating D’Angelo Russell 69th this year. Ten spots ahead of him? Tyler Herro.
Herro is a great player, one that Heat fans are rightfully excited about. But projected ten spots ahead of Russell? Herro was a rookie last year but averaged four fewer assists, ten fewer points, and as many rebounds per game. How many players slotted ahead of Russell are prior All-Stars like he is? Who has Russell really played with other than farewell tour Kobe and three games of Steph Curry? And now that he has legitimate complementary players around him, they dropped him 43 spots.
KAT was also 23rd in their rankings.
It was only a few years ago that GMs rated him as the top player they’d want to build around. Now he has the reputation of someone that puts up empty numbers on a bad team.
Fans on a national level see his team’s poor record and high stat totals and assume he is running his point totals up on defenses that aren’t taking his offensive possessions seriously due to the score at that given time. Local fans buy into KAT as the face of the franchise as they see his impact on a game-to-game basis.
They watch the games, national fans do not. But can you blame them?
The Timberwolves have just one nationally televised game in the first half of the season. The number one pick will only have one appearance on the national stage in the first half of the year. The Wolves are an unsuccessful franchise in a small market, so it’s no surprise they have significantly fewer national TV games. But general NBA fans won’t even really have the opportunity to change their misconceptions about KAT and the rest of the Wolves unless they are winning.
Reasons for Optimism (Before the Season Started)
1.) The players actually fit
Last year’s roster was entirely overhauled with the exceptions of KAT, Okogie and Jarrett Culver. Of the nine ex-Wolves players that started last year on the opening day roster, I’d argue all but one were poor fits. The exception being Robert Covington, whose age and injury concerns as they played out a lost season meant he was better off traded. Now the Timberwolves will deploy a rotation of mostly above-average shooters to give space around KAT. Not only that, D-Lo is a high-volume scorer and playmaker as an on- and off-ball threat.
2.) They finally have legitimate depth
How many players or their iterations on the current roster would have gotten rotation minutes last year? 13? There will be a battle for minutes, particularly in the backcourt and on the wing. Having added depth will drive positional competition, but it will also support a coronavirus or injury-ridden roster.
3.) No incentive to lose
The Timberwolves traded away this coming year’s first-round pick, top-three protected to the Warriors in the Russell-Wiggins swap. Often times, the allure of a top draft prospect to a struggling team is enough to incentivize them to maximize their opportunity to pursue that. With the Timberwolves not having that appeal to pursue, a losing stint won’t mean rolling over and embracing the tank.
4.) Outside factors
With the impending sale of the team, the time to win as a means of keeping the team in Minnesota is now. A losing season without the consolation of a high draft pick could mean turmoil for Towns and other parts of the roster. Gersson Rosas and Ryan Saunders both have to prove themselves, as a new owner could want to change things if unsuccessful.
5.) What choice do we have?
Wolves fans have spent many years in despair, fully aware of the likelihood the season will result in shambles. But every year, right as the season is about to roll around, optimism comes knocking.
Because why not? A few major, minor issues from the prior season get addressed. The players have a full offseason to work through where their games had fallen short. There is every reason to believe the team will prove to be moving in the direction they intend to. We will finally get real Russell and KAT minutes. There are legitimately good shooters on the roster. Rubio’s back and we have the top overall pick from this year’s draft on our team. The clock on Towns, pressure on Rosas and Saunders, absence of a 2021 draft pick, among other things are just more reasons why to buy in on the Wolves this year.
The Preseason Games
The first two games were rough. The Timberwolves hadn’t played together in nine months, and they looked exactly the part.
In the interest of being optimistic, couldn’t this flat start be seen as a wake-up call that happened as soon as it possibly could? The preseason should be taken for what it is, but maybe concerns are more directly addressed this way. They have plenty of organizing and accomplishing to do. Their third game against the Mavs went much more fluid. A slight, preseason overtime win is a win nonetheless. There was more continuity and reason to have confidence heading into their opener.
Sure, some things will need to fall into place, but if they do, isn’t there a reason for optimism this season?
The Season’s Start
Win v. The Pistons
The Timberwolves opened the season with wins against the Pistons and the Jazz. The preseason’s rust seemed to carry into the season opener, the Wolves trailing for most of the game. The offense looked clunky and inconsistent. They battled to stay within reach long enough to come away with a win after a final sequence of stops and scores. Often times a win comes most productive when it’s ugly. They could point to areas of improvement with more urgency but left the first game 1-0.
Win v. The Jazz
The Utah Jazz are more than likely a solid playoff team. They are a well-coached, well-rounded roster that is gunning to take the next step forward into contention. They have a solid foundation with Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell. Their stability and approach are so much of what the Timberwolves aren’t: a franchise with continuity.
For a Timberwolves team heading into their second game playing together, any moral victory would have been sufficient. The roles of one franchise having stability and the other looking to find it played out contrary to that expectation on the court. The Wolves were fluid in buying into pace on offense and solidity on the defensive end.
The Jazz were propped up by Jordan Clarkson’s strong first-half performance, keeping them in the mix enough to make a second-half run. The Wolves hung onto a win but lost Karl-Anthony Towns for what will be at least a week. There was relief that his wrist injury wasn’t more severe, especially considering it was the same wrist he recovered from surgery on this offseason.
Loss v. The Lakers
The Timberwolves squared off against an Anthony Davis-less Lakers the following night and got blown out. A hot start from Kyle Kuzma added to the already daunting task of hanging with the reigning champions on the back-end of a back-to-back. The news earlier that day of KAT’s injury update and quick adversity is tough for a young team to weather. Okogie also injured his hamstring (not a cramp) and added to the Wolves’ dreary night.
Loss V. The Clippers
The Clippers were without Kawhi Leonard and were coming off of a 50-point loss. Another blowout loss for the Wolves, despite starting strong and showcasing clear synergy and focus. They trailed by four after the first quarter, but they showed glimpses of momentum that could’ve kept them in the game. Instead, the Clippers caught the momentum and it only grew. It was a repeat of the prior run that the Lakers had against the Wolves. The Clippers would put together quality possessions and capitalize on defensive inabilities. As their successful possessions seemed to pile up, the Timberwolves would counter with a quick miss to compound Clipper momentum.
What Happened to Optimism?
The Wolves are 2-2, beat a great Jazz team, and lost to likely the two best teams in the West. They are four games into the year, Anthony Edwards looks better than advertised, and the games where everyone was healthy showed slight competence. KAT and Okogie will be back in no time.
The Wolves have the Wizards on Friday to get back on track.
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