The 2025 NBA Draft Lottery may have been the most controversial one ever.
The basketball world erupted when Mark Tatum turned over that final card to reveal the Mavericks’ pick.
To put it simply, it was the biggest bailout in NBA history. One of the most ridiculed moves in moving on from Luka Doncic led to Dallas having a tumultuous year-end. Injuries ruined the Mavs’ playoff hopes while Los Angeles was one of the top teams in the West. Then, not too long after the Lakers were put out of the first round, the Mavericks won the draft lottery.
An ironic, yet poetic outcome wasn’t just shocking. It was laughable. So funny, even LeBron James couldn’t help but laugh.
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“Rigged”
The most said word across the Internet after the lottery.
Not only did the Mavericks miraculously get another superstar, but they also got one of the best defensive prospects over the last couple of years. Nico Harrison still stands by his ideology of “defense wins championships.” Many declared Cooper Flagg Nico’s ideal superstar— a defensive-savvy forward who can do it all offensively. All of it just seems too good to be true for Dallas.
It’s more than just the first overall pick. The top three picks all went to the most marketable franchises. The Spurs have a unicorn in Victor Wembanyama. The 76ers have a former MVP in Joel Embiid.
All three teams are playoff rosters when healthy.
But the rich get richer in this year’s draft. Wemby will get another playmaker after having the Rookie of the Year join him in 2024. The Process never seems to end in Philadelphia as they look to add another skilled wing. Dallas may have one of the best defensive duos in the NBA in Flagg and Anthony Davis, alongside a captivating guard in Kyrie Irving.
The teams that needed a fresh start no longer have the best odds at getting one. The unprecedented jumps in this year’s lottery meant there were some historical falls.
The Most Unlikely Lottery Ever
2025 saw all three teams with the best odds fall out of the top three. This was the first time since 2007 that this has happened. But even in 2007, the jumps weren’t as drastic as this year’s lottery.
The Trail Blazers won the first overall pick with a 5.3% chance of doing so. The Thunder jumped from the fifth spot to the second. The Hawks moved from four to three. Those are all unlikely jumps, but these were still some of the worst teams in the NBA. Fast forward to 2025, and those numbers seem like chump change.
The 76ers had the lowest differential, with them moving up just two spots to land the third overall pick. The Spurs jumped from eight to two. Dallas jumped from 11 to one. This was the fourth-largest jump in NBA history. It was the first time since 2019 that two teams had moved up to the top despite having single-digit odds to win it all.
The numbers are all over the place. The Mavericks are the first team to make a Finals appearance the year before winning the lottery. San Antonio also has the longest streak of top-four picks earned in NBA history, with three straight selections.
All of the pain felt by Wizards, Hornets and Jazz fans is fair. They committed to their future by tanking, and they were practically punished. Even though the dialogue on the ethics of tanking is against it, is it a fair compromise for the teams the least in need to land the top players?
A History of Controversy
The most controversial lottery to date was the very first. Patrick Ewing to the Knicks in 1985 is still discussed as one of the biggest conspiracies in sports history.
The theory goes that the Knicks’ card was either frozen or folded. Therefore, David Stern would know which cards to pick leading up to the first overall pick. The video of the drawing has been analyzed for decades. People have gone as far as to listen to how Stern was breathing before selecting the card. This theory is fueled by the same drama that the Mavericks’ pick has generated.
The Knicks were the most marketable landing spot available for Ewing. He was hyped for years as a top prospect, but quickly developed into a generational talent. Landing him meant revitalization. The Knicks are in the heart of New York and continue to be one of the NBA’s most valuable franchises because of it. The sentiment of the theory makes sense, but why not rig every single lottery after?
There’s a plethora of questions that stem from this conversation, either supporting or going against the theory. It’s a dialogue that even NBA executives continue to acknowledge. And who better to bring this theory back to the spotlight than Mavericks’ CEO Rick Welts?
Full Circle
After the Lottery, Welts spoke about the outcome and its resemblance to the Knicks in ’85. “I’ve been doing conspiracy theory stories ever since. This is very surreal, personally,” Rick Welts said. For an executive of another team to say this is one thing. But the owner of the team that won the 2025 lottery and was involved with the 1985 lottery is stating that even he’s stunned.
Either the concept of a rigged lottery is real, or NBA executives are just farming engagement. One would think the NBA would try its best to stay away from this conspiracy, but they’re doing everything but that. For Welts to bring it up on his own tells us that this narrative is one that the NBA doesn’t care to continue.
It’s not because it’s true or false. It’s because of this article, the tweets we saw that night, and the continuous coverage this controversy gets. The NBA needs every bit of publicity it can get. Even LeBron, who earlier laughed at the pick, brought up this controversy about when Cleveland landed the rights to draft him.
As much as this sucks for smaller market teams, the lottery did a better job at getting people excited about this year’s draft class than anyone could’ve imagined.
The lottery remains one of the NBA’s biggest events, and its controversy is going nowhere. It’s one of the only things they’ve got that separates them from the rest. As long as it generates engagement, expect history to keep repeating itself.
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