For years, the debate on what exactly constitutes being a sports league MVP has raged on. Many argue the statistics should tell the whole story, while others believe the art of winning paints the best picture. Some argue the winner should reflect the award’s name.
Through the first four weeks of the NFL season, Josh Allen is the poster boy of the first narrative. Brock Purdy and his undefeated 49ers lead the charge in the second narrative.
Then there’s the third narrative, and its leader plays his ball in Dallas. He leads the most explosive offense in football, and holds several franchise records with many more in his sights.
His name is Dak Prescott.
The City Of Dallas On His Shoulders
Below is a chart. The X-axis shows every team’s offensive EPA, while the Y-axis is every team’s defensive EPA:
The Cowboys are in a world of their own in the lower right quadrant. Their offensive EPA is as far to the right as any team, but their defensive EPA is as far down as any team. Simply put, Dallas cannot play defense.
Their pass EPA is dead last, sitting at 0.412. In fact, Dallas is the only team whose pass EPA sits above 0.3. Their run defense is better, but “better” for the Cowboys defense means being below average in rush EPA (20th) instead of 32nd. They don’t take the ball away, either, as Dallas has only forced two turnovers all year.
At least they are disciplined, right?
Nope. Dallas’s defense has committed 37 penalties, fifth-most in football. They’re costly, too, as their 320 penalty yards allowed are only second to the 0-4 Los Angeles Chargers.
So how does a team with the league’s worst pass defense, just two forced turnovers, and the fifth-most penalties in football end up at .500?
Their offense. Remember, the Cowboys are the furthest to the right on that chart. That means they possess the best offensive EPA/play in the NFL. Their dropback EPA specifically sits at 0.319, which is third-best in the league.
And of course, a large portion of that is down to Prescott’s elite play.
Putting just about any quarterback in Prescott’s situation would have Dallas at 0-4. In fact, the teams even remotely close to the Cowboys on that chart defensively (Commanders, Titans, and Jets) have a combined record of 2-10.
There is simply no one more valuable than Dak Prescott is to the Dallas Cowboys.
Prescott’s Raw Numbers Match the Advanced Metrics
Prescott’s MVP case starts with value, but the raw stats back him up too.
Prescott currently has 1,065 yards, eight touchdowns, and one interception to his name. Only Jared Goff and Brock Purdy can flex similar lines so far.
Prescott achieves this with impressive efficiency—his completion percentage is a remarkable 70%, ranking fourth in the league. His success rate (52%) is fourth in football, and he’s contributed 35.39 expected points, the third-highest among quarterbacks.
His passer rating sits at 105, which is good for seventh in the league. In the QBR department, he is second-best (83.4) to Brock Purdy’s 89.4.
Prescott combines volume with efficiency, and from the box score to the spreadsheets, all statistics love his play. While it’s not the brunt of his MVP case yet, he certainly isn’t lacking in the statistical department, with plenty of season left to build on.
No Quarterback in Football Is More Valuable to His Team
Dak Prescott has some of the best counting stats in football. His advanced analytics might be even better than that.
He heads the most explosive offense in football, while racing against his own defense to the 30+ point mark. Quarterbacks around the league in similar—yet far better—defensive situations are doing anywhere from marginally worse to categorically worse than Prescott is.
Prescott has to be essentially perfect for his football team to stay in games, let alone win them. So far, he’s been essentially perfect.
Perhaps the MVP has become too narrative-based. But if the conversation is about “value,” there is no question on who brings the most.
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