The Oklahoma City Thunder enter the upcoming year with the same top players, but significant turnover across the rest of the roster.
Saving money remained a focal point of the OKC offseason. Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, and Branden Carlson are all gone. The Thunder are relying on a new group of talent to fill those roles and complement Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren.
OKC remains a title contender, especially with SGA playing like an MVP. But after back-to-back 60-win seasons, there are a lot more questions with the rest of the roster after him that this regular season will answer.
Thunder’s Biggest Offseason Loss: Luguentz Dort
The Thunder roster boasts plenty of defenders. None played quite like Luguentz Dort.
OKC traded Dort to the Atlanta Hawks for three second-round picks. Essentially, the trade served as a salary dump for the Thunder. Dort’s contract sits at over $17 million this season. Moving his salary helped the Thunder save millions off their salary sheet.
Losing Dort might benefit OKC long term, but it definitely impacts the short term, too.
Dort finished fourth in Defensive Player of the Year voting in 2024-25, the same year OKC won the NBA championship. At 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds, he certainly played like the Thunder’s best defender, using strength to battle bigger stars and quickness to handle switches and attack on the perimeter.
Offensively, Dort dropped off last year. He shot under 35% from three and below 39% overall. He hadn’t done that since 2022-23. That forced the Thunder to move him out of the starting lineup against San Antonio in the playoffs. But Dort’s effectiveness would have stood out more had OKC faced Jokić or Dončić in the playoffs.
Thunder’s Biggest Offseason Addition: Bennett Stirtz
The Oklahoma City Thunder added no players in free agency, but they did make two top-20 picks. One of them could be good now and in the franchise’s future.
Oklahoma City traded up with the Memphis Grizzlies and selected Iowa guard Bennett Stirtz with the No. 16 overall pick. Stirtz enters the league after a first-team All-Big Ten year, guiding the Hawkeyes to the Elite Eight.
Stirtz is a pure on-ball scorer and playmaker. He handled a high usage rate during his college career. He also averaged over 38 minutes per game in his last two collegiate seasons, leading all Division I players both years.
In the short term, he could eat up minutes in the regular season and provide a floor for OKC’s bench offense.
He could also be a cheap replacement down the road for Ajay Mitchell, another draft win for OKC who will soon be on the hook for a new contract.
Thunder’s Best-Case Scenario Outcome
Without a doubt, it’s the Oklahoma City Thunder winning their second title in three years.
During the season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to perform at an MVP level. Jalen Williams stays healthy and plays like one of the league’s best wings. Chet Holmgren is an All-NBA or borderline All-NBA center.
Outside the Thunder’s Big Three, OKC’s rookies and younger talent replace what was lost this offseason. Cason Wallace takes on a larger role and thrives. Some combination of Stirtz, Aday Mara, Thomas Sorber, and Nikola Topić become important pieces.
All that gets the Thunder back to over 60 wins, a top seed in the Western Conference, and eventually, the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
A cherry on top: Oklahoma City gets revenge on Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs in the playoffs.
Thunder’s Worst-Case Scenario Outcome
The Oklahoma City Thunder not only fail to win a championship, but regression hits across the board.
SGA is forced to shoulder too much of the load, then misses time after being an iron man the last four years. Williams and Holmgren contribute, but not at an All-NBA level.
Shifting to the supporting cast, Wallace doesn’t take the next step many fans expect. None of the Thunder’s young talent is ready for the postseason. OKC ends up lacking the depth it once had.
That shows in the regular season. OKC wins between 50-55 games, finishes around a three-to-four seed, and exits early in the playoffs.
Thunder’s Biggest Question Heading Into 2026-27 Season
Can Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren help out Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the playoffs?
OKC’s entire offseason centered on shedding salary to navigate the huge contracts SGA, Williams, and Holmgren are due. The Thunder are making it clear: this is our big three.
SGA continues to play like the franchise cornerstone. Williams and Holmgren now have to do the same.
Williams did just that two years ago. OKC desperately missed him healthy in the most recent playoffs. Holmgren did play in the 2026 postseason, but his performance fell well short of his All-NBA third-team regular-season selection.
The Thunder’s title equity can’t rely only on SGA or a few bench players rising to the occasion. Williams and Holmgren must perform like the second- and third-best players on a championship-caliber team.
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