The AFC is set up to be an absolute blood bath in 2024.
The previous six MVP winners reside in the conference, as well as the previous two Super Bowl trophies. With every team looking up at the Kansas City Chiefs, it will take a full season of dedication and execution to dethrone the champs. The long road to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans starts with the first snap.
So to help you figure out who is starting the season off on the right foot, here’s one thing to pay attention to for every team in the AFC in Week 1:
(The statistics provided can be found in Warren Sharp’s 2024 NFL preview)
AFC East
Bills
The Bills WR room is on the fringe of garbage, but their TE room is one of the best in the league. They just paid Dawson Knox, and Dalton Kincaid is looking for a Year 2 bump.
In the first five weeks of last season, before injuries occurred, the Bills were using 2+ TE sets at the second-highest rate in the league, and their passing game benefited tremendously from it (+0.43 EPA/att v.s. -0.01EPA/att through Week 10 (Sharp, 125). Look for how much the Bills send out their two franchise tight ends together to see if they’re aware of what works best for them, or if they instead try to force it to their lackluster receivers.
Dolphins
Tua’s average time to throw was 2.21 seconds last season (second fastest in the league), down from 2.49 in 2022 (Sharp, 369). The Dolphins purposefully did this to protect him from pressure for health reasons, but also because he’s terrible at handling it.
If Tua is still getting rid of the ball at lightning speeds, then we’ll likely see a repeat of last year’s Dolphins offense. If Tua is holding on to the ball a little bit longer, however, maybe they’re trusting him and their O-Line to let routes develop a little bit more in an attempt to evolve.
Either that, or they just forgot that that’s what he needs to do.
Jets
Aaron Rodgers’ return and ability to avoid tearing an Achilles is what most people will be focusing on, but Breece Hall is another key piece of the offense that needs to get going on the right foot.
Hall is a massive big-play threat, but 24.7% of his carries went for zero or negative yards last season (45th out of 49 RBs (Sharp, 442). If Breece is churning out at least two or three yards on every rush, he’ll be as much of a monster as advertised.
Patriots
There’s so much turnover and so many question marks with this team that it’s hard to pick one thing to look at. It’s new Offensive Coordinator Alex Van Pelt’s job to sort through this team’s offensive mess and create an identity.
In the offseason, Van Pelt stated that he is excited to leverage Drake Maye’s capability to make NFL-style middle-of-the-field throws and utilize his prowess in play-action situations. While it may be Jacoby Brissett to start off the year, look for how often Van Pelt has his QBs use play-action and if he decides to be aggressive on early downs, or conservative. The former will be a good sign.
AFC North
Bengals
The Bengals just traded the third most important player on their roster. Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are still there, but DJ Reader is now a Detroit Lion. Over the past two seasons, the Bengals were the No. 1 run defense in the league with Reader on the field, but fall to last in yards per carry allowed when Reader was off the field (Sharp, 171).
The Bengals open up 2024 with what should be a freebie against the Patriots. If Rhamondre Stevenson behind a terrible New England O-Line goes for any sort of good day on the ground (say 80+ yards), be very worried for this Bengals run defense moving forward.
Browns
Even though they just got Jerry Jeudy, the Browns should stray from three WR sets and instead be using two TEs. Since Kevin Stefanski arrived in 2020, the Browns have a +0.23 better EPA/att when passing out of 12 personnel compared to 11, and that difference only gets bigger (+0.30) when looking at just Deshaun Watson’s passes (Sharp, 185).
Despite this, Stefanski has been using 11 personnel at a higher rate each consecutive season. If the Browns use two TE sets more than 50% of the time in Week 1, then they may have learned something this offseason.
Ravens
The Week 1 rematch against the Chiefs will all be about the run game for the Ravens. They strayed from it in the AFC Championship, and it cost them a Super Bowl berth.
With Derrick Henry taking over the back field, there’s little doubt that the Chiefs, like most teams, will be stacking the box against the perennial powerhouse. Henry has lost some explosiveness, but he doesn’t need to have it. So long as King Henry can churn out positive runs consistently, that will open up the ability for Lamar Jackson to be explosive on his behalf.
Steelers
Whether it’s Russell Wilson or Justin Fields at the helm, it doesn’t really matter. The key here is for both of them to get rid of the ball quickly.
Russ and Justin were the two worst QBs in the league in terms of bailing themselves out with checkdowns. No other QBs averaged a longer time to throw on passes at or behind the line of scrimmage (Sharp, 216). Their habits of holding on to the ball also led to plenty of terrible, drive-killing sacks. It’ll be on Arthur Smith and Mike Tomlin to figure out how to get the ball out of their hands.
AFC South
Colts
The Colts got off to great starts last year, and it was the key to them winning games. Indianapolis was 8-0 when leading at halftime and 1-7 when trailing. When Shane Steichen establishes and executes a game plan, it translates to wins. Just look at the Eagles’ first-half offense in 2022 for more proof.
If the Colts can come out and take a lead in the first half against their division rival Texans in Week 1, it’ll confirm Steichen has stayed in the lab this offseason.
Jaguars
The Jaguars must not have the latest gloves in their clubhouse because they can’t seem to grab the ball. Last year, Trevor Lawrence lost more EPA on incompletions due to receiver error (Sharp, 295). But Lawrence isn’t in the clear either. His 21 fumbles the past three seasons is seven more than any other player in that span.
The Jaguars need to catch and hold on to the ball in Week 1 against the Dolphins, or else they’ll get torched. Any drops or fumbles will be considered an L.
Texans
The Texans had the best run defense in the league last year, but they lost key pieces to that in Sheldon Rankins and Maliek Collins. The new pieces on the line will face about as tough of a test as it comes in the Colts rushing attack Week 1. If the Texans can hold them under 100 rushing yards, that will be a massive win for this reshaped D-Line.
Titans
The Titans have been incredibly predictable on offense for a while. They put Will Levis in obvious passing situations on long third downs which led to unsuccessful offense overall. New Head Coach Brian Callahan comes from Cincinnati where they had the third-highest rate of early down passing in the league last year (Sharp, 537).
If Levis is slinging the ball early, and deep for that matter like he was best at last year, that means Callahan trusts him. If not, then the training wheels are still on.
AFC West
Broncos
The Broncos had the worst rushing defense in recent history through the first five weeks of last season (remember when the Dolphins hung 70 on them). All they need to focus on on the defensive side of the ball is to stop the Seahawks from gashing them for over five yards a carry. Anything under four would be a great start to the season.
Chargers
There’s so many things to look for with the Chargers it’s hard to pick just one. Jim Harbaugh’s teams start and end with success in the trenches though. If the Chargers can win the sack battle against a team with as good of edge rushers as the Raiders, that would be promising on either or both sides of the ball.
Chiefs
Will Patrick Mahomes be ready to air the ball out deep in Week 1? The Chiefs were dead last in air yards/attempt on early downs last year (Sharp, 307). Although we won’t see Hollywood Brown in Week 1, it looks like Rashee Rice will be there alongside Xavier Worthy. If Mahomes is slinging it deep in situations where he doesn’t need to, especially against a team like the Ravens, it means the Chiefs are not messing around out the gate.
Raiders
When Antonio Pierce took over this team in Week 9 the Raiders had one strategy in mind to win games: minimize risk and get takeaways. Nearly 50% of their early down (1st or 2nd down) plays were runs (9th highest rate) (Sharp, 322). 56% of their series led to third downs, which was the 2nd highest rate in the league.
If the Raiders let Gardner Minshew throw on first and second downs, it will tell a lot about how they feel about their new QB. If they continue to run the ball early and predictably, it will be a long season for Vegas on offense.
References:
Sharp, W. & Sharp Football Analysis. (2024). 2024 Football Preview [E-book]
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