The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills are two of the top contenders in the AFC this season, and their two regular-season matchups have delivered.
The Patriots are 12-3 and have found their rhythm thanks to new head coach Mike Vrabel and MVP-caliber quarterback Drake Maye. Just behind them in the AFC East standings at 11-4, Buffalo’s Josh Allen could make his own case for MVP, as he and running back James Cook III have been fueling the Bills’ offense this season.
The two teams split their matchups this season, with the Patriots winning 23-20 in Buffalo in Week 5 and the Bills winning 35-31 in New England in Week 15.
Buffalo isn’t able to walk over the Patriots as they have in the last five years, so what does that mean for a potential playoff matchup?
Heading into Week 17, the Patriots hold the No. 2 seed in the AFC (only behind the Broncos), and the Bills sit with the No. 6 seed. If the Patriots fail to get the No. 1 seed and the bye that comes with it, they will likely face the Houston Texans in the first round. Houston’s exceptional defense may prove challenging for a Patriots offense that can be inconsistent at times, but ultimately, they might be an easier matchup than Buffalo.
Going into these playoffs, Allen will likely be the best at his position among both conferences, with Maye and MVP-favorite Matthew Stafford being his only competition. Due to that, Buffalo’s chances of running the table in the playoffs exceed even more, as having an elite QB is often all you need.
Let’s take a look at how the two juggernauts’ previous bouts went.
Week 5: Patriots Stun Bills
Despite Allen’s heroics, it was Maye and the Patriots’ run game that helped New England eke out a win in Week 5. Early-season RB trio Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson, and Antonio Gibson each got six or more carries in this game, with the former rushing for the team’s only two touchdowns of the night.
While the run game paved the way for New England, it would be hard not to mention Stefon Diggs when talking about this win. The former Bill has been New England’s best receiver this season, with nearly 869 yards on 76 catches. Though the 32-year-old has had a questionable reputation in the past, he has really stepped up as a leader this year in the locker room. In this game, Diggs had 10 receptions for 146 yards, including a 32-yard catch. He was integral to the Patriots’ ability to extend drives and put points on the board.
Nine of those points came from rookie kicker Andres Borregales, who went perfect on the night, including a 52-yarder to win the game.
As for Buffalo, Allen led the way with 300 total yards and two touchdowns, with tight end Dalton Kincaid eclipsing 100 yards on the night. This was a very back-and-forth game, and it ultimately came down to the legs of the kickers, as Borregales outdid veteran Matt Prater for a Patriots win.
Week 15: Bills Mount Massive Comeback
While the outcome was different in their second matchup, one thing wasn’t: Allen. Though the Patriots jumped out to a 21-0 lead, it was all Buffalo in the second half. A Patriots defense that has been stout all season could not stop Allen and Cook III, as the former threw three touchdowns and the latter ran for two.
This game featured something Buffalo hadn’t seen much of yet, that being Henderson. The 23-year-old carried the ball 14 times for 148 yards and two touchdowns. He will likely be the biggest x-factor for New England if the two face each other in the playoffs, as his explosiveness is unlike anyone on the field and unlike many others in the league.
Ultimately, Buffalo’s 28-second-half points proved enough to beat the Patriots, who could only muster seven. Given how narrow the margins were in both meetings, NFL betting odds show just how evenly matched a potential Patriots-Bills playoff clash could be.
In a potential playoff matchup, one could argue that if Buffalo keeps New England in check in the first half, they could dominate, but the same applies to the Patriots in the second half. If their defense can perform well for four quarters instead of two, their chances of winning a potential playoff game are there.
If these two juggernauts face each other in the playoffs, the outcome will likely hinge on one of two things. Either both MVP-level quarterbacks will shine and lead their teams in a high-scoring game, or both defenses will stand strong and play tough football—something Buffalo has struggled with all season, and something New England has recently grappled with.
Regardless, both teams are highly talented, featuring strong rushing attacks and top-tier quarterbacks, and the outcome might depend on which one gets the ball last.
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