The 2025 NFL season is past its halfway point, and the quarterback picture for 2026 is already taking shape. Teams are quietly (or not so quietly) planning their next moves. Some veteran starters have lost the trust of their franchises, while younger players haven’t shown enough to lock down the job. With a strong quarterback class expected in the 2026 draft, several teams are ready to hit the reset button.
Let’s look at seven quarterbacks who appear to be on their last legs as starters in their current cities. For those who enjoy following the league’s ups and downs even more closely, you can grab $200 no deposit bonus + 200 real money free spins to add a little extra excitement while reading the breakdown.
Kyler Murray — Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray started 2025 as Arizona’s clear franchise quarterback. Five weeks later, everything changed. The Cardinals’ running game fell apart, and Murray struggled to carry the passing attack. He’s produced his fourth-worst season by yards per attempt (6.0) and worst career sack rate (9%). When he broke his foot in Week 5, backup Jacoby Brissett took over and the offense improved instantly.
The front office’s actions shouted louder than statistics. Head coach Jonathan Gannon first said Murray would start after the bye week, then canceled his press conference. Brissett kept the job, beat Dallas, and only then did the team place Murray on injured reserve – four weeks after the injury happened. The timing allowed Arizona to avoid any public decision about Murray’s future while Brissett played.
Murray is just 28 years old, but he is owed $42.5 million next year, with almost all of it guaranteed. The Cardinals would save $35.3 million against the cap by trading him before June 1. Presumably, Arizona will seek a trade partner this offseason and open with a rookie or veteran bridge quarterback in 2026.
Geno Smith — Las Vegas Raiders
Geno Smith arrived in Las Vegas with real hope. He had posted two solid seasons in Seattle and many thought a new environment could keep him rolling.
Instead, 2025 has been rough. Smith owns one of the league’s worst interception rates, and the offense stalls too often on negative plays.
Injuries to tight end Brock Bowers and the offensive tackles haven’t helped, and new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly’s scheme has underperformed, leading to his firing late Sunday night.
Still, the Raiders inked Smith to bring up the floor, and Vegas still ranks near the bottom in nearly all passing-related categories. At 35 and with his Total QBR declining each year since 2022, it seems like the comeback narrative has run its course.
Smith is owed $26.5 million next season by the Raiders, but only $18.5 million of that is guaranteed. They could keep him as an expensive backup or try to move him (potentially incurring some financial loss) for a late draft pick. Few expect Smith to be the 2026 starter, either way. Kenny Pickett and Aidan O’Connell are waiting in the wings, and the team will almost certainly look at the draft as well.
Justin Fields — New York Jets
The Jets hoped Justin Fields could finally give them stable quarterback play.
It hasn’t worked out.
Fields has produced two of the lowest Total QBR marks in the league and the offense often survives on defense and special teams rather than passing.
New York already has a massive stockpile of draft picks after trading away stars at the deadline. General manager Darren Mougey will prioritize a long-term quarterback solution. Fields is owed $20 million next year, with half already guaranteed. The Jets can simply release him this offseason and save the other $10 million with almost no dead money.
Expect Fields to look for work elsewhere— probably as a bridge starter or high-end backup who brings running ability.
Matthew Stafford — Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford is having one of the best statistical seasons of his career at age 37. He leads the league in touchdown-to-interception ratio (27-to-2) and sits second in adjusted net yards per attempt. The Rams would love to keep him forever.
However, Stafford has flirted with retirement each of the last few offseasons, usually while asking for more guaranteed money.
Next year, he is scheduled to earn $40 million with zero guarantees. If he finishes strong and competes for MVP votes, another round of “Will he stay or go?” talks feels inevitable. Most likely, he returns to Los Angeles for one or two more years, but if he does hang up the cleats, the Rams will enter the 2026 market for a new starter.
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Aaron Rodgers — Pittsburgh Steelers
Aaron Rodgers joined Pittsburgh on a one-year prove-it deal after the Jets moved on. At 41, he has provided slightly below-average starting play for $13.7 million. There is no 2026 money on the books and no dead cap.
The Steelers almost never finish with a losing record, so they probably won’t pick high enough to grab an elite rookie without trading up. Unless a clear upgrade falls into their lap via trade or free agency, another short-term Rodgers contract is very possible — but only if he wants to keep playing. Retirement feels just as likely as a return.
Tua Tagovailoa — Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa is the one quarterback teams can’t easily move. Miami guaranteed him $54 million for 2026. Cutting him would still cost the Dolphins the full $54 million while creating almost $100 million in dead cap spread over two years. That simply won’t happen.
A trade is the only realistic path to a clean break, but few teams will want to pay $55 million for one season of a quarterback with concussion history and declining production. Miami might have to eat $15–20 million to make a deal palatable. If no trade partner appears, Tagovailoa returns as the 2026 starter by default — even though the coaching staff and front office would clearly prefer a different direction.
Tua and the aforementioned Geno Smith lead the league in interceptions (13) after Week 12.
Two Young Starters Who Will Face Serious Competition
The 2024 rookie class features two first-round QBs vying to be the answer.
Injuries limited J.J. McCarthy (Vikings) to four starts in two seasons. While his stats are poor (sub-54% completion, high interception and sack rates), he’s shown mobility and intermediate accuracy. Minnesota needs to bring in a strong veteran backup who can push him — and possibly take the job — in 2026.
Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons) has been solid yet inconsistent in extended action: he protects the ball and avoids sacks, yet leads the league in inaccurate throws and sometimes forces passes into tight windows. Atlanta will move on from Kirk Cousins after this year, but will likely add a veteran or high draft pick to compete with Penix next summer.
Bottom Line
The 2026 quarterback carousel promises to be chaotic, with several teams already using late-round rookies or placeholders. For seven quarterbacks, their time is likely up with six weeks remaining in the 2025 season.
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