The 2026 MLB Season Is Turning Into the Next Home Run Race

Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa saved Major League Baseball in 1998. Four years removed from a canceled World Series over a player’s labor strike, baseball lost the trust of the fans. The league saw massive drops in attendance and fan engagement in the multi-year aftermath.

Then, something clicked in the summer of ‘98. The sport witnessed a renaissance, founded in the same way Babe Ruth saved baseball after the Black Sox Scandal of 1919: by hitting a lot of home runs.

McGwire and Sosa, with biceps questionably the size of a rotund newborn, took off on a home run race. Both sluggers broke Roger Maris’ standing record of 61 home runs in a single season, with McGwire ending on top at 70.

While that still stands as the second-most in a single season all time, there’s a bold asterisk next to the 1998 campaign. As it was later discovered, McGwire and Sosa – on top of a fair amount of other major leaguers – wanted an extra pump of power from illegal performance-enhancing steroids, forever staining baseball’s history books.

On Memorial Day in ‘98, McGwire led the league with 25 home runs. Sosa started slow, only with 11, but other big hitters that ended near the top of the leaderboard like Ken Griffey Jr. or Greg Vaughn, sat with 18 and 16, respectively.

The 2026 home run leaderboard as of Memorial Day looks rather similar. Seven batters have over 15 home runs, with an enticing top three that could turn 2026 into the next home run race. The kicker? These swings are coming from honest, pure baseball fundamentals.

Kyle Schwarber‘s Prime

Something in the Philadelphia air unlocked a higher level of Kyle Schwarber’s game. Through the first seven years of his career, Schwarber averaged 21.9 home runs per season. Since signing with the Phillies in 2022, that’s ridiculously jumped to almost 47, and has continued through 2026.

He’s exploded through May, swinging points shy of a .900 OPS and tacking on 10 of his league-leading 21 homers en route to an impressive .608 SLG in May. He ignited for a week, with nine of those home runs coming across eight games.

Schwarber’s the most productive three-true-outcome player right now in baseball. Although he strikes out well more than the league average, his SLG and OPS both increase when batting with runners on base, hence why he’s leading Philadelphia in RBI.

Schwarber had the third-best odds to hit the most home runs at the beginning of the season, but is now in first and not slowing down. If he can fine-tune leaving the park regularly instead of going on hot and cold streaks, the home run title could return to Philadelphia for the first time since Ryan Howard’s 48 in 2008.

Enter Munetaka Murakami

The next must-watch Japanese superstar has arrived, and he’s playing in the South Side of Chicago. When it was confirmed that the two-time Nippon Professional Baseball MVP was coming overseas, whispers of the next Hideki Matsui ensued. So far, those comparisons have lived up to the hype, for the most part.

It’s confirmed that Murakami does one thing well: hit home runs. So much so that he already has 18, good enough for second in the league. It’s the other four tools that leave him with room to reach the fabled status of Matsui. Through the first couple months of his major league career, Murakami’s been a more emphasized, less versatile three-true-outcome player than Schwarber.

He has an excellent .906 OPS, good for a 152 OPS+, but an underwhelming .235 batting average. Yet, Murakami is within the 97th percentile in all of baseball for average exit velocity, barrel percentage and hard hit percentage. When he connects, he connects, with 47% of his home runs qualified as “no-doubters” by Baseball Savant.

With all of this being said, Murakami is 26-years-old and 52 games into his MLB career. It’d be an unprecedented feat if he hit the most home runs in his debut season, but if this start has any tell into the rest of the year, he has a solidified shot.

Baseball’s Home Run King

No conversation around Major League Baseball and home runs doesn’t include Aaron Judge. The single-season American League home run leader, three-time MVP, five-time Silver Slugger, the accolades go on and on. Since exploding onto the scene in 2017 and immediately leading the AL in homers, he hasn’t taken a breath.

Judge has 17 round-trippers in 2026, good for third place as of Memorial Day. This pace is on-brand, as he’s never gone below 12 or over 18 home runs by May 25 in his career.

Judge doesn’t have a specific time of the year or situation where he excels. He simply stays as consistent as the tides. The three-true-outcome precedent that applies to Schwarber and Murakami doesn’t apply to Judge. When Schwarber launched 56 bombs in 2025, he batted .240. Judge hit 53 while batting .331. He’s MLB’s home run king; he has been for nearly a decade, and will be in the mix by the end of the season.

The New Home Run Race

Schwarber, Murakami and Judge have all been hitting the seams off the ball. If the trio stays persistent, the dynamic and narrative of a modern MLB home run race could live up to the McGwire-Sosa show 28 seasons ago.

A captain in New York City looking to deepen his Hall of Fame status. A rhythmic DH from Philadelphia reinventing his prime. And a 26-year-old stud from Japan keeping pace with the veterans in his rookie debut.

Fans can sit back and enjoy a pursuit with no performance-enhancers or dishonest match-ups in sight. Just pure, clean baseball, all summer long.