The Chicago Bears began their 2025 season poorly, starting 0-2 with losses to division rivals. Then, they went on a four-game winning streak, which was their longest since 2018.
Most recently, in Week 8, the Bears fell on the road to a Lamar Jackson-less Ravens team. Chicago has shown it still has flaws, but also newfound resilience and a refreshed culture under first-year head coach Ben Johnson.
With playoff hopes now in view, the next four weeks will be critical in determining if this team can avoid a skid, build some consistency and become a real NFC contender.
Too Hot — Bears’ Run Game and Defensive Dominance
During their four-game winning streak, the Bears excelled in several key areas, especially in the run game. From Weeks 5–7, both Bears running backs, D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai, ranked in the top 10 in EPA+ per rush, averaging a 45.5% success rate over that time span. In fact, the Bears have logged three of the top seven single-game rushing success rates for a Bears team since 2013. This showcases their improved physicality and offensive line play since the bye week.
Their defense has also stepped up significantly. Back in Week 2, it seemed like the defense might hinder the team after allowing 52 points in a loss to the Detroit Lions.
But from Week 3 to Week 7 they allowed just 19 points per game and led the league in forced turnovers. On late downs, Chicago ranked first in defensive EPA per play at -0.58, almost doubling the next closest team. They’ve played an opportunistic style of football, consistently delivering in crucial moments.
Too Cold — Bears’ Penalties and Passing Woes
While there has been a lot of good for the Bears over the last month, there is still much to improve if they want to reach their full potential. As Swift mentioned after the Bears’ victory over the Saints, “We have yet to play clean football for four quarters offensively, so I can’t wait to see what that looks like.”
This has been a recurring issue for Chicago throughout the season, with several key factors contributing to it.
First, pre-snap penalties continue to hinder the offense. The Bears are among the most penalized teams in the NFL, averaging 9.1 penalties per game, with 26 being pre-snap. These mistakes often set the offense back and hinder promising drives.
Second, the passing game hasn’t connected as well as many expected. While there have been glimpses of brilliance, inconsistency persists.
Bears quarterback Caleb Williams has limited turnovers and pushed the ball downfield effectively, but his accuracy remains an issue; he is second the league in off-target throws percentage and has the largest gap between actual and expected completion percentage.
Williams also needs to be more decisive, making quicker, more efficient reads will significantly enhance this offense’s potential.
Finding “Just Right” — Learning from the Ravens Loss
This season, the Bears have shown patterns similar to the three bears from the fairytale: at times, they have been too cold, with slow starts and high penalties, and at other times too hot, with decisive wins and a powerful run game. The goal is to be “just right”, to execute completely over four quarters, maintain a disciplined offense, and secure wins against strong teams.
Unfortunately, their search for that “just right” performance encountered a setback on Sunday.
The Ravens defeated Chicago 30-16, ending the Bears’ four-game winning streak and dropping their record to 4-3. This loss highlighted both the strengths and weaknesses of the Bears: the strong run game and opportunistic defense, negated by turnovers and inconsistent passing, thus emphasizing the ongoing quest for balance.
As Chicago moves forward, it is crucial that they learn from the Ravens game, address the penalties, and stabilize the passing attack. If the Bears can find their “just right” rhythm, this team has the potential to transform a strong start into a legitimate playoff push.
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