The Buffalo Bills have the league’s top offense, but also one of the worst scoring defenses.
Coming off the bye, the offense isn’t going anywhere. But the real story for the second half might be a defense that’s closer to turning the corner than the numbers suggest.
The H-Back Screen Is Giving Defenses Nightmares
NFL analyst Mina Kimes noted that the league average is at 23 percent first down conversion rate when throwing a pass to a running back. That metric doubles to 47 percent when the Bills get their H-backs involved.
The key here is the Rams’ man coverage. Someone has to follow Ty Johnson on the screen, and that means a linebacker is committed to him. The Bills design a play where center Connor McGovern blocks Johnson’s man, taking the linebacker out of the play and opening up a first down.
Josh Allen’s presnap reads add another layer.
Allen sees the safety showing blitz and has James Cook line up directly in the A gap to block him. Cook makes a cut block to buy Allen the extra second to throw.
This is all about having answers to looks. Johnson gets moved to the A gap to block the lurking safety. They get the protection right, giving Allen time to scan the field before taking off.
The Coverage Is Sound, the Execution Just Needs to Catch Up
Through six games, the Bills are mainly in Cover 3 or Cover 4, either splitting the deep field into thirds or quarters with their secondary.
Buffalo is one of the worst pass defenses in the league — not because they can’t generate pressure, but because of their last line of defense.
But there are positives.
The Bills have the traditional two safeties deep and then on the snap, cornerback Davison Igbinosun (top of the play) bails back to cover deep.
Safety CJ Gardner-Johnson drives on the ball to the hook area so hard that’s actually hard to tell what coverage the Bills are in.
It might be a Cover 2 disguise where Igbinosun is supposed to replace Gardner-Johnson as the second deep defender. That means Gardner-Johnson has to play the hook area in the second level.
It might also be Cover 3, where Gardner-Johnson is supposed to be one of the three deep defenders. But he read the play on the snap and immediately drove on the ball.
Here’s where the Bills play one of their regular coverages:
They are in Cover 4. The cornerbacks have outside leverage with their eyes inside. They are taking the receivers to their safeties.
The Bills show a presnap three deep look.
The defense gets what they want here as the Patriots take a deep shot against quarters coverage. The outside receivers end up running into double coverage on either side of the field. The middle safety Damar Hamlin also aggressively drives down on the in-breaking routes to negate a throw there.
Igbinosun and Cole Bishop execute the quarters look and help force an incomplete pass downfield.
The Bills’ offense will hit bumps, but it’s still one of the most feared units in football. The defense has the scheme and the talent to turn things around.
It just needs time.
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