With the NFL offseason officially beginning, rumors around the league are more widespread than ever, and the Bills are no exception. They face a challenging cap space situation, so they’ll need to be creative in their targeting.
In a Feb. 16 article, ESPN’s Bill Barnwell identified Brian Thomas Jr. as a potential trade target for the Bills. While any trade package at this point is pure speculation, Thomas Jr.’s value is likely at an all-time low following a disappointing season in Jacksonville this year.
The trade rumors about Brian Thomas Jr. aren’t new, as The Athletic’s Diana Russini reported that the Jaguars were considering offers for him during this past season’s trade deadline.
If the rumors about the Jaguars trying to trade Brian Thomas Jr. are true, the Bills should be the first team to reach out to him.
https://twitter.com/BillsRoundtable/status/2024278699055395286
The Good With Brian Thomas Jr.
The Jaguars’ interest in Brian Thomas Jr. is probably because of the team’s depth at wide receiver. However, it still seems too soon to give up on a player of his talent. It’s not every day that a player like Thomas Jr. becomes available for a trade, especially as he enters just his third season.
As a rookie in 2024, Thomas Jr. finished the season with 87 catches, 1,282 yards, and 10 touchdowns. These statistics earned him his first career Pro Bowl spot and a fourth-place finish in the Offensive Rookie of the Year voting.
He followed an impressive rookie season with 48 catches, 707 yards, and three total touchdowns in 14 games. Although those numbers aren’t as good as his rookie season, his catches and yards would’ve ranked second on the Bills, only behind Khalil Shakir. What’s seen as a down year would have made Thomas Jr. the second-best statistical receiver on the Bills’ entire team.
He’s only 23 years old and entering his third NFL season. Getting a player with Thomas Jr.’s talent while still on a rookie contract can help the Bills save money. The team won’t even need to decide on his fifth-year option until after the upcoming season.
In this case, the talent is undeniable. A player who is only one season removed from being top 10 in every receiving category is available, and it would be unreasonable for the Bills not to pursue him.
The Bad With Brian Thomas Jr.
Brian Thomas Jr.’s disappointing season can be linked to several factors. Throughout the season, he dealt with ankle, shoulder, and wrist injuries that caused him to miss three games.
While he was dealing with injuries, Parker Washington stepped up, and the Jaguars traded for Jakobi Meyers, who made such an immediate impact that the team signed him to an extension.
Thomas Jr. ended up playing the most snaps of any Jaguars receiver in 2025, but his production still declined. He gradually started to become the odd man out in the offense after the Jakobi Meyers trade.
Injuries and other players performing better around him were major reasons for his decreased production last season, but the biggest concern with Thomas Jr. is his catch rate. In 2024, he caught 65.4% of his targets, which isn’t too bad. However, in 2025, his catch rate fell to 52.7%.
Many factors can be discussed about Brian Thomas Jr., but this is why he had a tough season. For a wide receiver to catch just over half of their passes causes a quarterback to lose trust in them, and that became more clear as the season progressed. Trevor Lawrence’s favorite target gradually shifted to Parker Washington, who began the season as the Jaguars’ fourth wide receiver behind Thomas Jr., Dyami Brown, and Travis Hunter.
As the team loses more confidence in Brian Thomas Jr., his trade value drops further. Things might not have gone the way either side hoped this past season, but giving up on him already seems like a reactive decision.
He still shows potential, and despite all the obstacles he’s faced this year, he’s been productive.
Potential Trade Package
Everything at this point is just speculation, but for a player like Brian Thomas Jr., the trade should begin with at least a first-round pick and a player.
In Bill Barnwell’s mock trade, he suggests the Bills give up their first-round pick this year along with Keon Coleman, but the team can do better than that. Just as it’s too early for the Jaguars to give up on Brian Thomas Jr., it’s too early for the Bills to give up on Keon Coleman. Instead of including Coleman, the team could add another mid-to-late round pick alongside Curtis Samuel or Josh Palmer.
If the trade for Brian Thomas Jr. goes through, it should be similar to this:
Bills receive WR Brian Thomas Jr. and a 7th-round pick. Jaguars receive WR Curtis Samuel/Joshua Palmer, Pick #26, and a 5th-round pick.
The Verdict
If Brian Thomas Jr. becomes available for trade again, like he was at the trade deadline, the Bills should seize the opportunity. There are some drawbacks, but his value is currently at an all-time low, and the team needs to address their biggest gap.
A player with this talent isn’t often available so early in their career. If the Bills don’t try to sign him now, they’ll regret missing out.
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