Josh Giddey had a stellar back half of the 2024-25 season. After the All-Star break, he averaged 21.2 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 9.3 assists while shooting 50% from the field and 46% from the 3-point line.
If accomplished over a whole season, each would be a career high. However, the small sample size of these numbers has not sold the Bulls’ front office, and they’re right to hesitate before giving him $30 million per year.
Artūras Karnišovas’ history of mistakes
One of the most puzzling parts of the Bulls’ attempt to rebuild is their distinct contempt for draft capital. Recently, they’ve traded away DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, Alex Caruso, and Lonzo Ball and did not receive an additional first-round pick (they reacquired their pick in the LaVine deal).
As currently constructed, the Chicago Bulls roster is nowhere close to competing for a championship. Despite this, the front office has continued to prioritize continuity rather than change.
This philosophy almost certainly minimized the return for DeRozan and LaVine. By the time Chicago finally pulled the trigger on those deals, their value had dropped substantially.
The result was zero progress in either direction, and yet another play-in tournament appearance.
Giddey’s Inconsistent History
When the Bulls traded for Giddey last year (a one-for-one swap for Caruso), it was the lowest point of Giddey’s career. In the 2024 playoffs, the Thunder benched him for Isaiah Joe in large part due to his struggles shooting and defensively.
Before the All-Star break in 2024-25, those weaknesses remained. He shot only 34.5% from 3 and was removed from the closing lineup due to his poor defense.
Despite flashes of greatness and an impressive 19-game stretch to end the season, Giddey remained inconsistent in his first year with the Bulls. For a team as far away from competing as Chicago, a 19-game sales pitch shouldn’t equal an expensive long-term commitment.
The Bulls Have All the Leverage
While the main dynamic to focus on is that Giddey and the Bulls do not appear to be close to a deal, it’s also important to note that Giddey is a restricted free agent. This means that even though Giddey can go to other teams to find the contract he wants, the Bulls will have the option to match any offer sheet he signs.
Since the Bulls are likely to match any offer, most (if not all) teams will not want to tie up their cap space with an offer they know is not going to work. Essentially, the Bulls are negotiating against themselves, which incentivizes them to not negotiate at all.
Brett Siegel reported that Giddey’s camp is insisting on a deal similar to Jalen Suggs (5 yrs/$150 million) and Immanuel Quickley (5yrs/$162 million), while the Bulls are holding firm at a four-year deal closer to $20 million per year.
As it stands, the Bulls should feel no pressure to give in.
What Are the Alternatives?
If both the Bulls and Giddey hold firm, he will likely end up signing his $11.1 million qualifying offer. This is a one-year deal that would make him an unrestricted free agent in 2026.
This is a major risk for both sides, and a big reason why making a deal now is appealing to both sides (at the right price).
Choosing the qualifying offer is a bet on himself for the 2025-26 season. If Giddey plays on the QO and overachieves, he’ll get a much more lucrative deal next summer. However, if next year is similar, he’ll be forced to sign for less than he could get right now.
Taking into account the history of taking the qualifying offer, both sides would certainly prefer to avoid it.
While locking Giddey into the Bulls’ long-term plans should be a priority for Karnišovas, committing $150 million right now is not the best course of action. As a middling team that should be looking to rebuild, the Bulls require flexibility.
Locking in Giddey at too high a cost can hinder the franchise for years to come.
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