The Chicago Blackhawks Are Closer to Contention Than They Seem

It has been another long year for the Chicago Blackhawks, but the new-look squad is closer to contention than ever.

The Blackhawks are slated to finish the season with the most points in the standings they’ve had since the 2019-2020 season. This would also be the best season under the Kyle Davidson regime, which took over towards the end of the 2021-22 season. 

The Blackhawks Are Younger Than Ever

Since the trade deadline, when the team offloaded vets like Foligno, Murphy, and Dickinson, the roster’s average age has plummeted. Despite excitement around this reality, it’s not always pretty. 

24.05 years old is extremely young, and we’ve seen the lineup hover around this age since the deadline. A major talking point around the youth has been their inability to close out games. On the surface, this can be represented by their 14 points achieved in overtime losses. This puts them in third place in this stat leaguewide and second among teams outside of the playoff picture.

What If They Cleaned It Up?

Saying “if’ and “almost” is great until it’s put into practice, but there are interesting implications to their closing inabilities. If the Blackhawks were able to win seven of those 14 games outright, they would be just three points out of a playoff spot.

Not only have they sent a large number of games to overtime, but they have also seen plenty of late collapses. These are largely a symptom of youth and not being used to the wear and tear of an NHL season. 

The post above from Ben Pope is as of March 3. Since then, the Blackhawks have lost two more games under the same or similar conditions (3/22 vs. NSH, 3/29 vs. NJD).

Assuming this factor can be remedied through age and experience, one can assume as many as eight of these 10 losses could be flipped in the Blackhawks’ direction in the future. Using the same exercise from earlier, this would put them around the 80-point mark (depending on regulation vs. overtime losses) and in a Wild Card spot.

Obviously, this is a very large swing, and it’s unrealistic to expect that as soon as next season. Overall, the Blackhawks are a victim of their youth. It’s exciting hockey, but it’s undisciplined and immature. Thankfully, they might have the perfect coach for the job.

Blashill Understands the Rebuild

Coach Jeff Blashill has been given a lot of flak in his first season with the team, and not without warrant. His ongoing placement of an underperforming Andre Burakovsky on a line with Connor Bedard until very recently was a primary point of contention. 

His first head coaching stint with the Detroit Red Wings was uneventful. One playoff berth in his first season and six subsequent seasons of bottoming out. Because of this, his hiring as the Blackhawks’ coach was a head-scratcher to many. Some argued in favor of Blashill, citing the roster stripdown in year two of his Red Wings tenure as a raw deal for his young head coaching career.

Additionally, Blashill spent three seasons working as an assistant coach in Tampa Bay. Under the legendary Jon Cooper, many, along with the Blackhawks brass, have believed in Blashill’s development during those years.

Something Davidson emphasized in his opening press release for the Blashill hire was developing young players. So far, he has proven that his approach includes a developmental methodology.

Nick Lardis spent most of his most recent NHL stint on the fourth line after questions about how he would adapt to the NHL pace of play. During that time, he noticeably improved his physical grinder mentality that is necessary to compete at the pro level. This improvement led to stellar production he was once promoted into the top six. 

Of course, it doesn’t look the same for each player. Anton Frondell has yet to play a game below the top six, for example. Artyom Levshunov has been running the first power play unit for most of his rookie season.

Ultimately, Blashill and his staff understand the developmental needs of individual players. If he treated Lardis like a Frondell or a Levshunov all season, who knows if the production follows?

It Just Takes Time

The last time the Blackhawks were on the rise, it felt like the turnaround happened in no time. Using the Patrick Kane timeline, he was winning his first Stanley Cup by the end of year three. Many have used that as a reason to believe the rebuild is behind schedule, with Bedard wrapping up year three back in a bottom-three spot in the league.

The Blackhawks selected Frank Nazar a year before Bedard, much like Toews to Kane. The truth is, the Blackhawks’ dynasty didn’t start its formation in 2006.

In 2002, 2003, and 2005, the Blackhawks drafted Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, and Niklas Hjalmarsson, respectively. Corey Crawford, the goaltending anchor for two of the three Cups, joined the Blackhawks organization in the 2003 draft. The team traded for Patrick Sharp in 2005. The truth is, Kane and Toews hit the squad on the upswing, while the current stars were a bit closer to the bottom of the pendulum. 

Keith is an especially interesting case. He played his first NHL game as a 22-year-old. Defenseman Kevin Korchinski, Davidson’s first draft pick, doesn’t turn 22 until this upcoming June.

Development is a marathon, not a sprint. Korchinski is being put in “bust” conversations before he would have even made the league in the previous generation of Blackhawks stars. With players starting their careers earlier than ever, the timeline is only stretching out.

2026-27 Is the Litmus Test

In his introductory press conference in March of 2022, Davidson kept a timeline for his rebuild close to the chest.

“It’s going to take time, and we’re not going to put a timeline on it. Whether it’s three, five, I don’t have that answer right now.”

Next season will be his fifth full season as General Manager of the Chicago Blackhawks. 

Ultimately, next season doesn’t have to end with a Stanley Cup. It doesn’t even have to end with a playoff berth. It just has to show that the Blackhawks are on the rise and are no longer an easy win on the other team’s schedule.

Maybe some Wild Card interest, as the season concludes, on top of a big season from Bedard, Nazar, Knight, and the crew would prove that this team has the backbone to be something special. Not for a season, not for two seasons, but for seasons to come.