The Pittsburgh Penguins have scratched and clawed their way through a grueling month of March, a good portion of which without Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. They currently sit in third place in the Metropolitan division with nine games left to play. Throughout this stretch, there has been one constant in the midst of a lot of injury uncertainty: Erik Karlsson.
Karlsson seems to have rediscovered his game under new head coach, Dan Muse. After three points against the Ottawa Senators on March 26, he set his highest point total (57) as a Penguin in 15 fewer games than his previous mark (56 in 2023-24). In a completely new system, Karlsson is flourishing again in the black and gold.
The Return of Erik Norris-son?
For over a decade now, Karlsson has been one of the best offensive defenseman in the game. The Swedish superstar is a three-time winner of the Norris Trophy, awarded to the NHL’s best defenseman. His most recent win came in the 2022-23 season, where he notched 101 points, becoming the first blueliner to cross the century mark since Brian Leetch 30 years prior.
In 15 games since February 28, Karlsson has netted eight goals and tallied 14 assists, totaling 22 points, the second-highest mark in the NHL in that span. Expanded over a full 82-game season, that rounds out to a 44-77-121 pace. The level that Karlsson is playing at right now is better than his historic 101-point season from three years ago, and it’s been exactly what the Penguins have needed.
Dominating the Advanced Analytics
It’s easy to point to Karlsson’s base stats and see that he is playing at an otherworldly level, but digging a little deeper shows us that the Penguins are straight up a far better team whenever EK65 is on the ice.
Over the last 20 games, Karlsson has the highest on-ice goals percentage (62.9%) of any Pittsburgh defenseman, meaning, when Karlsson is on the ice, the Penguins are responsible for 62.9% of goals scored. This vastly outperforms the expected numbers, but those are still dominant as well. When he’s on the ice, 56.4% of the total xGoals generated are in favor of the Pens. That number drops to 44% when he’s off the ice.
That 12.4% difference is the highest mark on the team. Expand the list to feature every defenseman that’s played at least 400 minutes in that stretch, and all those numbers listed are top-20 in the entire NHL.
With Malkin missing more time, and Crosby suffering another injury against the Senators, Erik Karlsson is back in the saddle leading the charge. If he can continue playing at, or even close to, this all-time level, the Penguins, with help from their depth, can make a strong push for one last run with the core.
The Penguins surviving one of the hardest single-month schedules the team has seen in their history was thanks in large part to No. 65. Seven of his eight goals since February 28 have either tied the game, or given Pittsburgh the lead. When the team needs a big goal, the Swedish Bobby Orr continues to bail them out.
Obviously, in a perfect world, Crosby, Malkin, and Karlsson all share the ice and put up the superstar numbers we know. However, this team, behind Karlsson, has shown they can step up when needed.
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