The NBA regular season has come to an end.
GMs are getting fired, and head coaches are receiving the proverbial ax. But for 20 lucky fan bases, the fun is still going strong as postseason play begins Tuesday evening with the Play-In Tournament.
Some teams are luckier than others, of course. The Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies are among those with less fortune than the rest of the NBA’s playoff-bound Western Conference. For it is they that lost the race to avoid the Play-In— and it is they who must win to secure the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference.
Do that, and a series with the plucky (but unproven) Houston Rockets team awaits. And doesn’t begin until Sunday! The rest! The practice time! It’d be all coming up Grizzlies once more.
However, should Memphis lose to Golden State? They will host a game Friday evening, fighting for their playoff lives with the winner of the Dallas Mavericks-Sacramento Kings play-in game on Wednesday.
A “win” gets you arguably the best team in the NBA, the Oklahoma City Thunder? Lose?
CANCUN ON THREE! And what a disaster that would be…from the No. 2 seed to the lottery in nine weeks. A collapse of truly epic proportions.
The Grizzlies can avoid this fate, but they must play their best basketball soon to do so.
Here’s how Memphis can clinch the No. 7 seed and shock the NBA establishment by beating Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, and the Golden State Warriors.
Keep Jaren Jackson Jr. on the floor
A lot of this is dependent on Triple J.
He has a propensity to foul too often. Jackson Jr.’s 4.2% foul rate has him near the bottom of lists of NBA bigs. The fouls he picks up are not always the most efficient ones, either. When you’re a shot blocker like Jaren is, you’re more likely to pick up contact fouls at the rim. But there are times he will reach, or he will screen poorly, and give up cheap calls.
Even Draymond Green knows he cannot do that for Memphis to be successful.
JJJ has to stay on his feet and not bite on pump fakes. His effort to remain on the court is paramount. The Grizzlies are quite simply better with him on the floor. He is Memphis’ best player this season, and he has simply dominated the Warriors this season. No one can stop Jackson Jr. for Golden State.
Only Jaren, who fouled out in 31 minutes of play just a couple of weeks ago against these Warriors, can stop Jaren. Be smart with contests. Reaching must be minimized. And set feet on screens and be disciplined in movement. If Jackson Jr. logs 38-ish minutes in this game, it is hard to see Memphis losing when he is on the floor.
Getting there is the majority of the battle.
Make Moses Moody and Gary Payton II Beat You
This could fairly easily be Jonathan Kuminga if Warriors head coach Steve Kerr gives him the opportunity to play.
But among the main Warriors in the rotation against the Clippers this past Sunday, it is these two that seemed most ripe for the picking in terms of attacking on either end of the floor. Gary Payton II often gets credited with stout defense, but his offensive touch leaves something to be desired. On the flip side, if Moody is not getting buckets, he is not as helpful to the Warriors as he could be.
Draymond Green is playing some of the best basketball of his career. Steph Curry, who can be forced into mistakes (eight turnovers against the Clippers), is still lethal from beyond the arc.
And while Jimmy Butler may be banged up and tired, his ability to create his own shot and compete on both ends must be respected.
Even Brandin Podziemski — who, of course, is no Curry or Butler — is capable of taking over games for stretches and stuffing stat sheets. But Moody and Payton II (and Kuminga), while talented, are more flawed in terms of bigger holes in their respective games.
Whatever coverages and assignments/sets are called, the priority should be forcing these players to make the winning play. Be physical with Curry. Double-team Butler. If a non-star player does you in, tip your cap.
You know who Golden State WANTS you to be. Don’t let them.
Quick Keys
- Don’t foul Jimmy Butler. Jimmy is one of the absolute best at drawing contact. Butler’s team this season is 17-7 when he shoots eight or more free throws. Four or fewer? 10-10. Those are better odds.
- Make Stephen Curry a driver. Fighting over screens must be a priority for whoever gets this defensive assignment with Jaylen Wells out due to injury. Vince Williams Jr., Scotty Pippen Jr., and others will surely get this gig. Force him to pass and see if eight turnovers come out again as they did against the Clippers.
- Trust Zach Edey. Edey’s drop coverage is part of the reason Curry scored 52 points against Memphis the last time these two teams played. Still, Edey was a +13 in his 32 minutes on the floor as he grabbed 16 boards and swatted four shots. Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. should all play 38 or so minutes in this game. Zach Edey should see near that number as well.
If Memphis’ stars stay on the floor, their fresh legs and ability to exploit mismatches will keep the game close. If that happens, the tempo Memphis pushes and the overtime game that the Warriors played Sunday may catch up to Golden State.
And lead the Grizzlies to a golden opportunity— a win, and a playoff series with the Houston Rockets.
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