The Lead’s 2025-26 NBA Predictions

The 2025-2026 NBA season has arrived. Parity hasn’t ever been stronger, as the league could potentially crown a new champion for the eighth straight year, an active league record — although the Oklahoma City Thunder may have something to say about that.

Let’s dive into analysis from a few of The Lead’s writers on what to look for this season:

Who Will Improve the Most and Who Will Have the Biggest Decline?

Shayan Malik:

Most Improved: Atlanta

The Atlanta Hawks should be expected to have the largest win increase this season. Both Dyson Daniels and Zaccharie Risacher are projected to make significant improvements, and with Kristaps Porziņģis joining Trae Young, Atlanta now features one of the league’s best offensive units.

The strong defensive capabilities of Daniels, Risacher, Onyeka Okongwu, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Jalen Johnson should allow the Hawks to compete with teams on that end of the floor.

https://twitter.com/PacersLead/status/1980676749727051806

Biggest decline: Indiana

With the season-ending loss of Tyrese Haliburton and the departure of Myles Turner, the Indiana Pacers are likely to go from an NBA Finals team to having one of the worst records in the Eastern Conference. The trio of Andrew Nembhard, Bennedict Mathurin and Aaron Nesmith, led by Pascal Siakam, is solid but may not be enough to compete in a young and improving East.

Mac Pham:

Most Improved: Orlando

Biggest decline: Houston

Benjamin Stautzenbach:

Most Improved: Atlanta

Biggest decline: LA Clippers

What Will This Year’s Playoff Field Look Like?

Pham:

East:

1. Knicks
2. Cavaliers
3. Hawks
4. Magic
5. Pistons
6. Bucks
7. Celtics
8. Raptors
9. Pacers
10. Sixers

It’s a wide open Eastern Conference this year with the injuries to Jayson Tatum and Haliburton — stars of two teams that represented the East in the Finals the last two seasons.

The seeding for seeds 3-8 should be competitive, but the gap between the Knicks and the Cavaliers is significant between them and the rest of the East. Atlanta is a dark horse to come out of the East with them retooling around Trae Young. The addition of Kristaps Porzingis to space the floor along with the leaps from the trio of Zaccharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels gives Young his best supporting cast in years.

West:

1. Lakers
2. Thunder
3. Nuggets
4. Timberwolves
5. Grizzlies
6. Spurs
7. Rockets
8. Warriors
9. Suns
10. Clippers

While Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have led their respective teams to a championship in their prime, the rest of the West has several teams well overdue for a championship appearance.

In San Antonio, De’Aaron Fox is going to be playing with not just the best teammate in his career, Victor Wembanyama, he’s also playing with a legitimate 2K cheat code. Star guards like Anthony Edwards and Luka Doncic have been knocking on the door for a title.

Other guards like Fox, Ja Morant and Devin Booker only add to the loaded West that some talents like them are going to be in the Play-In when they should actually be in the top four. It’s a real chance the West could finish with the top-six teams earning over 50 wins and perhaps the Play-In teams finishing with a winning record, similar to the 2023-2024 season.

Malik:

East: 

1. Knicks
2. Cavaliers
3. Magic
4. Hawks
5. Pistons
6. Heat
7. Bucks
8. Raptors
9. Celtics 
10. Bulls

West:

1. Thunder
2. Nuggets
3. Timberwolves 
4. Rockets 
5. Lakers
6. Warriors
7. Spurs
8. Mavericks 
9. Grizzlies
10. Clippers 

Stautzenbach:

East:

1. Bucks
2. Hawks 
3. Knicks
4. Cavaliers 
5. Pistons
6. Magic 
7. Raptors 
8. Celtics
9. Pacers 
10. Heat

West:

1. Thunder  
2. Rockets
3. Nuggets
4. Timberwolves
5. Spurs 
6. Lakers
7. Mavericks 
8. Grizzlies
9. Warriors
10. Clippers

Award predictions:

Pham:

MVP: Anthony Edwards

DPOTY: Herb Jones

ROY: Yang Hansen

MIP: Andrew Nembhard

COTY: Chris Finch

Sixth man: Jordan Clarkson

Malik: 

MVP: Nikola Jokic 

DPOY: Dyson Daniels 

ROY: V.J. Edgecombe 

MIP: Michael Porter Jr. 

COTY: Quin Snyder 

Sixth man: Naz Reid 

Stautzenbach:

MVP: Victor Wembanyama 

DPOTY: Bam Adebeyo 

ROY: Cooper Flagg

MIP: Deni Avdija

COTY: Quin Snyder

Sixth man: Anfernee Simons

What Are Your Conference Finals and Finals Predictions?

Pham: 

ECF: Magic vs. Cavs

WCF: Lakers vs. Thunder

Finals: Magic vs. Lakers

Champion: Lakers

Malik:

ECF: Knicks vs. Cavs 

WCF: Thunder vs. Timberwolves 

Finals: Knicks vs. Timberwolves  

Champion: Timberwolves

Stautzenbach:

ECF: Hawks vs. Bucks

WCF: Thunder vs. Nuggets

Finals: Hawks vs. Thunder 

Champion: Thunder

The Atlanta Hawks are going to surprise a lot of people this year. Pairing Porzingis star players Jalen Johnson and Trae Young means this team has the ability to score from anywhere. The Hawks will soar all the way to the finals.