The days of your favorite NHL superstars locking up long-term contracts while they’re in their prime may be numbered. In 2013, the league reduced the maximum contract term from 15 years to eight. This week, the NHL is reducing it to seven years as the new collective bargaining agreement kicks in.
While fans can still expect long-term contracts, the players who are signing these deals are already very different.
The Long-Term Era of the 2010s
In the late 2000s and early 2010s, NHL teams were signing players to contracts of 10-plus years. Teams would target their star players once they had reached their athletic prime, usually from age 24 to 30. In 2012, Sidney Crosby signed a 12-year contract, while Ryan Suter and Zach Parise signed 13-year contracts.
As the salary cap has risen over the years, the way teams and players view long-term contracts has changed.
A Rising Cap Changes the Game
In 2012, the NHL’s salary cap was $70.2 million. By 2019, it had crept up to $81.5 million, and this upcoming season’s cap is set at $104 million. The cap has steadily increased each of the past four years, and it doesn’t seem to be slowing down.
The league has already announced a $9.5 million increase for next season, and the NHL plans to continue raising it as long as the game continues to grow revenue.
As the salary cap rises, star players choose not to lock themselves into a deal that could become a below-market contract several years down the road. This creates an incentive for the league’s best players to sign shorter deals now and reassess their value when the cap is higher.
The Shift Toward Short-Term Superstar Deals
Recently, more and more star players have signed shorter-term deals. Several young players have already cemented themselves as premier players in the NHL.
Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini have each signed five-year deals this summer. This allows them to re-sign for a higher average annual value (AAV) when they are 26 years old and still in their prime.
Even multiple-time All-Stars like Jason Robertson and Connor McDavid signed for just one and two years, respectively, in their most recent contracts. This makes it possible for them to make more money down the line as the cap increases.
The Risk for Superstar Players
Though certain long-term deals work out better for the player than the team, taking a shorter-term deal could still be smarter. The risk comes if a player declines with age or gets bogged down with injuries. This means they could have trouble commanding the same AAV when their short-term contract expires.
Instead of securing guaranteed money through their late 20s and early 30s, stars are betting on their ability to continue performing at an elite level.
Teams Are Betting on the Next Generation
With well-tested superstars being hesitant to sign long-term, teams are responding by gambling on young, up-and-coming players.
Many teams have already handed out long-term contracts at relatively high AAVs to young players. These players are not completely proven at the NHL level but are viewed as having superstar potential. By signing with this potential in mind, teams may end up saving future cap space.
One shining example of this is 20-year-old defenseman Zeev Buium, who just signed an eight-year, $75.04 million contract with the Vancouver Canucks. Though he has only played 76 NHL games, Vancouver is confident that Buium has the potential to become a top defenseman in this league.
The New Long-Term Deal
Although there will never be another contract quite like the ones signed in the early 2010s, teams are still trying to lock up their best players for as long as they can, even if they have to do so a little earlier in a player’s career.
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