Back in the fall of 2018, the Baltimore Orioles were coming off the worst year in franchise history, finishing 47-115 — a season many Orioles fans considered the lowest point of their lives. Fans saw the team trade their face of the franchise, 3B Manny Machado, as well as their star closer, Zack Britton, to their AL East rival, the New York Yankees. Fans also saw the team play horrible baseball and let their longtime manager, Buck Showalter, leave.
The one thing that Baltimore fans had going was their proud history. Most older fans could remember their dominance back in the 70s and 80s, when the team made six World Series appearances from 1966-1983, winning three of them — a run that still inspires hope and pride.
Instead of building a monster of a team that would contend for championships for years to come, the Orioles’ decline over the past eight years highlights issues rooted in management decisions, starting with one man… Mike Elias.
The Promise of a New Regime
After the train wreck of a season that 2018 was, the Orioles quickly went into rebuild mode and hired former Houston Astros assistant general manager Mike Elias as the team’s next GM. The team hired him, hoping he could repeat the magic that happened in Houston.
As a member of the Astros, Elias took part in the team’s rebuild. In Houston, he played a key role in overseeing multiple draft classes, during which the Astros were one of the top-run organizations in all of baseball.
At the time, many in the baseball world thought this was a home run hire by the Orioles. With Elias hired and the team’s foundation completely demolished, all that Baltimore fans had to look at was up.
Young Orioles’ Early Success
Under Mike Elias’s leadership, the team got two All-Star-caliber players with his first two picks, drafting Adley Rutschman with the first-overall pick. He’s become a two-time All-Star for the Orioles, and then in Round 2, the current face of the franchise, Gunnar Henderson, who won Rookie of the Year in 2023, is a one-time All-Star who finished fourth in MVP voting in 2024.
Not only did Elias select two cornerstone players in his first draft, but he also added Jackson Holliday, a player who developed into a top prospect in baseball and a regular on the team’s roster, playing second base. After years of loading up in the draft and landing multiple top prospects, the team finally started winning again. Baltimore posted its first over-.500 season since 2016 in 2022 with an 83-79 record.
The following year, in 2023, Baltimore followed that winning season by surpassing all expectations, winning the AL East for the first time since 2014, and finished with the best record in the American League with a record of 101-61.
But beneath all the good times that Baltimore fans were starting to enjoy, cracks began to show. Fans first noticed when the team won their first division title close to 10 years ago; they were immediately swept in the ALDS (American League Divisional Series)
When Did It All Fall Apart?
The fall from grace started when Baltimore traded for Brewers ace Corbin Burnes, a three-time All-Star and Cy Young winner on an expiring contract. Elias sent Joey Ortiz (MLB Pipeline’s No. 63 prospect), LHP DL Hall, and the 2024 Competitive Balance Round A pick (No. 34 overall) for a one-year rental.
Elias gave Baltimore what they desperately needed: a frontline pitcher who would win games when on the mound. But the trade highlighted a deeper problem. The team was overflowing with elite position players with the likes of Jackson Holliday (No. 1 prospect), Coby Mayo (No. 10 prospect), and Samuel Basallo (No. 11 prospect). The one thing this franchise lacked was pitching depth.
Instead of using its riches of elite position prospects to acquire depth at the pitching position for years to come, the team instead chose to hold on to every prospect. This left the team in a position where they were clearly lacking on the mound.
Elias’s method is clear: keep the bats, trust in his players’ development, and things will work out in the end. But Elias forgot another big aspect of professional baseball. In the MLB, to win, teams have to take risks. One small risk isn’t going to move the needle.
Corbin Burnes left Baltimore after a year. The team’s approach of continuing to hoard elite bats ended up biting them in the butt when their development didn’t reach the majors, and now their trade value is gone.
The result was that the team got worse, the rest of the division got better, and the rotation held the Orioles back. Elias’ refusal to invest in pitching has cost this team.
The Orioles’ Rebuild Failed Because of Complacency
The Orioles’ rebuild didn’t fail due to a lack of talent — the team still has plenty of it. The failure wasn’t because of bad drafting. In fact, since hiring Elias, the Orioles have hit on some major picks. What ultimately doomed this team was refusing to invest in the foundation while in win-now mode.
After the 2023, 101-win season, the team looked like a dynasty in the making. The next step was obvious: invest in the starting rotation. With a wave of young hitters on the horizon and a top farm system, Baltimore had the capital to do it.
Instead, they chose complacency. The front office refused to budge from its approach and invested in the roster. Instead, they decided to keep trusting that the development of homegrown prospects would solve all their problems. After multiple years of ignoring the giant hole in the room, that caustic approach has clipped the Orioles’ wings. In a bird that had the destiny to soar to the skies, it now falls flat on its face as it looks up.
If the Orioles can’t turn this season around, their lack of investment risk might ultimately cost the team its future, as well as Mike Elias job.
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