By Mark Wallis, Co-Host of Weekday Wagers and CEO of JustTheStatsSports.com.
Last week’s edition of Walking the Dogs couldn’t have gone much better.
All three underdogs covered the spread— and all three won outright. UNLV, USC and Georgia each entered as underdogs and walked away with victories, completing a 3-0 sweep for the segment. That doesn’t mean the goal is to force three more plays onto this week’s card. The value simply isn’t there.
Only two games fit closely enough with the underdog profile that has been producing results, so this week’s Walking the Dogs card gets trimmed down to Coastal Carolina +1.5 and Air Force +1.5. The dogs are identified using the model projections at JustTheStatsSports.com, but the final question remains the same: does the matchup give the underdog a legitimate path to cover — or better yet, win the game outright? This week, both do.
Coastal Carolina +1.5 vs. Appalachian State
Appalachian State opened the season with three consecutive victories, but the Mountaineers have suddenly hit a wall.
After losing 41-31 to NC State, App State followed it with an ugly 10-3 loss to Old Dominion in which almost nothing worked offensively. Quarterback Malachi Singleton completed only 5 of 23 passes for 72 yards with an interception, while the Mountaineers converted just 1 of 13 third downs. Three turnovers only made matters worse. That performance becomes especially difficult to ignore when laying points on the road.
Coastal Carolina hasn’t exactly been a model of consistency either, but the Chanticleers finally showed signs of life last week. Coastal went on the road and built a 27-0 lead over Marshall before holding on for a 27-21 victory. Running back Dominic Lee-Knicely was the driving force, carrying the ball 25 times for 169 yards and a touchdown. That running game could be crucial against an App State offense that may struggle to create separation if this turns into another low-possession game.
Coastal’s defense also continues to make life difficult when opponents get close to the goal line. The Chanticleers rank among the national leaders in red-zone defense, allowing opponents to score on just 65.2% of their opportunities.
Neither side has done enough to deserve much separation in the market. That makes the home underdog attractive. App State may ultimately escape with the victory, but after watching the Mountaineers score three points and convert one third down last week, laying points with them on the road is asking quite a bit.
Coastal Carolina +1.5 is the cover dog for Week 7.
Air Force +1.5 vs. UNLV
Air Force is the more intriguing of the two underdogs because the Falcons have a realistic chance to win outright. The Falcons enter at 4-1 and riding a three-game winning streak, and their most recent performance looked exactly like the type of football that can make them miserable to play against. Air Force ran for a staggering 439 yards in a 28-7 win over Northern Illinois. That style matters. When Air Force controls the line of scrimmage, drains the clock and puts together long possessions, opponents can find themselves playing a completely different game than they’re accustomed to.
UNLV comes in at 4-2 after grinding out a 13-7 victory over North Dakota State, so this certainly isn’t a spot to dismiss the Rebels. Their defense has shown it can win games even when the offense isn’t putting up huge numbers. But playing Air Force at Falcon Stadium creates a completely different challenge. The Falcons’ rushing attack can shorten the game, reduce total possessions and put tremendous pressure on every UNLV drive. In a matchup with such a small point spread, that style gives Air Force a legitimate path not only to stay inside the number, but to control the game outright.
And that’s exactly what we want from a Walking the Dogs selection.
Taking the points provides some protection, but Air Force +1.5 is the live dog of the week.
Week 7 Walking the Dogs
Coastal Carolina +1.5 vs. Appalachian State
The Mountaineers are coming off a disastrous offensive performance, while Coastal enters with some momentum after winning at Marshall. With such little separation between these teams, getting the Chanticleers at home with points is worth the look.
Air Force +1.5 vs. UNLV
Air Force has won three straight and just produced 439 rushing yards in its latest victory. The Falcons’ ability to dominate possession and shorten the game gives them an excellent opportunity to win this matchup outright.
Last week produced three underdogs and three outright victories.
Now there are two more dogs ready for their walk.
All model projection data sourced from JustTheStatsSports.com.
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