Three Significant Trends Emerged From the 2024 NBA Offseason

Generally, this NBA offseason felt like a quiet one.

It certainly marks a step down from the chaotic days of, say, 2016 or 2019.

It’s hard to argue against that. The list of significant movement, mainly in free agency, ranks far lower from the moves made nearly a decade ago. Those seeds planted a while ago, but this year, NBA fans notably saw some developments which could be here for the long haul.

With the 2024 NBA offseason winding down, The Lead is here to look at the bigger picture for this offseason. What trends emerged, are they here to stay, and have they changed any NBA betting odds?

Scared of the second apron

Whether legitimate or not, NBA teams are starting to fully use the second apron and other new-ish financial restrictions to justify cutting costs.

For context, the NBA and NBPA ratified a new collective bargaining agreement in April 2023. That new CBA (which lasts through the 2029-30 season) kicked in starting in July 2023, but the fallout of it really started to manifest with this offseason.

Denver notably allowed starting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to walk, one year after allowing Bruce Brown to do the same. Unlike Brown, the Nuggets possessed the ability to essentially give KCP whatever deal he wanted. For reasons unknown, he chose Orlando.

The Los Angeles Clippers issued a statement once superstar Paul George bolted to Philadelphia. Again, the Clippers had the leverage and flexibility to re-sign George. Instead, L.A. basically used the CBA as the reason for not bringing him back:

“We explored an opt-in and trade scenario, but it would have left us in a similar position under the new CBA, with very little asset value to justify the restrictions,” the Clippers wrote on June 30. “We will miss Paul. At the same time, we’re excited by the opportunities we’ve now afforded, including greater flexibility under the new CBA.”

So, why then give James Harden a two-year, $70 million deal? Where was his market compared to PG’s?

Golden State faced a similar choice letting Klay Thompson go to Dallas via a sign-and-trade.

The new CBA certainly includes a lot of penalties for too much spending. But does that become more an excuse than justifiable reason for letting quality talent go out the door?

The mind games of controlling other teams’ draft picks

The true value of NBA draft picks remains all over the place.

Prior to the offseason, over a third of the league (12 teams) remained without multiple first-rounders until 2025. Five teams owed four or more first-round picks to other franchises beginning in 2025.

Then, there was two significant trades which made the weird market for picks even weirder.

The first was the Mikal Bridges blockbuster deal between Brooklyn and New York. The Knicks forked over four unprotected firsts (2025, 2027, 2029, 2031), an unprotected first-round swap in 2028 and an additional first from Milwaukee in 2025. Bridges is durable and emerged as a legit starter on a Finals team with Phoenix, then blossomed more with the Nets.

He’s also never made an All-NBA… or All-Star team.

The other move came again from the Nets. Brooklyn got back their firsts in 2025 and 2026 from Houston. In exchange, the Rockets got:

• one 2025 first-round pick swap (Houston/Oklahoma City for Phoenix)
• The Suns first in 2027
• The firsts in 2029 to the two best of Dallas, Phoenix and Houston

Those pair of moves are significant, in the bigger picture for three reasons.

First, first-round-draft-pick value continues to be over-inflated for top-50 or better players. That probably goes back to what Minnesota gave up for Rudy Gobert, or even what Phoenix dealt to bring in Kevin Durant. Ditto for the Cavaliers and what they had to give to get Donovan Mitchell, or Milwaukee for Damian Lillard.

Second, teams on the receiving end for these future “doomsday outlooks” boast a ton of leverage moving forward. Like the Nets, other teams down the road will need to give up more in the long-term future to get those picks back and properly initiate a rebuild.

Lastly, and most importantly, teams less and less are caring about the immediate future (unless you’re San Antonio). The Kings dished out a 2031 first to get DeMar DeRozan. Will even half this team still be there by then? Minnesota gave up a first and a first-round swap to pick at No. 8 this year. Could that be used as leverage for the Spurs to get Anthony Edwards way down the road? How about Phoenix with KD and Houston? Was this trend why those rumors emerged?

Goodbye, NBA free agency?

NBA free agency not being the same as most fans know it isn’t completely new. The aforementioned list of blockbuster moves signified that superstars will likely get their preferred destination, one way or another.

But free agency went another step in a different direction. Again, look at the movement this offseason.

Notice the trend? Most of the significant free agents signed new deals with their respective teams. Again, George remains the lone exception among the NBA’s best of the best.

Most of that stemmed from in-season deals, namely Pascal Siakam with Indiana and OG Anunoby with New York. The reporting is limited, but we can reasonably assume those deals weren’t happening without some knowledge they would return to those teams. After all, why give up so much just for that player to leave a year or less later? There’s a shared understanding to return.

Even for non-superstars, that trend still occurred. Example: Immanuel Quickley with Toronto.

This might be the new “free agency” moving forward. Cap space is becoming less and less valuable in July. It’s becoming more important the rest of the year: avoiding the second apron and maintaining flexibility to bring in a superstar player. Then, that player will a) already be on a long-term deal or b) receive a new deal before hitting the market.

Most of the movement came via the “glue” guys. Among the movement this offseason, most of those players ranged from borderline starters to sixth to eighth players off the bench.

What does all of this mean down the road?

Long story short: free agency and the offseason, as most NBA fans originally knew it, won’t be the same. At least under this new CBA. What does that mean for interest in the league among fans or how teams construct contenders? Who knows.

What is known: things won’t return to “normal” for a while.