Roster depth is an asset for NBA teams. However, the Toronto Raptors are testing the limits of balance.
An unwritten requirement of getting over the hump and winning a championship is having a good rotation— a set of players who can come in and do the dirty work while the starters rest.
For Toronto, their rotations are becoming clogged by players with overlapping skill sets, and minute distributions are becoming less strategic and more experimental. While the future seems bright, the Raptors’ success will begin to stall if they don’t make tough decisions. Sooner rather than later, the front office must cement next season’s roster and figure out what to do with the leftover pieces.
Establishing the Core
An NBA team can have a maximum of 18 players on their roster at once. These 18 players usually comprise 15 standard contracts and three two-way contracts. Teams build their rosters with a skill hierarchy in mind: the stars at the top, starters and skilled role players to support them, and bench players to provide depth. This approach to roster optimization has a high rate of success.
When thinking about the players who are going to lead the Raptors moving forward, Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley come to mind first.
Brandon Ingram will be added to the core after the Raptors acquired his talents in a trade that sent most of the assets from the Pascal Siakam trade to the Pelicans just one year later.
Ochai Agbaji and Gradey Dick built on their time with the Raptors last year by improving themselves into premier role players. They’ve earned their addition to the group.
Finally, Jakob Poeltl is quietly having a career year, averaging career highs in both points and rebounds. He has been a steady presence for the Raptors, who can look to him for pick-and-roll offense or size. His quality play puts him in the core.
If we sort the players in this group by positions we have: one point guard (Quickley), two shooting guards (Dick, Agbaji), two small forwards (Barrett, Ingram), one power forward (Barnes) and one center (Poeltl) — seven of the 15 standard contracts spots.
2024 Rookie Class
When establishing the 2025-26 roster, the Raptors will look at the four players they drafted in 2024: Ja’Kobe Walter, Jonathan Mogbo, Jamal Shead and Ulrich Chomche.
Walter, Mogbo and Shead have validated a roster spot for themselves with their play. Chomche, just 19 years old, will be kept on a two-way contract for another year. This will allow him to develop more with the Raptors 905 in the G League. Walter will create competition for the starting shooting guard spot with Dick and Agbaji. Off the bench, Shead can provide stable backup point guard minutes, and Mogbo will look to do the same for the power forward position.
Although undrafted, sharpshooter Jamison Battle has carved out a role on this Raptors roster. He serves as a Swiss Army knife that can punish teams who struggle to defend shots from beyond the arc.
Adding four of this season’s rookies to next year’s roster means the Raptors will have two point guards (Quickley, Shead), three shooting guards (Dick, Agbaji, Walter), three small forwards (Barrett, Ingram, Battle), two power forwards (Barnes, Mogbo) and still one center (Poeltl) — 11 out of 15 possible standard contracts, plus Chomche’s two-way contract.
2025 Rookie Class
The Raptors also have two picks in this year’s draft: one first-round lottery pick and one second-round pick via Portland. They acquired Portland’s second-round pick in their trade for Davion Mitchell. While their positions aren’t guaranteed, it’s likely they’ll remain on the roster. This is especially true since the second-round pick will be in the top half of the second round, ensuring a higher quality player.
The Raptors would be wise to give the second-round pick a two-way contract, ensuring he can develop in the G League and not spend the whole season drowning in the Raptors’ increasingly deep rotation. That’s 12 out of 15 possible standard contracts allotted, with two two-way contracts doled out as well.
Bottom of the Rotation
Injuries and a lack of success at the beginning of the season gave the Raptors a season to experiment. It also allowed them to dig deep into their rotation for diamonds hidden in the depths.
End-of-season standouts A.J. Lawson, Orlando Robinson and Jared Rhoden look promising. In the case of Lawson and Rhoden, it would be more realistic to choose either one or the other moving forward, since there are already three shooting guards on the hypothetical roster.
Lawson and Rhoden’s time with the Raptors has been nearly identical statistically, but the scale tips in Lawson’s favor, as he makes threes at a 33% clip (compared to Rhoden’s 26.5%). He also leads the two in points, rebounds and assists by a slimmer margin while being a year younger.
Orlando Robinson can provide backup center minutes while also shooting 37% from beyond the arc, as he’s done during his time in Toronto. These players aren’t exactly starter or elite-role-player caliber, yet they can still be useful on the court.
With 14 out of the 15 possible standard contracts and two two-way contracts given out, the last standard and two-way contract will most likely come from free agency.
The Raptors usually don’t sign the biggest fish on the market. However, they could still manage to sign a rotation player at a bargain value. Either that or they could re-sign one of their players whose contract expires at the end of the season in Chris Boucher and Garrett Temple.
The Depth Dilemma
While it seems that every piece fits into place for this puzzle, the bigger picture presents a challenge.
The Raptors’ depth at the wing positions is too good. While that seems a bit incredulous — you want your team to be as good as possible — there’s no perfect world where Dick, Agbaji and Walter all fit in the rotation as shooting guards. This is especially true with Barrett, Ingram and Barnes occupying the bulk of the forward minutes.
When deciding who starts, lock in Quickley, Barnes and Poeltl. They’re either the best at their positions or have no competition. Barrett, Ingram, Dick and Agbaji will have to battle it out for the shooting guard and small forward spots.
Where does the top-ten pick from this year’s draft slot in? Or the four sophomores from the 2024 draft? Players can only sacrifice so much of their playing time before they start to jeopardize their careers. Their mindset will shift, and they’ll start to wonder: Is the grass really greener on the other side? Could playing for another team benefit me more than playing for Toronto?
The Big Red Button
There’s a solution that Masai Ujiri and the rest of the front office will consider. It’s a massive risk, but it’s the same kind of risk the Raptors have taken before. This ended up in them winning their first-ever championship: a roster shakeup via trade.
A fate-altering trade can be approached from many angles, with one player likely remaining untouchable (Barnes). Toronto has intriguing pieces like Quickley and Barrett that can be flipped for a positional upgrade. Possessing all of their first-round picks and six of their seven second-round picks in the coming years gives them added flexibility to pursue an all-league player to aid in their pursuit of a second championship.
Whatever the Raptors do, it’s clear that the clock is ticking. While this surplus of rotation-caliber players looks like a gift, it can very quickly turn into a messy fight for playing time.
The Raptors need to stop admiring the view and start focusing on the bigger picture.
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