By Mark Wallis, Co-Host of Weekday Wagers and CEO of JustTheStatsSports.com

College football underdogs are rarely created equal. There is a major difference between taking points simply because they are available and identifying a team the betting market may have undervalued. That is the foundation of Walkin’ The Dogs. The goal each week is to find underdogs whose model projection, matchup and market number create a legitimate path not only to covering the spread, but potentially winning outright.

Week 4 gives us three of those opportunities.

Missouri +6.5 at Mississippi State

This is the largest disagreement between the betting market and the JTSS model among this week’s selections. Mississippi State enters the matchup undefeated and has quickly become one of the early surprises in the SEC. Sophomore quarterback Kamario Taylor has thrown 11 touchdowns against just one interception, helping push the Bulldogs into the national rankings after entering the season with significantly lower expectations.

Sportsbooks have responded by installing Mississippi State as a 6.5-point home favorite, with the Bulldogs priced around -240 on the moneyline and Missouri available near +195. The JTSS model sees the matchup very differently.

Missouri carries a 52.9% model win probability, compared with 47.1% for Mississippi State, with a projected score of approximately Missouri 27.9, Mississippi State 26.6. That creates a substantial disconnect. The betting market is pricing Mississippi State as nearly a touchdown better, while the model projects Missouri to win outright.

There are legitimate reasons for the Bulldogs to be favored. Taylor has been outstanding, Mississippi State already owns a notable conference victory over South Carolina, and the game will be played under the lights in Starkville.

Missouri, meanwhile, has not looked particularly dominant despite its unbeaten start. The Tigers needed to work their way back into games and quarterback Simmons is coming off an uneven performance in a 27-17 victory over Troy. But that is also what makes the number attractive. Missouri does not need to dominate Mississippi State. It simply needs to remain within six points in a matchup the model views as essentially even, and actually tilts slightly toward the Tigers.

Both teams have enough offensive firepower to create problems, while both secondaries have shown vulnerability. That increases the possibility of a competitive game where one or two late possessions decide the outcome. When the model projects the underdog to win outright and the market is still offering nearly a touchdown, the points become difficult to ignore.

The Play: Missouri +6.5

Ole Miss +3.5 at Florida

Ole Miss enters Week 4 in an entirely different situation. The Rebels are coming off an emotional victory over LSU in a game surrounded by significant attention and buildup involving Lane Kiffin. That immediately creates the possibility of an emotional letdown as Ole Miss travels to Gainesville for another difficult SEC matchup.

Florida is favored by 3.5 points, but the JTSS model sees almost nothing separating these teams. Florida carries a 51.9% win probability, compared with 48.1% for Ole Miss. The projected score is approximately Florida 29.9, Ole Miss 29.1. That is less than one point of separation. The sportsbook is giving Ole Miss 3.5.

That difference matters considerably because the Rebels are getting through the key number of three in a matchup the model essentially views as a coin flip. Ole Miss also has an important advantage at quarterback. Trinidad Chambliss has emerged as one of the most dynamic players in college football, and his performance has pushed him into the national conversation.

Florida certainly presents problems of its own. The Gators are averaging 7.7 yards per play, and running back Jadan Baugh leads the SEC in rushing. Florida’s ability to generate explosive plays is one of the primary concerns for an Ole Miss defense that has shown some vulnerability. That is why there is a legitimate case for Florida winning the game outright.

But an outright Florida victory does not necessarily beat this ticket. If the game develops into the type of high-scoring, possession-for-possession matchup many expect, getting Chambliss and more than a field goal provides significant protection. Ole Miss also falls into an interesting historical model range. Underdogs carrying a model win probability in the upper 40s have historically been worth monitoring because the model is essentially identifying a near-even matchup while the sportsbook continues to offer points.

There is certainly some risk coming off the emotionally charged LSU victory, but +3.5 is enough to compensate for it.

The Play: Ole Miss +3.5

San Diego State +2.5 at Toledo

The final selection may be the biggest contrast in styles. Toledo enters the matchup with the more explosive offensive numbers. The Rockets are averaging approximately 44 points and 459 yards per game, including more than 312 passing yards per contest. San Diego State has been considerably less productive, averaging roughly 25 points and 328 total yards. On the surface, Toledo being favored makes sense.

The JTSS model disagrees. San Diego State carries a 58.5% win probability, compared with only 41.5% for Toledo, with a projected score of approximately San Diego State 25.5, Toledo 22.4. The betting market has Toledo favored by roughly 2.5 points. The model has San Diego State winning by approximately three.

That creates more than a five-point difference between the market spread and the model projection. San Diego State’s path to controlling the matchup likely comes through the running game. The Aztecs are averaging approximately 191 rushing yards per game, and establishing that ground attack would accomplish several things at once: shorten the game, reduce the number of possessions, keep Toledo’s passing attack on the sideline and prevent the Rockets from dictating tempo.

Toledo’s offense deserves respect, but its defense has allowed 29.3 points per game, compared with 24.7 for San Diego State. That gives the Aztecs an opportunity to turn the game away from the offensive shootout Toledo would prefer and into a more physical, possession-oriented contest. And once again, this is not simply a case of taking points with an underdog.

The model actually projects San Diego State to win outright.

Getting +2.5 on top of that projection makes the Aztecs one of the more intriguing dogs on the Week 4 board.

The Play: San Diego State +2.5

Week 4 Walkin’ The Dogs

Week 4 gives us three very different underdogs.

Missouri +6.5 presents the largest market disagreement, with the JTSS model projecting the Tigers to win outright despite Mississippi State laying nearly a touchdown.

Ole Miss +3.5 gives us more than a field goal in a matchup the model sees as essentially even.

And San Diego State +2.5 offers another situation where the sportsbook lists our team as the underdog while the model projects it to win outright.

The common thread is not simply taking points.

It is finding spots where the market price and model projection disagree enough to create an opportunity.

Odds were current at the time of posting and are subject to change. Please bet responsibly.