Two months ago, the Cincinnati Reds entered the month of May first in the NL Central with a 20-11 record. Setting a franchise record for most wins before May, it felt like winning baseball was back in Cincinnati.
Since then, the ball club has fallen to last in their division due to a miserable May and June. During that span, the Reds posted the second-worst record in the majors at 19-34. Although the season is far from over, it feels like the sky is falling in Cincinnati.
No Lead in the MLB Is Safe
Hard to believe that at one point, this Reds bullpen was the best in the MLB. After 31 days of baseball, the bullpen staff had a 2.59 ERA, which ranked first in the MLB. Peaking at a 2.31 ERA in April, it felt like every time the pen doors opened, the Reds were in a great position to finish the game. The bullpen was so good that the Reds had started the season 12-0 in games decided by two runs or less, which tied the 1987 Brewers for the most all-time.
Fast forward to today, Cincinnati’s bullpen holds a 4.66 ERA, which ranks 24th in the MLB. If you take out the historic months of March and April, they sit at 28th with a 5.33 ERA. The biggest issue contributing to the high ERA is the walk rate the bullpen is surrendering. Walking 5.47 batters per nine innings this season is last in the league by a large margin. This weakness plagued the unit against the Pirates when they walked an MLB record-tying seven consecutive batters.
What was once a great bullpen has turned completely around. Leads are no longer safe, and rally opportunities aren’t created.
Cincinnati Reds Always Have Stress in the Bullpen
Although a lot of the blame is on the bullpen, the starters haven’t been effective either. The first men out are repping a 20th-ranked 4.51 ERA. Besides Cy Young candidate Chase Burns, who has allowed two or fewer runs in 14 of his 17 starts this season, the first guy on the bump hasn’t shown much consistency. The walk rate remains an issue for the starters. Walking 3.84 batters per nine, ranking 26th in the league, it’s forcing the first man up to see more batters and throw more pitches. The Reds’ starters are throwing a fourth-worst 17.29 pitches per inning, and it’s forcing them to get pulled earlier than expected. This is forcing the relievers to be called on the second-most in all of baseball.
Cincinnati is in desperate need of its starters to last more than four or five innings, so the bullpen doesn’t have to be relied on. If they can find some consistency and longevity from their starters, success could begin to blossom among the arms of this staff.
Lack of Situational Hitting
Scoring runs has been an obstacle that this Reds team has been trying to overcome all season long. You would think a team that ranks 13th in total home runs this season at 107 wouldn’t have a problem bringing guys around the bases. The problem they are having is that when the ball leaves the yard, most of the time it’s only the one who hit it that is touching home.
With a total batting average that is second to last in baseball (.227), getting on base via the bat has been an offensive struggle. Even with the Reds being 7th in the MLB in walk percentage, when batters get on base, bringing them home has been a huge issue.
The Reds currently sit at dead last in all of MLB in batting average with runners in scoring position, with a .221 average. Even in situations where putting the ball in play would score a run, the Reds’ offense stalls. The ball club is striking out at a rate of 25%, the second highest in the majors. Hard to put the ball in play when you can’t make contact with it. This has contributed to 7.03 runners stranded per game this year.
Until this team finds a way to have success at situational hitting, it doesn’t matter how badly the pitchers are throwing when you can’t put runs on the scoreboard.
Reds’ Batting Lineup Inconsistencies
For most of the season, the lineup for this Reds team has been all over the place. Roster shuffling has had some players batting in different spots in the order. A common theme for their lineup is that players are batting constantly in different spots in the order. Trying to find consistency in the bats has been a challenge for manager Terry Francona. He has been trying out guys in different batting spots for a good chunk of the season.
This continues months after Francona mentioned he doesn’t play “lineup bingo,” but often posts different lineups each game. With injuries to key infielders and outfielders, positions need to be filled. This has led to players being put in positions they are not used to playing in the majors. Playing new positions can create new challenges for any player.
Reds Players Are Having to Play New Positions
In Sal Stewart‘s first full year in the big leagues, he has been moved to third base. Spending all his time in the minor leagues at first base, Stewart is finding a new home on the other side of the infield. Edwin Arroyo, a true shortstop called up in June, is being used a lot at second base. Not a huge change for these young infield talents, but learning anything new can take some time. A bigger shift for some players is going from the infield to the outfield.
Spencer Steer, Noelvi Marte, and Matt McLain have been asked to take on different roles. The newly converted outfielders are now being asked to track fly balls and make plays in a much larger area of the field. These plays might look routine for a full-time outfielder, but they are not as easy as they seem. Playing this many players out of position can take these guys out of their comfort zone and has led to some big mistakes on the defensive side.
Combining slumping pitching, struggling offense, and inconsistent defense is a recipe for disaster. The Reds’ hot start has quickly evaporated into a season to forget. With the wild card break fast approaching, playoff chances are slipping away. The Reds are currently seven games back from the final spot behind five teams. Still a long way to go in this 2026 campaign. If they want to change the outcome of this season, they will need a win streak.
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