It’s November 14th, 2024. The only NBA game is a faceoff between the 2-8 Utah Jazz and the 5-6 Dallas Mavericks.
Wait, the 5-6 Dallas Mavericks?
The same Mavericks that destroyed everything en route to their first NBA Finals in 13 years?
The same Mavericks that added sharpshooter Klay Thompson in the offseason, amongst other acquisitions?
Yes, those Dallas Mavericks are 5-6. By the end of the night, they would be 5-7, and on a night when they were the only show on the airwaves, all their problems were on display for the world to see.
It’s Not About How You Start… But Sometimes It Is
“It’s not about how you start, it’s how you finish“. While this tends to be true, this quote fails to realize one thing: how you start plays a vital role in how you finish. So how do the Mavericks tend to start?
Pretty badly.
Through their first 14 games, the Mavs have led after the 1st quarter in just five of them. In those games, they are 4-1. In the nine they’ve trailed in after quarter one, they are 3-6. Their meeting against the Houston Rockets was their biggest early-game exposure, as they trailed 34-21 after the first period, in large part due to plays like this:
Dallas looks asleep at the wheel here in transition, and PJ Washington completely disregards Dillon Brooks, leaving him wide open for three. Dereck Lively doesn’t offer much of a contest, and Brooks sinks it. After their horrendously slow start, the Mavericks would slowly storm back, but it would be in vain. Dallas ended up losing by six, 108-102, and their woeful start would end up being their downfall.
Now back to Utah. For a change, the Mavericks are up after one, 28-27. Only being up one point on a lowly Jazz team isn’t exactly something to write home about, but it’s a step in the right direction.
The same cannot be said for the Mavericks in the latter stages of the game.
It’s About How (Badly) They Finish
Now, if the Mavericks’ starts were an issue, then the way they finish games would be a DEFCON-1-level threat to the basketball world.
Clutch games in the NBA are described as a game within five points with five minutes left to go in the 4th quarter or overtime. How are the Mavericks fairing in such games this season? 2-6, good for a 33% winning percentage, the 4th worst mark in the NBA.
In the clutch, they also sport the 3rd worst defensive rating, the 2nd worst opponent fg%, and a net rating of -18.8, good for 25th in the league.
The stats only tell half the story, too.
Tale of the Tape
The tape also tells the story of a team that has struggled to finish games. Take this pass from Klay Thompson in his return to Golden State, for example:
Whether it’s a bad pass by Thompson or a drop by Daniel Gafford, it not only stopped Dallas from running down the clock, but it possibly stopped 2 points from going on the board. The Warriors scored their next time down, took the lead, and never looked back.
Now let’s jump forward in time before we head back to Salt Lake City, and showcase yet another errant pass in the clutch:
There are 40 seconds left in the game, and Naji Marshall doesn’t have to do much more other than dribble out the clock and at worst, get fouled and get put on the line. However, he opts to risk a pass to Dereck Lively and he throws it into the third row, giving the Thunder more life.
Even this tie-up Kyrie Irving found himself in later is another example of situational awareness the Mavericks just lacked in the clutch. No one came to take the ball from Kyrie after he picked his dribble up here:
Now, it’s time for the magnum opus. Let’s head back to Salt Lake City and set the stage. The Jazz led by seven with five minutes to go, but the Mavs whittled into the lead and ended up getting within one late. For once, it looked like Dallas would come through in the clutch.
Then, with 37 seconds to go, Luka Doncic falls for a pump fake. Despite Dereck Lively’s best efforts, it leads to an alley-opp dunk:
Klay Thompson would come down the other end and hit a three to tie the game at 113. The Mavericks have another chance to shut things down and go to overtime. How did it go?
Luka Doncic falls asleep at the wheel. Assistant coach Sean Sweeney sees John Collins wide open, but no Mavericks players do. Dereck Lively II is a step or two late to the punch. Collins gets an easy dunk, the Jazz take the lead, and do not relinquish it.
The Alarming Reality
With the whole world watching, the Dallas Mavericks once again failed to close out a game. Even as this is being written, the Mavericks’ last game saw them up 10 on a small-ball version of the Thunder with two minutes to go. They nearly blew that lead and only just hung on by two.
The Mavericks are talented from the top of the roster to the bottom. There’s a good mix of veteran presence and young talent. However, the biggest change is the new problems that have arisen. Last year, the Mavericks had the second-best winning percentage in clutch games. Their defensive rating was 9th in the league.
The complete 180 the Mavs have done is shocking, and if they want to have any shot of seeding high in the Western Conference, they’ll need to sort out these problems fast.
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