For just the second time, the New York Yankees will meet the Tampa Bay Rays in the playoffs. Coming off a decisive Wild Card victory against Boston, outscoring them 18-2 without Aaron Judge. The Yankees’ next hurdle will test whether their red-hot momentum can carry over as they look to dethrone the division champs.
Beating the Rays is no easy task; Tampa held the best record in the American League and the league’s best 55-26 at home. Tampa’s surprising dominance has been fueled by career years by many of its players. Led by Junior Caminero‘s MVP campaign, capped by 42 homers, Tampa has one of baseball’s most dangerous offenses.
Their mix of power, contact, and speed can drive a pitcher crazy. They have the league’s lowest strikeout rate and one of the highest BABIPs (Batting Average on Balls in Play). That’s why fans call the Trop the house of horrors: they will eat teams alive despite spending nearly a third of what big-market teams spend. They have figured out a winning formula that many others can’t solve.
This Division Series is a clash of styles. On one side, you have the high-funded and powerful Yankees with superstar talent versus the Rays’ tactically engineered lineup that can wear down any staff in the league. This is the Yankees’ biggest series yet, and the winner could very well win the pennant and play in the World Series.
Home Runs Win Series
In October, power reigns supreme. Last postseason, teams that hit more home runs than their opponents went 30-5. The Bronx Bombers need to mash from the start. Luckily, the Yankees have heavy hitters that give them the edge. As a team, they ranked second in home runs (223), a big contrast to the Rays, who lagged behind in 22nd with 169 homers.
After making quick work of the Red Sox, the Yankee offense needs to keep up its hot bats. In the two games against Boston, the Yankees hit .382 with a 1.009 OPS and four homers, leading the postseason rankings in all three. Ben Rice hit two of those four home runs and was the hero of Game 1. The breakout slugger has owned the Rays all year, hitting .356 with seven homers and a wRC+ of 257.
That matchup advantage isn’t limited to just one bat, either. The Yankees can stack their lefty sluggers this time around, as Tampa will presumably deploy all right-handers in the series.
Rays Manager Kevin Cash announced that Drew Rasmussen will toe the slab in Game 1. Followed by the crafty veteran Nick Martinez and Freddy Peralta, who has found his groove again. Though it’s a dominant three-man rotation, it lets the Yankees field their best players.
Beat Rays Aces Early
The Rays pitching staff is one of the very few that can go toe-to-toe with the Yankees. They thrive on the fact that each pitcher they use is unique. The staff includes the ace, Rasmussen, who will attack hitters vertically. Then their number two starter, Martinez, won’t overpower hitters but will embrace weak contact. Finally, Peralta has developed his fastball and off-speed combo as he pitched to a below one ERA in September.
When the Rays start their pair of aces in Rasmussen and Martinez, they make sure to win. In games they start, Tampa is 43-18. Rasmussen has owned the Yankees over his career, pitching to a 1.81 ERA in almost 60 innings. The Yankees’ slight edge is that they can put out a lineup of almost all lefties. Rasmussen gains a full run on his ERA when facing left-handed hitters.
The same story goes for Martinez, who has pitched well against New York this year. However, while the Rays prevailed at home, Martinez did not. In 15 home starts, he pitched to a 3.90 ERA, giving up 14 home runs. If the Yankees want to take a game on the road, they must keep these two from settling in.
Can’t Have Enough Starting Pitching
Echoing from the Yankees dynasty, former owner George Steinbrenner would repeat: you can’t have too much starting pitching. Equipped with that luxury, the Yankees find themselves in a good spot no matter who starts this series. Gerrit Cole will take the mound in Game 1, with Cam Schlittler starting Game 2.
While Schlittler and Cole will anchor the first two games, the Yankees’ key to beating the Rays will be their southpaw starters. The Rays’ splits against righties and lefties are drastic this season. Against righties, Tampa hits .263/.332/. 420, and their .751 OPS is the fourth-best against right-handed pitching. That OPS drops to the 25th-best against lefties, at .678.
The Yankees are slated to start their lefties in Games 3 and 4 with Max Fried and Carlos Rodon taking center stage. The matchup bodes well for Rodon, as he dominated the Rays in his last start against them, going eight shutout innings. All New York has to do is steal a road game and let their left-handed duo lock down the series at home.
Stop Tampa’s Right-Handed Hitters
This year’s Rays are a lot like the Blue Jays that eliminated the Yankees from the postseason. They trade power for contact, becoming one of the most difficult lineups to strike out. They pose gritty at-bats that make every pitch matter.
Stopping this offense from getting going starts with shutting down their top two bats, Caminero and Yandy Diaz. Thankfully, Caminero has played worse against New York than any other team he’s faced. In 23 games, the slugger has just a 47 OPS+ and three home runs versus the Yankees.
Diaz, the other big righty bat, sets the stage for Caminero in the Rays’ order. Diaz had a career year at 35, leading the AL with 180 hits. His almost .300 batting average this season hasn’t translated well to October. As the only Rays hitter with a postseason track record, he has hit to a grim .561 OPS in 26 games. While that could all change this year, the Yankees find themselves in a good spot facing the AL’s top seed.
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