When the head coach rolls the dice on fourth down, either a three or a six comes up.
“Are we taking the field goal, or are we extending the drive to go get a touchdown?”
That question has been asked multiple times over the course of the 2026 NFL Playoffs.
Let’s take a look at some of the fourth-down situations that playoff teams faced and analyze whether they should have taken the points or gone for touchdowns.
Note: the decision making is based on PRIOR to the fourth down play — not based on whether or not the team converted its fourth down attempt.
Wild Card Round — Jacksonville’s Fourth-and-2 versus Buffalo
On fourth-and-2 inside Buffalo’s 10-yard line, Jacksonville made the right call but didn’t execute.
They had a 7-3 advantage in the second quarter and had just recovered a kickoff fumble. With all the momentum on their side and facing a Fourth-and-2, Jaguars Head Coach Liam Coen rolled the dice.
Playing Josh Allen and a Buffalo Bills team that averaged 28.3 points per game in the regular season (fourth highest), Jacksonville needed to go for touchdowns.
In a game of inches, Trevor Lawrence was ruled short of the first down marker.
VERDICT: Go for it and live with the results
Divisional Round: Chicago’s Fourth-and-3 versus LA Rams
It’s Chicago’s opening drive and they had a Fourth-and-3 just outside the red zone.
This was a no-brainer decision. The Rams averaged just over 30 points per game in the regular season to lead the league. Chicago had to be aggressive and put seven on the board as opposed to taking the points.
While they didn’t convert, the outcome wasn’t the worst. Caleb Williams‘ fourth down interception deep in Rams’ territory put the Rams offense on its own 17-yard line.
VERDICT: Go for it and live with the results
AFCCG: Denver’s Fourth-and-1 versus New England
On Fourth-and-1 inside the red zone, Denver made the wrong call.
It was early in the second quarter and their defense had forced three straight punts. Even though it was fourth and a yard, they should have taken the points for a two possession lead.
It was clear early on (even before the impending snowstorm) that points would come at a premium.
Putting the ball in the hands of a backup QB, Jarrett Stidham, was unnecessarily rolling the dice.
VERDICT: Take the points
NFCCG: LA Rams’ Fourth-and-4 versus Seattle
On Fourth-and-4 on Seattle’s six-yard line, the Los Angeles Rams made the wrong call.
Down four, they had all three timeouts with under five minutes left to play. Fourth-and-4 is a more likely an obvious passing situation — so the run game is off the table.
The Rams had an opportunity to kick a chip shot field goal and cut the lead to one. Then, they could trust their defense to get Matthew Stafford the ball back with an opportunity to put the team in field goal range.
The only benefit to the Rams failing on their fourth -down attempt was that they pinned Seattle on their own six-yard line. But, at this point, field position is the least of Seattle’s worries — they just want to run out the clock with the lead.
VERDICT: Take the points
Wild Card Round: Carolina’s Fourth-and-4 vs LA Rams
On Fourth-and-4 right around midfield, Carolina made a bad call for two reasons:
- It’s only a three point game late in the third quarter
- Fourth-and-4 puts them in an obvious passing situation, giving the Rams an advantage
The result of this play was Bryce Young throwing an incomplete pass as he was flushed out of the pocket.
VERDICT: Kick it away and flip field position
Closing thoughts
If anything that these NFL playoffs have taught us it’s that hindsight is 20/20. We can argue which fourth down play should have been a kick as opposed to an offensive play being ran, based on time, score, situation and logic.
Sometimes, the best outcome on the roll of a dice is three, not six.
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