Who is This Year’s Donovan Mitchell?

Fast forward to April 2019. Bloggers everywhere have firmly fastened their hindsight goggles in an attempt to claim that they were certain that *insert breakout rookie* was the sleeper of the 2018 draft class. I have admittingly fallen into the same trap of hindsight bias, but my prediction of Kuzma’s astonishing rookie season was somewhat warranted by the excellent Summer League he had, as I wrote about here.

And although Summer League can be indicative of a rookie’s success, it is far from a tell-all beacon that infallibly illuminates favorable pro outcomes. With a miniature sample size and questionable competition and coaching scheme, judging a rookie solely on his productivity against G-leaguers and other rookies have proven to be erroneous time and time again.

So, how should one attempt the imperfect science of predicting rookie success? Some would argue a formulaic approach is the best method, but the analytical path is imperfect as you are still caught in the web of evaluating metrics against sub-NBA level talent. Instead, choose to look in the rear view at traits that have historically allowed rookies to succeed: opportunity and a tangible skill set. Opportunity alone is rarely enough, as an undeveloped skillset fails to deliver consistent play–regardless of how many minutes a player obtains. Players like Josh Jackson and Jonathan Isaac, for example, possessed the classic descriptions of “raw athleticism” and “potential” but failed to meet expectations and were quickly dubbed “projects” in order to provide hope for a fanbase to compensate for the lack of on-court production. Meanwhile, rooks like Kuzma entered situations where opportunity was abundant, and then used developed craft and indisputable talent to cement themselves as key pieces. It is at the crossroads of opportunity and tangible skills where rookie impact most often presents itself.

Note: In order for a player to be an eligible sleeper in my eyes, they have to be taken outside the top 10. As easy as it would be to prophesize strong rookie seasons for Jaren Jackson Jr. and Wendell Carter, the purpose of this piece is to deliver calculated predictions of players who seemingly slipped through the cracks, in the same way Donovan Mitchell and Kyle Kuzma did last year.

1: Mitchell Robinson, New York Knicks

After the 2nd ranked center in the nation left Western Kentucky before stepping foot on a collegiate court, pinpointing Robinson’s draft position became the equivalent of betting on a roulette game. But after sliding into the second round, Robinson put on a show at Summer League that sent a quake of regret through the majority of front offices. His 4 blocks per game in Summer League set a SL record, which becomes all the more impressive when considering he played just 24 minutes a game. Robinson also averaged an absurd 6.2 offensive rebounds per game, which also happens to be an all-time Summer League record. But even if you choose to take an array of record-breaking analytics like a grain of salt, the ability that Robinson possesses to move his feet and get off the ground swiftly as a 7 footer is a deadly combination. The clip below displays Mitchell’s uncanny ability to cover ground and generate bounce out nowhere; these qualities simply cannot be taught. With Porzingis sidelined to start the year to rehab his ACL injury and the Knicks looking for answers wherever they can find them, Robinson will have the opportunity to come in from day 1 and wreak havoc on the defensive end while finishing with Capela-esque efficiency on the offensive end.

2: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Los Angeles Clippers

When SGA decides he wants to go to the hoop, defenders can only watch in awe-inspired terror as Gilgeous-Alexander imitates an eel by slithering through the lane effortlessly. He possesses an uncanny ability to get to his spots at will, and ever-improving playmaking skills and a 7-foot wingspan allows him to distribute the ball once he inevitably gets in the lane.  Uniquely deceptive off the dribble, SGA is patient and methodical, often using a combo move or hesitation dribble to perfection. He is an elite finisher with either hand, and his footwork around the basket is extremely advanced for a one-and-done rookie. Despite a wide array of skills, though, SGA still has plenty of room for growth, especially shooting-wise–specifically on pull-up jumpers. In addition to shooting, it would be nice to see SGA add some weight to a 180 pound, freakishly long frame. Nonetheless, he has all the tools necessary to possibly become the best guard in his class.

3: Grayson Allen, Utah Jazz

Recent history has shown us that senior collegiate guards who excelled from behind the arc in college tend to have an immediate impact on teams. Josh Hart was able to gain a sizable role for the Lakers last year, shooting nearly 40 percent from three and starting nearly a quarter of the season. Similarly, 2017 ROY Malcolm Brogdon made major contributions to a Bucks team in dire need of three-point shooting after hitting 40.4% of his triples in his rookie campaign. The trend was also illuminated by Buddy Hield in 2016-17, averaging over 15 points a game with a 42.8% mark from behind the arc. As a career 38%  three-point shooter at Duke, Grayson checks all the boxes that coincide with rookie impact. With a roster as deep as the Jazz’s, the only question is if Allen will get the opportunity to carve out a role in Utah.

Oh, and don’t sleep on Grayson’s athletic ability:

4: De’Anthony Melton, Phoenix Suns

Melton had already cemented himself on this list pre-trade, but his potential becomes all the more alluring now that he enters a Phoenix team handing out playing time to anyone who steps foot in the locker room. I hate throwing around the “Swiss Army Knife” aphorism, but Melton’s versatility in every facet of the game cannot be overstated. In his freshman season at USC, Melton put up 40-minute averages of 12.3 points, 5.1 assists, 7.0 rebounds, 2.8 steals, and 1.5 blocks. He offers all the attributes associated with a hard-nosed guard: NBA ready build, physical on-ball defense, and assimilating a bull charging to the rim. The biggest question he faced in the pre-draft process was his three-point shot, but his shooting performance in Summer League all but silenced these doubts. Sure, SL is a small and uncertain sample size, but Melton showed solid progress from behind the arc, hitting multiple 3s in 4 out of 5 games and nailing 5 of them against the Clippers.

The Swiss Army Knife metaphor I used earlier is on perfect display here. Not only is Melton quick and shifty enough to beat multiple defenders and contort his body to finish a tough look at the rim, he also has the presence of mind and desire to steal the inbound pass. (ignore the airballed three at the end of the clip)

https://twitter.com/HoustonRockets/status/1018243923804909568