Nothing screams baseball like home runs. Whether it’s a walk-off shot in the bottom of the ninth or a leadoff homer setting the tone, everybody stops what they’re doing when that crack echoes around the ballpark.
For one night a year, there’s an event that purely focuses on swinging out of your shoes and hitting balls as far as possible: the prodigious Home Run Derby. Every July before the All-Star Game, eight participants take center stage and go homer-for-homer to determine the superior slugger.
This year’s contest holds a unique mix of swingers with a new format for the first time in 11 years. Residing in the infamous home of Red October, Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia will host the anticipation on Monday night.
A Timeless Derby
In 2015, Major League Baseball made the switch from an outs-based format in the derby to a time-based one. Instead of a set number of outs (non-home runs) the hitter gets before their round is over, there was a two-minute timer, resulting in frantic, explosive races.
But now, the clock is ditched, and the outs return. Starting in 2026, each participant gets 20 swings in the opening round to hit as many home runs as they can. But if a player hits a homer on their final swing of the round, they can keep swinging until they do not hit one over the fence.
All eight batters will take their 20 swings in Round 1, and the four with the most homers will advance to Round 2. The farthest single home run distance determines any tiebreakers in the first round.
Then in Round 2, the four remaining swingers go head-to-head for the Finals. The player with the most from Round 1 faces the fourth-most, and the second- and third-most battle. The two winners will advance to the Finals and play for the $1 million prize. Each turn in the final two rounds gets 15 swings, and tiebreakers are decided via a three-swing swing-off.
With the new unhurried format in place, let’s meet the field.
Phillies’ Hometown Heroes
A pair of active legends who are in Philadelphia’s all-time top 10 list of slugging percentage are stepping into the batter’s box. Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber will both represent the Phillies on Monday night, in the comfort of their home ballpark.
Schwarber, at age 33 and the favorite of the derby, has hit the most home runs of anyone in 2026. His 32 leads baseball and is currently three more than any other competitor. Schwarber has been nearly flawless in everything it takes to hit a home run this year, from exit velocity to barrel percentage.
Harper has been hitting home runs since coming out of the womb. Since making this immensely anticipated debut as a 19-year-old in 2012, Harper has brought power at every stage of his career and is seeking his second Home Run Derby title. He has hit 20 bombs so far, tied for the second-fewest of the field but still superb for the future Hall of Famer.
Who Are the New Kids on the Block?
Schwarber and Harper’s veteran spirit is quickly outmatched by youthful energy. There are three contestants under the age of 25 seeking to disrupt the status quo.
Tampa Bay Rays’ star Junior Caminero returns for the second year in a row, looking to avenge his runner-up performance. Caminero made it all the way to the Finals as a 22-year-old before losing to last season’s home run king, Cal Raleigh.
Jordan Walker also enters as the most unexpected participant of 2026. The St. Louis Cardinal has had a breakout year with 22 home runs and a league-leading 74 RBIs. Walker’s been thrust into MLB relevance this year, and it’ll be interesting to see how he handles his opening tour.
Lastly, the Kansas City Royals’ Bobby Witt Jr.-counterpart digs in as the sole true underdog. Jac Caglianone, 23, will participate in the first derby of his young career. He debuted last season as the club’s highest-rated prospect, but is just now growing into his shoes as a major leaguer. Caglianone has 15 home runs in 2026.
Rounding out the Field
While the young studs have their sights set on disrupting, the final three batters have real shots of winning.
When home runs and the New York Yankees are in the same sentence, Aaron Judge promptly follows. But a new name might take that over soon. Ben Rice has the second-most home runs among the competitors, with 29, and has been one of the best hitters all year. He has the second-highest SLG and the fourth-highest OPS in the league.
Boston’s Wilson Contreras joins as the oldest participant, playing in his first-ever Home Run Derby 11 seasons into his career. Contreras has supplied power to the Red Sox’s underwhelming lineup, leading the team in homers while being well on pace to set a career high in them.
The last participant was announced abnormally close to the derby, leaving fans wondering who the eighth batter would be. It turns out the league was waiting for its newest overseas superstar, Munetaka Murakami, to return from the IL.
Murakami hit 20 home runs in his first 55 career games before injuring his hamstring. He is still in the upper echelon of home run totals in 2026, having played only half the season.
So, Who Will Win the 2026 Home Run Derby?
The new format for 2026 reshapes the way we predict a winner. It’s no longer based around endurance, but pure individual hitting.
Taking out the clock and only swinging at select pitches leans in favor of a vet. They’ve been around the longest and have the best view of the strike zone, given their fundamental experience.
That said, some young sluggers have been the hottest as of late. Caminero is a solid pick, already having Derby experience and coming off hitting 11 homers in 11 games through the beginning of July.
Rice has been doing it all year, with his offense expanding outside just hitting home runs. Everything about his swing in 2026 has excelled, plus his lefty pull-side tendencies at Citizens Bank Park’s shallower right-field will fall in his favor.
Then, there’s the ringleader. It’s in the stars that Schwarber wins his first-ever derby at the height of his power, back home in Philly. But he will have strong competition, potentially the most from his teammate.
The 2026 Home Run Derby will begin at 8 pm ET and will stream on Netflix.
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