Since starting the season 24-1, the Oklahoma City Thunder have gone 2-4, with three of those losses coming at the hands of the San Antonio Spurs.
Just six games ago, the Thunder looked to be on pace for the best regular season in NBA history. Since then, their weaknesses have been on full display against the Spurs — specifically their spotty shooting, lack of rim pressure, and inconsistent half-court offense.
San Antonio is the perfect matchup against the Thunder because of their pristine athleticism, depth, and, of course, Victor Wembanyama.
OKC’s Glaring Weaknesses
Inconsistent Shooting
In the three Spurs losses, the Thunder are shooting 28.8% from three. OKC has had plenty of good opportunities, with many misses coming from open shots or hesitation on jumpers.
Of course, in a three-game regular season sample, this number is not a rest-of-season indicator, but it is nevertheless a substantial reason for their losses.
Many of their strong shooters have struggled from deep in this regular season series, such as Alex Caruso (17.6%), Chet Holmgren (25%), and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (17.6%). Many of Caruso and Homgren’s misses have come from open looks, like when Caruso went 2-for-12 from three on their Christmas Day matchup.
This poor shooting could always change in their remaining two regular-season matchups or a potential playoff series. Still, their other offensive weaknesses could continue to drag down their three-point percentages.
Lack of Ball Handlers and Drivers
A key reason OKC has struggled from three is that they are forced to settle for those shots due to their lack of creators.
Ajay Mitchell, who has missed their past two matchups, SGA, and Jalen Williams are the only reliable drivers and ball handlers on the Thunder. SGA and J-Dub are both top-10 in drives per game, with Mitchell ranking eleventh among players playing less than 30 minutes per game.
Their drives force the defense to collapse, leaving their shooters open or getting OKC easy looks at the free throw line. The Thunder’s lack of rim pressure has left them completely outmatched in free-throw differential, with the Spurs tallying 18 more free throws (77–59) in the season series.
With drivers absent from the court when SGA is off, there is constant settling for jumpers. Most of their players are unable to create better shots inside the arc.
Half-Court Issues With SGA On the Bench
With SGA on the bench, the half-court offense isn’t at a championship standard. Jalen Williams’ slow start since his return from injury has been detrimental to their play; he has the 16th-lowest true-shooting percentage among players averaging 25+ minutes per game (53.1%). He is also having a career-worst season finishing at the rim (62%) and from three (36%).
His inability this year to steady the offense in SGA’s absence has put more pressure on Mitchell to become a pick-and-roll playmaker and a primary shot creator. With Gilgeous-Alexander off the court and J-Dub on, OKC’s offensive rating goes from 123.2 to 112 (via databallr.com).
Having only played 12 games since his wrist injury, it’s likely J-Dub is getting back into the swing of things on offense, and given time, will return to his All-Star form.
Since last season, OKC has stayed afloat in the MVP’s absence because of their outstanding transition play and ability to force turnovers. The Spurs have erased many of these easy scoring opportunities for the Thunder.
The Thunder are first in points per possession on transition (1.26), second in steals per game (10.4), and first in forced turnovers per game (17.8). Against the Spurs, they have only forced 13.7 turnovers per game. This decrease in transition opportunities has forced fewer easy scoring chances and a heavier reliance on half-court offense.
San Antonio’s Solutions Against OKC
Exceeding the Thunder’s Athleticism
A key reason for OKC’s dominance is their supreme athleticism — they can switch anyone, have unlimited stamina, and have blazing fast closeouts. Against the Spurs, their athleticism is significantly hindered by the Spurs’ strength, length, and speed.
San Antonio’s star guard trio of De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper has been a nightmare for OKC. Fox has incredible speed, Castle uses brute strength, and all of them have phenomenal change of pace and deceleration to get themselves to the paint at will.
Even the Spurs’ role players like Keldon Johnson and Harrison Barnes have enough strength to cause problems for the Thunder. All of their athleticism, especially strength, leaves Chet Holmgren at a disadvantage in the paint.
Depth That Rivals Anyone in the NBA
San Antonio has had excellent depth this year; they have great scorers, such as Devin Vassell and Johnson, and they have solid complementary pieces in Luke Kornet and Barnes.
Their depth allows the stars to have less pressure on both ends of the court, and their next-man-up mentality is a critical reason for their 9-3 record without Wembanyama this season.
Wembanyama’s Gravity
Despite his limited playing time against OKC, Wemby’s impact has been surreal. Although Wemby is only averaging one block per game in the three Thunder matchups, his defensive gravity has been unmatched. His defensive presence has been a primary reason why the Thunder have settled for so many jump shots.
On the offensive end, OKC tries to throw everybody at Wemby, mostly Alex Caruso. With Caruso unable to defend one of the Spurs’ star guards, they can get to the paint at will. Since Wembanyama typically has the ball outside the paint, it forces the Thunder’s big man to hedge for help, giving the Spurs easy opportunities around the rim and offensive rebound chances.
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When Wemby returns to his usual workload, San Antonio will seem nearly unbeatable.
Are the Spurs the Best in the West?
After three convincing wins over the reigning champs, it’s hard to deny how great the Spurs are. Their depth and star power have exceeded everyone’s expectations.
Until OKC shows a significant bounce back from this losing skid, San Antonio should be treated as serious title contenders and the best team in the Western Conference.
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