Most sports articles contain a positive tone. They often highlight successes, both past and potential. They tend to convey optimism, highlighting why “this is the year” for a player or a team. This article, however, will be the exact opposite.
It has been a frustrating off-season for Nuggets fans. Their cap situation has prevented them from making much-needed changes to the roster. Tim Hardaway Jr. walked, Peyton Watson could be on the way out, and Denver’s only new signings have been underwhelming veterans and a Euro-Leaguer. Naturally, finding ways to positively spin their situation has become challenging.
So today, it’s time to steer into the skid and look at how the Nuggets’ season could pan out if all goes wrong.
The Nuggets Let Peyton Watson Go
The biggest story of the offseason for Denver has been about what they will do with Peyton Watson.
The Nuggets are eager to bring him back, but they cannot do so without entering the second apron. Naturally, this sparked trade rumors regarding Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson, Jamal Murray, and just about everybody on the roster outside of Jokic.
As of now, Denver has offered Watson a five-year, $70 million contract, which equates to $15 million a year. Watson, however, has been rumored to want more, with expectations being closer to the $25 million a year range.
Several other teams, including the Milwaukee Bucks, Atlanta Hawks, and Los Angeles Clippers, have also expressed interest. Rumors of a possible sign-and-trade have been swirling. However, none have been willing to meet the Nuggets’ demands of a high-end player and a first-round pick.
The Nuggets have no leverage in this situation. If they agree to Watson’s salary demands, they will be up to their eyeballs in luxury taxes. However, if they refuse to act, Watson could either walk for nothing or sign a qualifying deal and do the same next offseason. His suitors smell blood in the water, as they will continue to force Denver to lower their asking price.
This situation could go in many different directions. But for next season’s worst case, the Nuggets could get squeezed so hard that they are forced to sign-and-trade Watson for a role player and a pair of second-round picks.
Braun and Johnson Continue to Struggle
Without Watson, Denver will be entering the season with very little depth. Their starting lineup will remain the same, but outside of Spencer Jones, their bench will be leaving much to be desired. Tyus Jones, Julian Strawther, and Marvin Bagley could all be playing substantial minutes, which is a far cry from their depth in years past.
Nevertheless, the starting lineup still looks solid on paper. Braun and Johnson both had down years, but they could certainly bounce back.
Unless, of course, they don’t. In this imperfect world, Braun never regains his offensive confidence. He continues to shoot a mere 30% from three, struggles finishing at the rim, and lacks the defensive fire that he once had. As for Johnson, he fails to carry over his momentum from late last season. He cannot create his own shot, nor can he match Watson’s athleticism and intensity on defense.
Both players’ names were swirling in trade rumors all offseason. Now it’s August, and they remain on the roster. Clearly, the front office has decided that their best option is to run back the starting lineup and hope that last season was an anomaly for them.
Braun and Johnson, though, could prove them dead wrong. Braun could solidify his contract as the worst in the league while Johnson could have fans yearning for the return of Michael Porter Jr.
Nevertheless, without Watson, and with Johnson and Braun failing to produce on either side of the ball, Denver will experience a hard fall in the standings.
Denver’s Brightest Stars Stop Shining
Last season, Jamal Murray had a career year amidst a revolving door of teammate injuries, averaging 26 points per game in his first-ever All-Star season. Say, however, that last season was an outlier. This year, Murray returns to 20 points a game and possibly misses time with a knee or ankle issue, which have hindered him in years past.
As for Aaron Gordon, he has proved to be a tremendous asset when healthy. However, Gordon has now missed time in back-to-back years in the playoffs, which was a huge catalyst in their losses. He also missed over 40 games this year dealing with hamstring and calf issues. Injuries could certainly continue to bother him this year, which will force the Nuggets to drop even further.
The Nuggets Face a Nightmare Playoff Matchup
Even in a perfect season, the Nuggets still fall short to the Thunder, Spurs, and likely the Timberwolves.
Now, with key pieces missing, struggling, or being injured, they could tumble even further. Teams like the Lakers and Rockets could easily jump them. One impressive season from a team like the Trail Blazers, Suns, or another Western Conference bottom dweller and the Nuggets could be in the play-in for the first time in franchise history.
Even if they win in the play-in, their reward would be a matchup against Oklahoma City or San Antonio. Neither would bode well for Denver.
In truth, the Nuggets’ season likely won’t turn out this badly. There’s a solid chance they keep Watson (at least for the year) or flip him into a valuable player and/or a first-rounder. The odds of Braun and Johnson both being under 13 points a game feel very unlikely. As for Murray and Gordon, betting on injuries is never a sure thing, and Murray should be able to build on his career season.
Success is seldom guaranteed in the NBA, and disaster could strike any team at any moment. The Nuggets should remain competitive next season, but they could also be a few bad breaks away from their worst year in the Jokic era.
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