During the 2019-2020 regular season, the Miami Heat were one of only two teams to beat the Milwaukee Bucks multiple times. Returning from a week of rest, Miami will have an advantage in that aspect as the Bucks just finished their series with Orlando two days ago. The Heat will have no small task in trying to upset the Defensive Player of the Year — and likely two-time MVP — Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has maintained his two-way prowess. Here’s what Miami will need to do to upset the East’s top seed.
1. Contain the All-Stars
Bam Adebayo’s matchup with Giannis is vital to a Heat series win. In Miami’s second win over Milwaukee, Bam helped hold Giannis to a then season-low 13 points — his new low became 12 earlier this month during a second-quarter ejection against Washington — on 6-of-18 shooting. Nonetheless, Giannis followed up with games of 33 and 21 against the Heat. It is clear that there are two outcomes; he explodes, or he is contained. In order for Giannis to be contained, Bam needs to stay out of foul trouble, as he dealt with said trouble earlier this month and could not play the majority of the fourth quarter in their last meeting. Not many players in this league can contain Giannis, but if anybody can, it is Bam Adebayo.
Khris Middleton is the Bucks’ second all-star. Middleton averaged 20.9 points per game this season, but was rather inconsistent against Orlando, shooting just 36% from the field in their gentleman’s sweep. Regardless of his mini slump, he is known as one of the most efficient players in the NBA. Four-time all-defender Jimmy Butler is surely up to the assignment of guarding Middleton, however, as their only matchup of the year ended with Middleton scoring 12 points on 4-of-16 shooting in a Miami blowout.
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2. Get your free throws, Jimmy!
Jimmy Butler excels at getting to the free throw line, and nearly half of his points (35/79) against the Pacers were from the stripe. Butler shot 40 free throws in three games against the Pacers. This allowed Jimmy to control the game by obtaining easy points. In order for the Heat to compete with someone like Giannis, Jimmy must attempt 10+ free throws a game. The Bucks, anchored by Giannis and Brook Lopez, are very good at protecting the paint. If Jimmy can get these two in foul trouble, much more will open up for the Heat and the end result will almost certainly be better. The less Giannis and Brook Lopez on the floor, the better.
3. Elite Perimeter Shooting
It’s no secret the Heat are extremely dependent on the three-point shot. 41% of Miami’s regular-season shots stemmed from beyond the arc, converting on an above-average 37.9% of them. The obvious shooters — Duncan Robinson, Tyler Herro, Goran Dragic — are expected to hit theirs, but the Heat will need additional contribution from the lesser-known shooters of Jae Crowder, Kelly Olynyk and Andre Iguodala.
Crowder began to come into his own shooting groove against the Pacers, making two in each game. Olynyk has made 18 threes over 12 Bubble games. Iguodala isn’t known as a shooter, but he was able to connect from deep in three games last series. We know these guys can knock down the shot, but they will need to do so effectively.
Against the Pacers, the Heat averaged 33.3 three-point attempts per game, making 13 on average. A consistent shooting performance like this needs to repeat for Miami to secure a series win. The Bucks have arguably two All-NBA Defensive team members that protect their paint. Hitting shots from outside the arc will be a must if the Heat want to take down the East’s favorites.
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