The NFL’s coaching carousel is a bottomless well of drama and disappointment. Every so often, a team finds its gem — Mike MacDonald, Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay (hey Cardinals, fans are looking at you to round out the division of death).
But more often than not these days, a coach flames out after two or three years. Currently, 15 of the 32 head coaches are hires from either the 2026 or 2025 cycles.
This season should continue the trend. Given the parity across the league, particularly in the AFC, and the everyday fan’s insatiable desire for success and hope, there are sure to be a new crop of coaches fired before the NFL crowns a winner of Super Bowl LXI.
Here are the eight coaches most likely to be fired next.
Honorable Mention: Dan Campbell
Campbell’s early success has put some lofty expectations on the Lions that they have failed to fulfill as of late. However, given Campbell’s character, where the Lions started before he arrived, and the fact that they have the easiest schedule in the NFL this season, he should be safe.
Head Coaches Who Will Probably Survive This Season
8. Dave Canales
Dave Canales was supposed to be doing in Carolina what Liam Coen is doing in Jacksonville. Part of the Buccaneers branch, the league saw Canales as a “QB whisperer” after he fixed Baker Mayfield in 2023. His encore was to fix the diminutive Bryce Young.
Canales is eighth on this list because Young’s trajectory is moving upwards, and because the Panthers almost beat the Rams in the playoffs last year.
But there’s an embarrassment tax in the NFC South. Finish last in such a meager division, and do so at the behest of Young flaming out, and the Panthers won’t hesitate to show Canales the door.
7. Kevin O’Connell
O’Connell won the 2024 Coach of the Year award for his job resurrecting Sam Darnold. However, we learned in 2025 that Darnold may not have needed salvation as much as previously thought.
The Vikings’ struggles are more the fault of their previous GM, Kwefi Adofo-Mensah, who has put together terrible draft classes and, most recently, let Darnold walk to give J.J. McCarthy his opportunity, which has been an objective failure so far.
But O’Connell is not without blame himself. If this season spirals for the Vikings, Minnesota may need to start things over. Kyler Murray may be his last hope.
6. Mike McCarthy
One-and-done head coaches are rare, but if there was one thing Pete Carroll taught us last year (and there probably only is one), it’s that they’re still possible.
If any newly-hired head coach is going to get the boot after just one season, it would be Mike McCarthy. His hiring is what convinced Aaron Rodgers to play for a final season, per Rodgers himself. Steelers management may have had other reasons for hiring McCarthy, but that sticks out as the main one.
McCarthy’s experience is the fast acting glue holding the Steelers’ operation together. If everything falls apart, Pittsburgh should start from scratch and find a young, up-and-coming coach to replace him.
5. Matt LaFleur
What is stagnation if not Matt LaFleur? Since LaFleur was hired in 2019, the Packers have made the playoffs six of a possible seven times. Yet, they’re 3-6 in playoff games and haven’t made an NFC Championship. Green Bay finished as the No. 7 seed in each of the past three seasons, with only one road win to show for it.
The Packers are just the Steelers of the NFC. Micah Parsons’ injury was truly unfortunate. Even so, with him on the roster and Jordan Love in his prime, if LaFleur doesn’t either win the NFC North or make it to the NFC Championship, the Packers need to turn elsewhere next season.
Midseason Firing Candidates
4. Zac Taylor
Zac Taylor is the Yin to LaFleur’s Yang. The Bengals made it to the Super Bowl in 2022 and the AFC Championship in 2023. But those are the only two postseason appearances Cincinnati has made in Taylor’s seven seasons as head coach.
Taylor has run out of injury excuses. Even when Joe Burrow played all 17 games in 2024 and led the NFL in passing yards and completions, the team went 9-8 and missed the playoffs; they have no reason to move on from him. Even though the biggest culprit for failure will likely be the team’s offensive line, the Bengals have to produce this year, or they’ll show Taylor the door.
3. Dan Quinn
Dan Quinn is a defensive-minded head coach whose defense sucked last season. Not only did the unit further Washington’s streak of consecutive seasons without a defensive shutout to a staggering 34, but they also allowed the most yards per game in the NFL last season.
But the problems for the Commanders don’t end with the defense. Their offensive line took a massive hit with Laremy Tunsil’s potentially-season-ending injury, which does not bode well for the prospect of keeping Jayden Daniels healthy and productive. Washington’s magical 2024 run has gotten Quinn this far, but the team’s pile of problems might get out of hand this season, causing the Commanders to seek a reset at the helm.
2. Aaron Glenn
The reason Glenn doesn’t rank first on this list is because he set the Jets’ expectations as low as he possibly could last season.
For a former defensive coordinator to come in as a head coach, draft a cornerback (Azareye’h Thomas, third round) and safety (Malachi Moore, fourth), sign two more cornerbacks (Brandon Stephens, Kris Boyd) and a safety (Andre Cisco) and STILL go an entire season without his team recording an interception, something that had never been done before in NFL history, is baffling.
Even if the Jets improve dramatically from last season to this one, they still might fire Glenn. However, since a four-win season would be technically turning the team in the right direction, he has some wiggle room to survive 2026.
1. Todd Bowles
Yet another defensive-minded head coach whose defense sucks, Bowles has ridden the coattails of Baker Mayfield and his offensive coordinators for years now.
The Buccaneers have finished each of the past three seasons 18th in defensive EPA, per NFL analyst Warren Sharp. Last season they dealt with some injuries on offense, which is what caused their second-half collapse. The defense was mostly intact, yet allowed the league-worst red-zone touchdown rate, and only tallied 37 sacks, the team’s fewest since 2017 (Sharp).
The Buccaneers are trending in the wrong direction, and Bowles is the most-prime candidate to be the first coach fired if things unravel quickly.
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