There’s theoretically only so much a single player can do to determine an entire franchise’s success — especially in baseball.
Basketball’s more standoffish about this concept, with only 10 players on the court at once and five for each team. Even allowing just 15 active players on a National Basketball Association roster, a single player can more directly impact the longevity of a team.
Major League Baseball allows 26 of 40 signed men on an active roster at once. Thirteen pitchers, 13 hitters and hundreds of aspiring ball players throughout the minor league system, all playing under one logo. So, truly, how much can one player impact an entire organization in baseball?
Starting pitcher Tarik Skubal has had that impact for the Detroit Tigers. Skubal’s consecutive American League Cy Young awards thrust the Tigers into the postseason, making 2024 the first time in a decade.
He’s been regarded as the best, if not the second-best, pitcher alive for the last three years. And yet, the Tigers trading him is looking more and more realistic as the 2026 season progresses.
The Ace in a Shuffle
There’s been a glaring narrative following Skubal ever since he exited the mound during Game 5 of last year’s ALDS. The back-to-back Cy Young winner was entering a free agency walk year in 2026 with the team he debuted with six seasons ago.
When a rookie debuts and is here to stay, their team is merited for six years of control. The first three years are a set paycheck near the league’s ever-changing league minimum salary. Then the final three years are of arbitration control, during which the player and team can negotiate a salary each year.
Last February, Skubal won his nationally-followed arbitration hearing for a record-breaking $32 million, the most given to a pitcher through arbitration ever. That said, his upcoming free agent contract this winter could cross 10 times that mark.
That’s a price that the Detroit Tigers cannot afford. The largest contract ever given out by Detroit was Miguel Cabrera’s $284 million extension in 2014. The idea of a multi-hundred-million-dollar extension for Skubal to return to the Tigers is simply off the table, with the ace saying himself that there won’t be an offer until the end of the season.
Detroit is electing to wait until Skubal can meet with all 29 other MLB teams to see who will fight for him. In a market that’s seen two $700 million-plus contracts in the last four years, it’s plainly unrealistic for Detroit to compete with the truly rich teams. So, shouldn’t they try to get something back for him while they even have the chance?
The Dwindling Tigers
Skubal went down with an elbow injury at the end of April and has been sidelined since. After undergoing a minimal surgery, he made his first rehab start in single-A on Sunday, throwing five scoreless innings. Since his injury, outside of an unexpected sweep of the surging Tampa Bay Rays, the Tigers have gone 7-22 and fallen nine games back in the AL Central.
The Detroit faithful witnessed what it’s like to have a Skubal-less roster, with a continually underwhelming offense and flat pitching. If the Tigers hadn’t slipped so dramatically in May, a deal would be far less probable.
The Tigers are hoping Sunday’s start was his first and final rehab stop before returning. That puts a potential arrival circled on the calendar as June 12-14 for an intra-division series in Cleveland.
That rough timetable gives Detroit roughly seven weeks to figure out one of the most important decisions in recent franchise history.
Potential Suitors for Tarik Skubal
If the Tigers continue down this negative path, it is nonsensical not to sell on Aug 3. By pulling off this trade correctly, Detroit could set up its franchise for the next decade.
Skubal’s free agency makes him the most valuable loaner since Juan Soto in 2022 and pitcher since Max Scherzer in 2021. It could also influence fewer high-market teams to pursue, leaving this potential mid-season market more open than usual. That said, there are still recognizable big-name clubs with the most assets to acquire Skubal, making those destinations the most practical.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Don’t shoot the messenger. If the last 10 years have told us anything about player movement, one way or another, Skubal to the Dodgers feels unavoidable. On top of Los Angeles’ all-star $300 million roster, they also have the second-best-ranked farm system in baseball, leaving them with prospects to give. LA does not need another starting pitcher. Yet they have the pockets and environment to acquire Skubal, whether in August or later this winter.
2. New York Mets
This Queens ball club absolutely cannot miss the postseason in 2026. After a slow and painful collapse last year, which cost them the playoffs on the last day of the season, the Mets are undergoing a full roster turnover, which could be completed by acquiring Skubal. Trading for the ace could potentially push the Mets over the hump as they sit five games back of a Wild Card spot as of June 9.
3. Chicago Cubs
Distant from the Dodgers, the Cubs feel a starting pitcher shy of being a dangerously-close-to-complete team. This move could perfectly benefit them as well, since they won’t dip $300 million into the checkbook this winter. The Cubs’ minor league system has weakened over the last couple of years, but it could still provide the right package to complete their roster.
4. Toronto Blue Jays
It feels like Toronto has flirted with every major free agent over the last couple of years but keeps coming up short. Speaking of coming up short, the Blue Jays were inches short of winning last year’s World Series in seven games. Although they’ve disappointed so far this season, everyone knows this club’s true potential, and Skubal atop that rotation could give them another shot.
5. Contending Dark Horses
While those four teams might be the most realistic, there’s a fair chance some under-the-radar teams swoop in as well. Clubs like the Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays or Arizona Diamondbacks should all be monitored very closely when the time comes. All three teams could turn from scrappy groups into contenders via Skubal and will be in a position to go all in and pounce.
With all of this being said, the Detroit Tigers still have time to turn it around and utilize Skubal for another World Series push in a wide-open American League. But if they continue down this path and find themselves 10 games back on Aug. 3, expect Skubal’s name attached to every trade deadline rumor this summer.
Leave a comment