Which NL Teams are Exceeding Expectations at the Midway Point?

The 2026 Major League Baseball regular season is now officially past the halfway point.

The National League is highly competitive this year, and while teams such as the Dodgers and Cubs are performing as expected, some teams have burst onto the scene, far exceeding expectations and making the league even more competitive.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are Close to Finding Gold

The Pittsburgh Pirates entered July 2025 with a 37-50 record. The team severely lacked a solid offense, ranking 27th in the league in batting average (.230), 6th in strikeouts (845), and 29th in OPS (.639). Furthermore, their pitching, with the exception of Paul Skenes, struggled throughout the season.

However, the situation has shifted in the 2026 season. Although the Pirates currently rank fourth in their division, they hold a 44-44 record. This significant improvement results from comprehensive changes implemented across both offense and defense.

A primary factor in the Pirates’ 2026 performance is their substantial improvement at the plate. Pittsburgh currently maintains a .260 batting average, ranking third in Major League Baseball and representing a 29-point increase from the previous season. Additionally, the Pirates have raised their OPS by 105 points, achieving a league-second-best .759.

While overall hitting has improved, several players have demonstrated exceptional progress, positioning Pittsburgh for a potentially historic offensive season. Nick Gonzales is batting .305, a 45-point increase from the previous year, along with a 61-point rise in his on-base to .360. Additionally, Bryan Reynolds has increased his batting average by 35 points to .280 and his on-base percentage by 77 points to .395.

The Pirates have further demonstrated a marked increase in power hitting. Brandon Lowe leads the team with 20 home runs, which is remarkable considering Oneil Cruz led the team in that department last season with the same number. Cruz himself is already at 14 blasts before the All-Star break, and five players have reached double-digit home runs, matching the threshold from last season.

The Pirates now face the challenge of replicating their offensive improvements on defense. Skenes was widely expected to maintain his dominant performance this season. Despite a few recent struggles, he has a 3.62 ERA.

The pitching staff as a whole continues to struggle. The team’s ERA is 4.24, a slight decline from last year’s 3.76. Furthermore, their defense has been subpar, ranking fourth in errors committed per game.

The Pirates are clearly showing significant progress. Their offense has been highly effective, and they approach the midpoint of the season with a competitive record. If the team can improve its pitching in the second half, a postseason appearance for the first time since 2015 becomes a realistic possibility.

The Atlanta Braves’ Hot Start Offered a Needed Cushion

The Atlanta Braves have experienced a wide range of outcomes this year. Following a disappointing 2025 season, the team began the 2026 campaign with significant momentum. At one point, the Braves led the NL East by 10.5 games, prompting speculation about their potential postseason success.

Although the Braves continue to lead the division, their performance declined significantly in June, as they went 9-13. The team’s lead over the Philadelphia Phillies has narrowed to 2.5 games. During this stretch, the Braves had a .234 batting average and a team ERA of 4.09.

Nevertheless, the Braves have significantly exceeded preseason expectations for 2026. At the All-Star break last year, the team held a 42-53 record and ranked fourth in the division. Combining their lead in the power rankings for a portion of the season with maintaining the division lead has been encouraging to players, fans and first-year manager Walt Weiss.

The Braves have improved at the plate in 2026, currently holding a .246 batting average. Established players continue to meet expectations, as Atlanta produced five All-Star starter finalists including Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, and Ronald Acuna Jr.

However, several breakout performers have played a critical role in the team’s success. Drake Baldwin has produced at the plate for Atlanta this season, posting a .255 batting average and a .338 on-base percentage. Michael Harris II has maintained a high level of play as well. Known for his streaky seasons, Harris has been steady, hitting .293, a 94-point jump over last season.

On the mound, Chris Sale has continued to provide leadership. Following the extended absence of Spencer Strider, Atlanta has leaned on its entire rotation. Despite challenges in June, the team has the third-best ERA in Major League Baseball at 3.49 and the third-lowest opponent batting average at .226. 

Although the Braves stumbled in June, remaining atop the division shows clear progress as the season’s midpoint.

The Washington Nationals are Quietly Positioned for Success

The Washington Nationals have faced challenges since their 2019 World Series win. Despite efforts to rebuild, the organization has consistently finished in the bottom half of the division in recent years. Currently in fourth place, the Nationals may not be in the playoff picture, but they are showing significant improvement.

After entering the 2025 All-Star break with a 38-57 record and in last place in the division, the Nationals have turned things around this season, sitting at 45-43. Washington has proven itself to be a solid team that, with a successful second half of the season, could push itself into the postseason.

The Nationals’ offense has excelled this season. The team is hitting .248 (10th) and is tied for the most RBIs, marking a 19-spot jump in RBI rankings from last year. CJ Abrams leads the team with a .273 average, while James Wood leads in home runs (22) and RBIs (55). These offensive numbers have helped the Nationals surpass expectations as they enter July and maintain playoff hopes.

Along with offensive gains, the Nationals’ pitching has improved since 2025. The team had the second-worst ERA at 5.35 and allowed the second-highest opponent batting average at .268 last season. In 2026, the Nationals lowered their ERA to 4.63 and cut opponents’ batting average by 12 points to .256.

Foster Griffin has been a standout for the Nationals, posting a 2.93 ERA and holding hitters to a .210 average this season. To further strengthen the team, adding depth to the pitching rotation is essential. While Griffin has excelled, adding more high-caliber pitchers could boost the Nationals’ playoff chances.

Although the Nationals are not currently in a playoff spot, their progress this season is clear. Continued improvement in pitching and offense, and a dominant second half could help Washington secure a postseason berth for the first time since their World Series title.