The Golden State Warriors just wrapped up their final preseason game against Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs.
The No. 1 pick definitely made a good enough impression to forget about his Summer League games. Along with Wembanyama, the Warriors have a lot to be excited about after their five preseason games. After getting a solid sample size of what this team will look like this year, it’s time to outline the entire season and make some bold predictions.
Overall Outlook
The Warriors had a very successful preseason, and it’s not even about nearly finishing undefeated. The roster looks like it goes at least 11 or 12 deep. After Friday’s game against the Spurs, they released Rudy Gay and Rodney McGruder. Both were signed to a training-camp deal, but the team decided to shed a bit of tax money.
Entering the season with 13 roster spots filled isn’t ideal, but it shows how confident they are in who they have. They have two weeks to get a 14th roster spot, and the general belief is that Gay or McGruder still have a chance to get it. It would be surprising if another name enters that conversation, but any possibility cannot be ruled out.
The Golden State Warriors are releasing Rudy Gay and Rodney McGruder, sources tell me and @anthonyVslater. This trims Warriors’ standard deals to 13 players, giving extra roster/financial flexibility, and they will add the 14th spot within first two weeks of season. pic.twitter.com/tWRPSrFpYH
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) October 21, 2023
Depth Chart
The Warriors enter the season small, but very skilled with tons of IQ. They are high on the Chris Paul and Dario Šarić additions, and they expect youngsters like Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody to take sizable leaps. Kuminga ended the preseason as the second-leading scorer in the league. He won’t be close to that kind of production, but the growth of his game is definitely apparent. His impact will be felt if he exceeds expectations or falls short. Moody is the main shooting threat off the bench, to add to his hustle and energy.
Andrew Wiggins will be playing more than 37 games, and Trayce Jackson-Davis showed he’s ready for regular-season minutes. With the Warriors’ lack of size and paint presence, TJD could find himself making impact earlier than expected.
You see bigs spin off to get loose for a lob.
You NEVER see bigs spin off to rotate and block a shot. Good lord lol pic.twitter.com/wxR4y8Yd6Q
— Joe Viray (@JoeVirayNBA) October 21, 2023
Draymond's the only one on this team that should have the license to help off the strong-side corner.
TJD says "Ayy yo how about me though?" pic.twitter.com/rMg3AqDWZs
— Joe Viray (@JoeVirayNBA) October 21, 2023
Stephen Curry and Chris Paul have been gaining chemistry since the trade happened and Klay Thompson is in shape. The contract extension talks have a possibility of being a distraction, but faith should be put into the relationship Thompson has with the organization. Kevon Looney is and will always be an important piece to the puzzle. Lastly, Draymond Green‘s fit needs to be figured out as he comes back from injury.
Draymond Green has advanced to team practice and 5-on-5 work, per Warriors. No official word on his status for Tuesday’s opener against Suns, but he’s getting close.
— Anthony Slater (@anthonyVslater) October 22, 2023
Keys to a Successful Season
One thing that is most noticeable with this team is that the chemistry and vibes seem to be back to normal. Comparing with what last year’s team had to go through, this year’s squad looks like they enjoy playing together. Sometimes, this kind of energy switch is just what a team needs to propel forward. It will especially make a difference when they’re on the road. The Warriors had an abysmal 11-30 record on the road last season.
As mentioned before, this team is small. They don’t have a player taller than 6’10, and that won’t be changing unless the 14th spot is a big center. Finishing possessions with tough defense and rebounding will be a struggle against bigger teams. The 2022 team was able to do enough with Wiggins, Otto Porter and Gary Payton II as wings on the boards.
That responsibility will be on Thompson and Kuminga, as Kerr alluded to Thompson guarding some fours this season. The Warriors will need another iron-man type season from Looney. They will also need Draymond to stay relatively healthy as well, a task that’s getting harder every year.
The Warriors have distinct X-factors that don’t pertain to their core. Will the CP3 experiment work? Are the young guys ready to take the next step? None of these side stories will be important unless the core of Curry, Thompson and Green are still playing at a championship level. The ceiling is already high if all three are still elite at what they do. Guys like Kuminga and CP3 only raise that ceiling higher if they become what the team needs.
Predictions
What’s a good preview article without some hot takes and predictions? These will be in order of spiciness. We’ll start it off mild, and then ramp it up.
Prediction #1: The Chris Paul addition will work
There’s not exactly a number or a specific stat that will prove this prediction right or wrong other than wins. Paul was brought in to help the core win now. The organization’s relationship with Jordan Poole was unfixable. Dunleavy and the front office made the quick pivot, and it’s bearing some fruit already. Paul fits with different lineups and Kerr praises him for his ability to get the team organized. Along with running a lot of pick and roll, he’ll be a connector.
The main component to watch for is how the team operates with Paul when Draymond comes back. They were not able to get any minutes together in the preseason due to Green’s ankle injury.
Did anyone say Chris Paul for Sixth Man of the Year?
Prediction #2: The Warriors will be a top-four seed in the West
The Warriors started last season 3-7, and were a complete mess on the road. They had a bench unit that featured Kuminga at the three, JaMychal Green at the four, and James Wiseman at the five. It’s safe to say that was not a great combination of players. They dealt Wiseman at the deadline because they finally realized he could not be in their plans as an organization.
This is a bet that the team enters the season with a new motivation and refreshed bodies. In 2022, they came off an eventful offseason after a long, grueling title run into mid-June. The Draymond-Poole incident occurred, and they spent the entire rest of the season trying to pick up the pieces.
With a more balanced roster and clear roles established, they should close in on 50 wins. That entire mess that took the Lakers to six games won 44 games last year. The new additions should add 4-to-5 wins, even with a competitive Western Conference. Health is the only factor that can affect this prediction.
Prediction #3: Kerr will deploy at least 7 different closing lineups
The Warriors like to change their starting lineup depending on matchups, especially in the playoffs. With Chris Paul entering the fold, Kerr mentioned that he has “six starters”. The starting lineup won’t matter as much as the closing lineup, and that’s when it starts to get tricky. No longer are the days where they can have Kevin Durant and Andre Iguodala complete their lineups.
There will be nights where Looney and Green can’t close a game because there’s not enough offense. On the other hand, Klay might be having a poor performance on both ends, which might call for CP3 or Kuminga to replace him. Maybe they might need a stretch big on the floor to close a game, and that’s where Šarić can be used.
Either way, the closing lineup is far from set in stone, so the team has to be ready to roll with those tough decisions and adapt when things aren’t working.
Prediction #4: Two Warriors will be on the All-Defensive team
I couldn’t decide on which prediction is spicier, this one or No. 5. In the 2021-2022 season, Draymond Green was in the discussion for Defensive Player of the Year. He later on got injured and only played 46 games, and Marcus Smart ended up winning the award. Part of the reason why there’s still faith that this team can be a top-10 defense again is mostly because of Green.
His season last year was another roller coaster, but what can’t be denied is his impact on the defensive end. The real question is— which other Warrior has a chance of joining him?
There are three candidates: Andrew Wiggins, Jonathan Kuminga and Gary Payton II. I would be petitioning for Kevon Looney, but he’ll never be able to rack up the steals and blocks to be in the conversation (even though the All-Defensive teams always end up being a reputation contest, but that’s another topic).
It really just depends if Wiggins is up to the task and motivated. He can have a stretch of games where he’s not totally focused. Wiggins was undoubtedly the second-best player behind Curry during their Finals run in 2022, and it was mostly because of his stout defense on guys like Luka Dončić and Jayson Tatum. It’s noticeable for him especially with his physical capabilities.
For Kuminga and Payton II, it will be more about how many minutes they get. The more minutes they get, the more opportunity they have to show their skills and make and impact. With the Warriors having a lot of nationally televised games, the exposure to voters and fans is important as well.
Prediction #5: The Warriors will meet the Celtics for a Finals rematch
Well, we were all waiting for it, right? After acquiring Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porziņģis, the Celtics and Bucks are the two top dogs in the East. Those two teams will be duking it out throughout the season and definitely in the playoffs.
In the West, the Warriors will seemingly have to get through the Nuggets, Lakers, Suns and another surprise team like the Kings last year. The path is difficult, but not impossible.
The Nuggets lost some depth and have to rely on new, young rotation pieces.
The Lakers have mostly the same core, but the Warriors changed their entire roster to better fit together. A growth from Kuminga helps in that particular matchup more than anything.
The Suns are a wild card. Like other super teams in the past, will they be able to gel and make it work in time for a playoff run? Will Durant be healthy enough? Is this team going to defend? Who are their best eight or nine guys for a playoff rotation?
The Warriors are trying to recreate the magic they found in 2021-2022. On paper and in the preseason, it seems as though they found a rendition of it. With new motivations and intriguing pieces bolstering the team, that’s all that they need to start the climb up the mountain again.
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