The regular season is upon us. Merry Grizzmas to all who celebrate!
Finally, meaningful NBA basketball is back— no more pretending that Summer League and preseason are significant. The games start to count…and the road to redemption for the Memphis Grizzlies after last season’s terrible outcome begins.
But it’s not all sunshine and rainbows this Grizzmas. Jaren Jackson Jr. and Luke Kennard join the injured reserve for opening night against the Utah Jazz, casting very familiar health-related doubt on what to expect from this Memphis team.
Sure, Ja Morant and Desmond Bane are there, as are Marcus Smart and one of the Rookie of the Year favorites Zach Edey. But will Santi Aldama channel his Team Spain energy into the NBA for the first time? Who will make up the reserve unit to begin the campaign with Kennard alongside GG Jackson and Vince Williams Jr.?
Fair questions, to be sure. Ones that a team that desperately needs a hot start surely doesn’t want to have to answer.
Ahead of the start of another roller coaster ride of a season, here are two bold predictions for the 2024-2025 NBA season for the Memphis Grizzlies.
Memphis will finish no worse than 2nd in the Western Conference*
*If healthy
The asterisk there is doing an immense amount of heavy lifting. The team is already not at full strength. While only GG Jackson figures to miss beyond the next few weeks with his recovery from foot surgery, the concern about long-term impacts is fair.
However, other teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder are already dealing with health issues too. And when Memphis is “healthy” — OK, when Jaren Jackson Jr. returns, presumably this weekend — their core is as good as any in the NBA.
This is why this prediction, while perhaps not as bold to Grizzlies followers as it could be nationally, is one to believe in. Before the debacle that was the 2023-2024 regular season, in the two years prior Memphis was the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. They held “Memphis Grizzlies” days on ESPN. Ja Morant was the future of the NBA. Life was good.
Until, of course, it wasn’t— at least in Grizzlies land.
Replace Dillon Brooks with Marcus Smart? You’ve theoretically upgraded— a player who will shoot less than Brooks and facilitate more. In fact, twice as much— Smart’s career 21.7% assist rate is almost double that of Brooks’ 10.4%. Doing that while still defending at a comparable level should — SHOULD — equate to better offensive viability.
Replace Steven Adams with Zach Edey— the reigning two-time National Player of the Year in college basketball? What you lose admittedly in veteran experience and underrated contributions, especially as a rebounder, you gain in offensive viability.
Grizzlies General Manager Zach Kleiman said it himself. Opposing teams must deal with Edey’s size and skill defensively and offensively. While Memphis has to adjust potentially defensively to switches and pick-and-roll coverage, opponents must account for the “Big Mane”.
And of course, the Ja Morant/Desmond Bane/Jaren Jackson Jr. trio is one of the best in the league. Between superstar Morant’s impending “revenge tour” and the former/potential All-Stars in Bane and Jackson Jr., this group only needs role players to achieve within their roles for success.
Depth matters in the NBA. Especially on a team where injuries seem to have a larger impact than normal for whatever reason. But assuming Jaren is back sooner rather than later, few starting fives in the NBA should be able to match Memphis. Phoenix has Mike Budenholzer as their head coach now and a talented roster that is less deep than Memphis beyond their top five. Oklahoma City has youth on their side and athleticism but experienced abnormally good health luck last year. Denver is weaker, and Dallas is flawed.
The Grizzlies have a window to return to the top of the West. And they will.
Desmond Bane will win Most Improved Player
Hey, bold is the name of the game.
While comparing Desmond Bane’s numbers at this stage of his career in the NBA to those of James Harden at that same time, you’d see players with similar stats. Admittedly Bane is two years older than Harden was at that stage. And how they did it was very different, per Basketball Reference, Harden a master of free-throw generation, Bane a superior three-point sniper. But both averaged exactly 33.8 points per 100 possessions. Both averaged exactly 6.3 rebounds per 100 possessions. And Bane posted 7.8 assists per 100 possessions to Harden’s 7.6.
Their true shooting percentage was identical (60%). And that was again through Harden’s legendary charity-stripe acumen. Bane outshot “The Beard” both beyond the arc (38.1% to 36.8%) and more noticeably on two-point attempts (53.6% to 47.7%).
All this data points to a fun truth for Grizzlies fans:
A James Harden-esque player suits up for Memphis. All he needs is a larger opportunity…which may well be coming.
The Grizzlies are installing a new offense where ball movement, facilitation, and most importantly more possessions through a faster pace reign supreme. Greater variety means greater opportunity for Bane, both with Morant and without him. It will be on Desmond Bane to carry the offense through the Ja-less moments. He must score at all three levels, finding open shooters and cutters with increased motion. Bane will have the task of running off rebounds and pushing tempo while still being a marksman from beyond the arc.
https://twitter.com/DamichaelC/status/1846198131496489105
Ja Morant won this award in 2021-2022. He then gave it to Desmond Bane because he felt he deserved it more. What exactly it means to be “Most Improved Player” is very much up for debate. Victor Wembanyama is the current betting favorite, which makes that contention clear. But Bane, who has flown under the NBA radar for much of his career (especially with player rankings), just needs a chance alongside a complete roster to show exactly what he can do.
Beyond Ja Morant’s presence, the biggest key to a contending Grizzlies season is Bane getting that chance. If it happens, the awards — and recognition that comes with it — should roll in.
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