Caleb Downs very clearly has “it.”
It’s extremely premature to make a claim as bold as “best in a decade” before a draft pick touches the field in training camp, let alone at game speed. However, some people have “it”—an aura people can see on film and in real game time. Every draft has a prospect or two with “it” inside of them, and any team would be blessed to acquire those prospects with a pick outside of the single digits.
The Dallas Cowboys got that blessing. They took it swiftly.
Ask anyone who’s watched him for more than 25 seconds. In fact, no Cowboys draft prospect has had this much “it” coursing through them in over a decade.
The Consensus Best
The great thing about the NFL Draft process is that it’s littered with nuance.
Mock drafts, the night itself—no one will ever admit it, but the whole thing is one big game of educated guessing. That’s why so many No. 1 picks end up not fulfilling their potential. It’s why all-pro’s like Dak Prescott end up as fourth-rounders in their draft classes. People are inferring potential based on tape, environment, and even straight vibes.
With guesses comes nuance. Conversely, where there’s nuance, there’s no consensus.
….. don’t tell that to Caleb Downs. With him, there was nothing but consensus. From fans, to draft experts, to coaches—former and current—there was a label that stuck all the way to draft night: best defensive prospect. Some were less blunt; others took it further—as far as saying, “Vegas odds on the guy with the best chance to get a gold jacket, it’s Downs” — but the premise was clear.
From the minute his season ended in January, Downs was lined up as the best defender in the class. That premise only grew stronger over time, largely due to what Downs put on tape.
It’s a wonder, really, how that tape got him to pick 11. The Cowboys won’t complain, though.
Rarefied Dallas Air
Caleb Downs was so good that he made Dallas do a few things they haven’t done in a long time.
The first of those things was trading up to snag the Ohio State product. Dallas isn’t the type of team to trade up and take prospects from others. In fact, their best draft picks usually fall into their lap, going way later than they likely ever should have. CeeDee Lamb in 2020 and Micah Parsons in 2021 are prime examples of this.
One could suggest Downs falls into that category, but in this instance, the Cowboys were aggressive in their pursuit of him. They stayed exactly where they originally might have been for Lamb, actually traded back in 2021, and ended up with Parsons anyway. In contrast, Dallas moved up and gave up additional draft capital to acquire Downs.
The last time they did this was in 2012, ironically enough, for another DB—LSU’s Morris Claiborne. In fact, in the last 20 years, Dallas has traded up five times in the first round—four of those players played defense, with the offensive outlier being Dez Bryant in 2010.
The Number One
The other thing the Cowboys did ties back to the whole “consensus best” talk.
Every year, draft experts rank prospects within their positions. Downs, for example, was the clear No. 1 safety in this year’s class. With Dallas picking him, it’s the first time they picked a player who was the No. 1 prospect in their position group since Ezekiel Elliott in 2016. That’s a product of a few things—Dallas being in the mid-20’s for most of that time being the most prominent of them.
However, they’ve had chances to do this earlier. Just last year, Grey Zabel was the No. 1 guard in the draft class and was available at pick 12. However, the Cowboys went after Tyler Booker, which, in fairness, is working out pretty well for them.
Does It Work Out?
Of course, with all the talk of how amazing he is, Downs could not live up to the hype. He could fizzle out, not make much impact, and the Dallas Cowboys could have egg on their face a decade from now.
However, given what he’s shown on tape, what the scouts say, and what the coaches say, the chances of that happening are slim to none.
Caleb Downs is as close to surefire as it gets in a game of guesses.
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