When the Toronto Raptors selected Scottie Barnes with the No. 4 pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, some questioned the decision. Many expected Jalen Suggs, the No. 5 pick in that draft, to be the Kyle Lowry replacement at the point guard position.
Three years later, the 23-year-old Barnes has silenced critics and positioned himself as the centerpiece of the franchise’s future. Barnes earned his first All-Star nod in 2024 while showcasing a versatile two-way game built on defense, playmaking, and an ever-growing scoring arsenal.
The question now is not whether Barnes is good, that’s been settled, but whether he can cross the threshold from All-Star to superstar in the 2025-26 season.
Expanding the Offensive Arsenal
Barnes has steadily polished his offensive game. Last year, he averaged 19.3 points per game, just shy of his career high, 19.9. He was also slightly less efficient from three-point range than in years prior, but had greater comfort creating in isolation. His ability to attack mismatches, run the offense as a point forward, and finish through contact has made him the Raptors’ most reliable option in crunch time.
To make the superstar leap, Barnes must force opposing defenses to gameplan around him nightly. To get to that point means Barnes is consistently knocking down jumpers, demanding double-teams in the post, and elevating teammates by forcing rotations.
Defensive Backbone
Toronto’s identity has long centered around defense, and Barnes embodies that tradition. His combination of size, length, and lateral quickness allows him to guard all five positions. He thrives as a help defender, rotates intelligently, and uses his length to disrupt passing lanes. Nearly every night, Barnes took it upon himself to guard the opposing team’s best player, whether it was guards like Steph Curry or centers like Nikola Jokic.
Last season, he ranked in the top-12 in steals plus blocks per game, underlining his impact as a defensive playmaker. If he continues to anchor Toronto’s defense while carrying a heavier offensive load, the superstar conversation becomes unavoidable.
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Leadership and Intangibles
Barnes has always played with infectious energy. What’s changing is his role as the locker room’s emotional leader. With veterans like Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet leaving in recent years, Barnes has inherited the responsibility of setting the tone for a young roster.
Head coach Darko Rajaković has repeatedly praised Barnes’ work ethic and willingness to take ownership. If Barnes can blend production with leadership, he can transform the Raptors from a rebuilding team into a legitimate playoff contender.
Path to Superstar Status
The Eastern Conference is wide open, beyond a few established contenders. Injuries and roster turnover have created opportunities for young stars to seize the spotlight. For Barnes, the formula is straightforward: Elevate his scoring to the mid-20s per game, maintain elite defense, and carry Toronto to a top-six playoff seed.
If he does that, his rise from Rookie of the Year to full-fledged superstar could become one of the defining storylines of the 2025-26 season.
Betting on Barnes
The Raptors’ future hinges on Barnes’ ceiling. If he settles as a strong All-Star, Toronto remains competitive. If he ascends to superstardom, the franchise may have found its next Kawhi Leonard-like figure, a player who can shift the team’s trajectory and reinsert them into championship conversations.
There is no doubt Barnes has the tools, however this season will reveal whether he also has the timing.
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