The Dallas Mavericks’ season last year started out wild. After the basketball gods blessed them with winning the NBA draft lottery with just a 1.8% chance in 2025, the Mavericks selected future Rookie of the Year Cooper Flagg with the first pick. Analysts started dreaming right away. ESPN saw a 41-win season coming. Flagg alongside Anthony Davis, the return of Kyrie Irving? It was supposed to be must-watch TV.
Then, the season happened. Irving didn’t play a minute; Davis barely outdid him and was traded in February. While Flagg lived up to expectations, those around him did not. That combination led to a 26-win season, Dallas’ worst in years.
However, this season feels like it will deliver a bit of what last year promised. With Irving, without a doubt, ready for the year, Flagg growing ahead of year two and a stable mix of young and old, things don’t look bleak for the Mavericks.
Things are looking up in Dallas.
Biggest Offseason Loss: Klay Thompson
One of the great things about this Mavericks team is that they haven’t had to make many cuts this offseason. Despite plenty of speculation that suggested they may have had to do so, they ended up keeping their core.
Players like Naji Marshall and Daniel Gafford were heavily involved in trade discussions throughout the offseason. Ultimately, they stayed. In fact, Marshall and Gafford actually signed contract extensions this offseason, extending their tenures with the team.
Instead, Klay Thompson went to the Heat after his contract was bought out. Khris Middleton and Ryan Nembhard also departed in trades. Of those three, last year’s 25th-ranked 3-point shooting team will likely miss Thompson the most. He was their second-best shooter last season, making 38.3% of his attempts from beyond the arc.
There’s no doubt that Dallas will miss that production as it looks to move forward. However, if their biggest offseason addition is any indication, the team will find a way to make it work.
Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Dusty May
In 2012, NSYNC fans birthed the play-on-words “It’s Gonna Be May”. In 2026, the Dallas Mavericks used it to decide their next head coach.
Dusty May has taken his services to the NBA, fresh off winning a national championship with Michigan. He is easily the biggest head coaching hire the Mavericks have had in a while and their biggest move of the offseason.
When May was hired to Michigan in 2024, he inherited a team that went 8-24 and missed March Madness all together. In year one, he led them to a 27-10 record, a Big Ten title and a Sweet 16 appearance. The next year they went 37-3 and had a March Madness run where his Wolverines outlasted everyone.
Now, he’ll be looking to do the same with Dallas.
On another note, is anyone a fan of the lob culture Dallas had going in 2024? May might just bring a little of that back, as that’s what he had going on for Michigan.
Mavericks’ Best-Case Scenario Outcome
Dusty May takes to the speed of the NBA like a duck to water. Cooper Flagg makes a massive leap in year two and potentially is at the MVP roundtable. Kyrie Irving returns to form, Dereck Lively stays healthy and rookies Morez Johnson Jr. and Sergio De Larrea are immediate playmakers.
At that point, the Mavericks could be a team with incredible big man depth, one of the great young talents of the century and two very capable floor generals. This is even before guys like Max Christie, Naji Marshall and P.J. Washington enter the chat.
All that being molded by one of the hottest coaching prospects of this hiring cycle? It would not be outlandish to say a top-4 seed and a run to the Western Conference Finals is a very real possibility for Dallas.
Mavericks’ Worst-Case Scenario Outcome
Now, let’s get a little gloomy.
Maybe May doesn’t get adjusted quickly. That’s fine, some coaches go through the same thing. Then, in addition to that, if Flagg doesn’t improve in his second year, sophomore slumps can happen.
Irving and Lively potentially could not be the same after the injuries, one of Washington/Marshall/Christie (or multiple) regresses or gets hurt themselves and the rookies are slow to adjust as well. At that point, Dallas is probably staring down the barrel of another 25-30 win year.
It wouldn’t be the absolute end of the world, but it would be the worst-case scenario. Dallas fans don’t want to sit through another season like last year.
The Mavericks’ Biggest Question
Dusty May’s teams in college had two staples surrounding them: 3-point shooting and rebounding. All but one of his teams, the 2024-25 Michigan team, shot 35% or more from 3-point land. All but one of his teams, his very first in 21-22 with FAU, averaged 35+ rebounds a game.
The rebounding will not be an issue, given the personnel on the Mavericks roster. The 3-point shooting is where we find our biggest question. Can May turn this team into an average 3-point shooting team, at the very least?
Again, losing a guy like Thompson hurts in a big way. However, the acquisition of Zaccharie Risacher, who shot 36% from beyond the arc last year, will certainly help. Otherwise, outside of Max Christie, who shot 40% from beyond the arc last year, the Mavs have to look in the mirror and fix this issue.
If they fix that, who knows what the season has in store.
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