The Houston Rockets’ Finals hopes last season seemingly vanished before the first tip-off.
After acquiring future Hall of Famer Kevin Durant, many viewed Houston as a true contender. But nearly a month before the regular season, former All-Star point guard Fred VanVleet tore his ACL.
The injury crippled the Rockets, leaving them without a court general, and the offense paid dearly.
After January 1, they were bottom five in points per game, 3-pointers made and 3-point percentage.
In VanVleet’s absence, young star and newly-paid Amen Thompson was stuck with point guard duties—a role he wasn’t ready for as a primary forward. Along with Thompson taking point responsibilities was the youthful sharpshooter Reed Sheppard, whose lack of size, strength and athleticism were his downfall.
Kevin Durant, even without many positive offensive players around him, was still his All-NBA self at 37. Durant averaged 26 a night, shooting an exceptional 41.3% from deep and a +6.0 relative true shooting percentage. He did this all while playing his most games since 2019.
As for the other Houston All-Star, Alperen Sengun, a roller coaster of a season is an understatement. Sengun was phenomenal early in the season, a top-10 MVP candidate in December, and arguably the engine of the team with the second-highest NET rating in the NBA.
Sengun and Steven Adams were an offensive vacuum inside. Before Adams’ season-ending injury in January, the Rockets were on pace for the all-time best offensive rebound percentage (40.8%).
It was unorthodox, but Houston made it work early in the season. But with Adams and VanVleet out, the offensive struggles became too much to overcome. Additionally, Sengun’s athletic struggles became a problem on both ends of the court.
Though they didn’t make any groundbreaking moves this offseason, the moves on the margins and in health can go a long way, especially compared to their 2026 Round 1 exit to the Luka Dončić-less Los Angeles Lakers.
Rockets’ Biggest Offseason Loss: Dorian Finney-Smith
Houston kept a very similar roster, losing only Finney-Smith and Josh Okogie.
The 2025 splash move free agent Dorian Finney-Smith was a complete failure for the Rockets last season. He averaged a career-low 3.3 points a night, played only 37 games, and shot 27.0% from three.
His $53 million deal was considered a nice signing at the time, coming off of a career year with the Lakers in 2024-25.
He didn’t make an impact for Houston last season, but given his multiple seasons of 39+% from three and solid defense, there was always a chance of a bounce-back given a full recovery.
As for Josh Okogie, his play hindered the offense. His 4.5 points per game, 47.4% from two, and 1.9 drives on average were among the worst on the team.
Based on their performances last year, Houston won’t miss these two much.
Rockets’ Biggest Offseason Addition: Marcus Smart
Despite some thinking his prime was behind him, Marcus Smart shined last season. For the Lakers, Smart was one of the heroes to propel them past Houston in the first round.
Against the Rockets in the playoffs, Smart scored nearly 15 points per game, shot almost 45% from deep and averaged a monstrous 4.4 steals and blocks. He stepped up mightily in Dončić’s absence, providing ball-handling and pick-and-roll play while maintaining much of his DPOY-caliber defense.
Getting this version of Smart in 2026 would be momentous for Houston. Adding a secondary ball handler who can also be reliable from behind the arc gives the Rockets’ offense a floor they didn’t have before.
They also added veteran Bogdan Bogdanović. At this point in his career, Bogdanović will likely slot in as a limited-minutes forward. But with his career 38.1% shooting, he could be a hot hand to help the offense when it’s cold.
Neither signing is breaking news, but Houston did an outstanding job identifying and addressing its needs on the margins.
Rockets’ Best-Case Scenario Outcome
When health becomes the biggest factor, the scale can tip either way drastically. But for Houston, a full offseason of recovery is all they can ask for.
The return of Steven Adams and Fred VanVleet should lift the offense to the lofty expectations set in 2025. Further, their young core of Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, Jabari Smith Jr. and even Reed Sheppard should all be in much more comfortable situations to maximize their talents.
Thompson’s offensive leap is the biggest factor. Media Day reports indicate the All-Defense alum has shown growth there, among other things. Thompson’s supreme athleticism and defense got him paid, but his growth as an on-ball driver, jump shooter and shot creator will elevate him to the All-NBA potential that’s been anticipated.
Adams’s return will presumably help Sengun slide back into a more natural position on both ends. He can focus on his strengths, such as smooth ball handling, post playmaking and once-elite mid-range shooting at 47%.
Then, the glue to put it all together: KD. Durant, sustaining his historic scoring and improved passing, will be the steady hand to guide the Rockets into a premier playoff spot.
From there, the sky’s the limit, and in a competitive Western Conference, Houston has enough unique matchups to give any team a competitive playoff series.
Rockets’ Worst-Case Scenario Outcome
As stated, health is everything for every team, but especially Houston. VanVleet (32) and Adams (33) are both at an age where a significant injury can ruin a career.
VanVleet, at just 6-foot, a substantial loss of burst may leave his inside-the-arc game nonexistent. In his last healthy season, he led the team in assists on drives and ranked second in drives per game. If he cannot bring the same floor general operation as before, many of last season’s problems could resurface.
A slower, more offensive-slanted Adams would also be catastrophic. They could be forced to separate Sengun and Adams’ court time and avoid the risk of two slow-footed bigs on at once. With Sengun now back into his late-2026 situation, he will once again be forced into pick-and-rolls continuously. Last season, he averaged the fifth most points per game as the drop big in the play.
Amen Thompson’s offensive leap also isn’t guaranteed. He consistently increased his scoring and assist numbers in the expanded creating role, but his efficiency hasn’t evolved enough. Thompson is yet to shoot above 28% from three or 36% in the long mid-range.
A version of Thompson reminiscent of the past two seasons won’t move the needle for the offense needed for an extended playoff push.
And, though it’s unwise to question his longevity, it may be unrealistic to depend on a 38-year-old KD to carry the offense.
With bottom-of-the-barrel Rockets basketball shown last season, this season’s worst-case scenario may end as sadly as last season.
Rockets’ Biggest Question Heading Into 2026-27 Season
Undoubtedly, the biggest question for the Houston Rockets this season is how much Amen Thompson progresses. The 4th overall pick from 2023 has the tools to become one of the top 10 or 15 players in the NBA, and now, at 23, time is ticking to develop those talents.
Perhaps less primary playmaking responsibility will be better for Thompson. It could let him keep his off-ball dominance as a cutter while giving him more easy catch-and-shoot chances. VanVleet will not be the point guard forever, but for now, setting up more easy buckets for the twin may be exactly what’s missing.
A more efficient Thompson, who finally shows at least some danger from deep, could be the team’s best player.
His growth, or lack thereof, will help determine if the Rockets are a young team with high potential, or a perennial early postseason exit.
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