Holiday’s Hall-of-Fame Case is Far from Certain

The Basketball Hall of Fame is often seen as one of the easiest to get into compared to other sports. Boston Celtics star Jrue Holiday should never be a part of that group.

According to Basketball-Reference, Holiday has a 1.67% chance to make the Hall of Fame. Isaiah Thomas, Trae Young, Bradley Beal and Domantas Sabonis are active players that have higher percentages on the website.

Holiday’s Hall-of-Fame Comparisons

At this point in Holiday’s career, he will likely not make another NBA All-Star appearance.

According to StatMuse, 22 players have entered the Hall of Fame by making two or fewer All-Star games. Nineteen of them spent the majority of their careers before the NBA/ABA merger or are international players. The three remaining are Calvin Murphy, Dennis Rodman and Bill Walton. 

Murphy and Walton were both inducted in 1993 despite not having the strongest NBA careers. Walton won an MVP, two championships, a Finals MVP and Sixth Man of the Year. Due to injuries, he only played 468 games, the fewest by any Hall of Famer who didn’t play before the ABA merger or wasn’t international. 

Murphy, meanwhile, doesn’t have much on his NBA resume, being a one-time All-Star. The 5-foot-9 guard scored more than 20 points a game four times in his 13 seasons.

A key reason why both made it into the Hall is because of their NCAA careers. At UCLA, Walton secured two NCAA championships, three Naismith Awards, two AP Player of the Year Awards and more. He also averaged 20.3 points and 15.7 rebounds per game over three seasons.

Murphy scored 33.1 points per game at Niagara and earned an NCAA All-Region Team selection in his three seasons. He could be considered one of the weakest players in the Hall of Fame, a fact that could support Holiday’s case. Neither guard made an All-NBA team but Holiday has a better resume than the former Rockets star.

Similar Players Not in the Hall of Fame

Four players with similar careers to Holiday who have not made the Hall of Fame: Bill Laimbeer, Richard Hamilton, Alvin Robertson and Norm Nixon.

Laimbeer anchored the gritty Pistons teams that won championships in 1989 and 1990. A role similar to what Holiday has achieved with the Bucks and Celtics but as a guard. Laimbeer made twice the All-Star games as Holiday but never earned an All-Defensive team. Holiday has made six with the possibility of adding more.

Norm Nixon made two All-Star games and helped the Lakers win two championships. The same accolades as Holiday without the defensive recognition.

Richard Hamilton had 10 straight seasons averaging over 17 points, which helped him earn three All-Star games and win a 2004 championship with Detroit. He played a pivotal role that helped the Pistons make deep playoff runs. 

Unlike the others, however, Alvin Robertson never won an NBA championship but has racked up defensive awards like Holiday. He earned six All-Defensive team selections, a Defensive Player of the Year Award, and led the league in steals three times. Robertson made four All-Star games and secured one All-NBA team, giving him a better defensive career than Holiday but never advanced past the first round of the playoffs.

Better Players Not in the Hall of Fame

Other NBA players eligible for the Hall of Fame who could be considered better than Holiday include Shawn Marion, Shawn Kemp, Jermaine O’Neal, Amar’e Stoudemire and Anfernee Hardaway. All made more than four All-Star appearances and two All-NBA teams, though none of the five ever won a championship.

Holiday’s HOF Chances

Holiday never had the all-around dominance to make an All-NBA team and was the third-best player on two championship teams. The lone case of an NBA player with a worse resume than Holiday, who played the majority of his career post-merger and is not international is Calvin Murphy. 

When Holiday becomes eligible to make the Hall of Fame, his odds will be higher than Basketball-Reference’s 1.67% chance. In the all-time rankings, Holiday may land around where Bill Laimbeer sits. The website places Laimbeer at 26% but should be ranked at roughly 15% with Horace Grant and Brad Daugherty.

Few players have at least two All-Star appearances, two NBA championships, and six All-Defensive team selections without making an All-NBA team or being a top-two player on a championship team. Holiday will have an argument when his time comes, but it’s going to be a difficult one.