The Phillies opened the year with a disastrous 9-19 start, leading to manager Rob Thomson‘s firing. They then hired Don Mattingly. Since then, the Phillies have made a dramatic turnaround, now sitting at 81-63, the fifth-best record in the National League. A fifth-straight appearance in the postseason seems to be the team’s destiny.
But the Phillies have struggled against some of the NL’s top contenders. While many of those games came during the team’s early-season slump, there’s still reasonable cause for concern. With the current postseason seeding, the Phillies would play the Cubs in the Wild Card series, a team they went just 1-6 against this season. If the Phillies beat the Cubs, they would go on to play the Brewers in the NLDS. Philly still has one more remaining series against the Brewers before the season ends, but lost the first set in June.
Mattingly’s squad is supremely talented, however, and has shown they can hang on against some of the best. A matchup against one of these teams could happen as soon as the first round, or as late as the NLCS. How can they neutralize these elite teams in future postseason matchups?
Phillies Could Fight a Longtime Division Rival Again
Should the Phillies and Braves meet in October, it would be their third playoff matchup since the start of the 2020s. Philly has won the last two meetings, beating Atlanta in the NLDS in 2022 and 2023. The two series created many signature moments, from Rhys Hoskins’ bat spike in their first meeting to Bryce Harper’s two-homer game in their most recent duel.
But the Braves are just behind the Dodgers for the best record in baseball right now. And all year, Atlanta has managed to have the Phillies number, going 7-3 against them as of Sep 8. In all of those games, the Braves only allowed more than four runs once.
Despite that, the Phillies’ starting rotation provides them with a solid leg up over the Braves. Phillies’ starters have the best fWAR in baseball at 15.7, marking that as the obvious strength of the team. Atlanta’s rank is situated in the middle of the pack at 9.4. Chris Sale has shouldered the weight of their rotation, with 5.4 fWAR this season.
Key starters for the Braves like Spencer Strider and Reynaldo Lopez have spent much of the year injured. Strider, alongside young starters Hurston Waldrep and Spencer Schwellenbach, is expected to miss the rest of the season. Bryce Elder has been uneven after the All-Star break, with a 4.08 ERA in the second half and a 5.22 ERA in August. Martin Perez has been strong for Atlanta, but struggled in his most recent outing against the Phillies, allowing seven hits, four walks and four runs.
Showdowns Against the Central’s Best
At 88-56, the Brewers are shaping up to have the best record in baseball again. The Cubs are unlikely to catch up to them for the division title at 81-63, but represent direct competition for the Phillies for the top Wild Card spot. Philly has found no success against either team. If the current playoff seeding holds, they’ll be forced to confront both quickly.
Much like the Braves, starting pitching is the main advantage the Phillies hold over the Cubs. Chicago is bottom-five in the National League for starter fWAR at 4.8. An early-season Tommy John procedure to Cade Horton threw a wrench into the Cubs’ rotation plans. Since then, they have seen injuries hit important starters such as Edward Cabrera and Matthew Boyd. Other starters have struggled this year, such as Colin Rea with a 4.45 ERA and midseason acquisition David Peterson with a 4.58 ERA.
Against the Brewers, the Phillies would need to flex their power against Milwaukee’s staff. The Phillies and Brewers are tied in team slugging percentage at .400, roughly middle of the league. But Philly has the capability to out-homer the Brewers lineup. Milwaukee has the fewest home runs in baseball at 132, while the Phillies sit tied-ninth at 167. Jake Bauers, the Brewers’ team leader in home runs with 23, would only rank third in the Phillies lineup, behind Kyle Schwarber with 41 and Bryce Harper with 27.
A 2025 NLDS Rematch
The Phillies and Dodgers met in a hotly contested NLDS in 2025. Both were top-3 teams in baseball that year, separated by just three games. Despite the best efforts of the Phillies’ rotation, the Dodgers beat them in heartbreaking fashion, taking the series 3-1. But even without the then-injured Zack Wheeler, the Phillies’ rotation did its part to keep the Dodgers’ lineup at bay.
Christopher Sanchez led the way with a 2.25 ERA over two starts. Jesus Luzardo delivered a brilliant performance in Game 2, then pitched 1.2 solid innings of relief in Game 4. In Game 3, Aaron Nola and Ranger Suarez teamed up to allow just one run over seven innings of work.
A matchup between these teams wouldn’t happen until the NLCS this year, raising the stakes significantly. But the Phillies’ starters have found ways to neutralize the Dodgers’ elite bats. During the 2025 NLDS, only three Dodgers hitters had an OPS above .700. Dodgers mainstays Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and Will Smith all had an OPS under .700 against the Phillies. And league MVP Shohei Ohtani looked helpless, with a batting average of .056 and a paltry .206 OPS.
Neutralizing the Dodgers’ stars will be important in giving the Phillies a chance to win. Luckily for the Phillies, most of the same starters are still in their rotation. Although Suarez is no longer a Phillie, they’ll fill his place with postseason ace Zack Wheeler.
Notably, Shohei Ohtani will likely not pitch again this year. Ohtani has also had mixed results at the plate against the Phillies but, in turn, has had their lineup’s number as a pitcher. In 11 innings in the regular season and postseason, he’s allowed just three runs, walked just two and struck out 14. Of the Phillies’ current starting lineup, Luis Arraez is the only player with a hit against him.
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